1. Small science and technology companies under the large group of central enterprises
The company is the first enterprise in China to enter the field of intelligent transportation system integration. At the beginning of the listing, formerly known as Communication Technology Development, it was put under the control of China Shipping Group in 2011 and changed its name to China Shipping Technology. Since the beginning of this year, China Shipping Group has made a clear positioning for the company, that is, for the purpose of building the group's only science and technology resources platform (currently, it has handed over the trusteeship management right of China Shipping Information, another science and technology chemical company under the group, to the company). Actively develop shipping information-related business. Driven by the second transformation of the group, the company's internal organizational structure has also been adjusted to the establishment of the business department, and a new security department has been added to prepare for the company's future incentive, extension development and extension growth.
2. The business model and profit space calculation of Haitong supply chain platform company.
The construction and operation of Haitong platform is the first step after the company's transformation into the related business of the group. According to the contents of the announcement, the Haitong supply chain platform is jointly funded and built by China Shipping and China Shipping Technology, each holding 50% of the shares. China Shipping is included in the consolidated scope of the financial statements, and China Shipping Technology is an investment income behavior.
The establishment of a Haitong platform company is a substantial progress after the agreement signed by BABA, Container, Science and Technology. After the platform is online, it will carry out B2B docking with BABA's foreign trade platform. Through the diversion of Ali, Haitong will complete the customer service requirements related to shipping in the form of e-commerce. In a sense, the growth of BABA's customer flow to the foreign trade platform determines the development space of China Shipping-Haitong platform.
The essence of the business model of Haitong platform is to replace the original intermediate link of container service-freight forwarders through Internet technology, and the ability to integrate resources through the Internet to provide customers with more economical and quality services. According to our logical judgment, the development direction of Haitong platform in the future is likely to evolve into: 1) extending from full-box service to LCL service (improving freight forwarding function); 2) the platform is open, not only for off-line collection services (becoming freight forwarders). 3) airline designers: through the collection and integration of domestic high-quality airline resources, provide customers with more economical and reliable services, and revitalize the domestic shipping industry (beyond freight forwarders).
According to the results of the grass-roots survey of the freight forwarding industry, we carry out three kinds of forecasts of the market value of Haitong platform company in three aspects, such as 1) the internal volume of China Shipping, 2) the profit volume of Yidatong, and 3) the trade volume of Yidatong. And confirm each other. In the end, it is concluded that the profit space of Haitong platform in the future is about 900 million. With a net interest rate of 70% and a valuation of 15 times, the potential market capitalization of Haitong platform is 9 billion.
3. Profit forecast and investment advice
We expect the company's net profit in 2014-2016 to reach 0.54,0.65 and 87 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 0.18,0.22,0.29 yuan EPS in 2014-2016. According to the assumptions, we calculate by the method of partial valuation that the total market value of the company in the future is expected to reach 6.25 billion yuan, corresponding to the stock price of 20.63 yuan, giving a "recommended" rating for the first time.
4. Risk hint
Haitong operation is lower than expected risk, enterprise reform and transformation risk, performance growth does not meet the expected risk and so on.
