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期权异动 | 情绪逐渐降温,警惕短期回调

Options changes | Sentiment is gradually cooling down, be wary of short-term pullbacks

富途資訊 ·  Feb 19, 2021 21:54  · Exclusive

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Us Stock Intelligence Agent | Eli, Bayo

This article summarizes the latest large order changes in the option market for you.

By monitoring these market data, investors can use this often neglected information and formulate investment strategies.

The market price movement and option order flow on Thursday were similar to those on Wednesday. The buyer players who opened with PUT gathered to take advantage of the market correction to go short. By midday, the momentum of selling dried up, and the market ushered in another environment of stabilization within the day. Subsequently, in the follow-up market, the market momentum still received continued support and buying.

Emotionally

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The picture above shows AAII US stock retail investors' bullish (green) bearish (red) questionnaire on the stock market in the next six months. Source: AAII

Two consecutive days of intraday volatility effectively relieved short-term sentiment, but two days of selling did not have much impact on medium-term sentiment. According to the AAII sentiment indicator, bullish sentiment among individual users of US stocks continued to rise last week, and the latest bullish reading should cool down next week, given the short-term intraday volatility.

Is it still possible to trade bands?

This should be a concern for many traders right now, especially after a sell-off of positions in early trading yesterday (although the market rebounded after midday), but imagine how traders would deal with themselves if the decline continued to extend to the next trading day.

So yesterday's early correction should be interpreted as a wake-up call. If you are uncomfortable with the decline in early trading yesterday, you have exposed too much of your exposure. At present, Sister Hua's team will not carry out any band trading, taking chestnuts out of the fire to increase their risk exposure.

Now that some overheated stocks have cooled after months of soaring prices, the only thing we need to worry about is our own risk, not a race against a short-term bull market. If you have to force yourself to trade, the most opportunity that Sister Hua sees is the short speculation within the day, taking advantage of the excessive greed and spoiled mood of market traders (no longer satisfied with just making a profit. (but overnight wealth freedom) cautious participation and intervention. Most of the traders in the market have now experienced the "to da moon" of SPAC, and there are also lottery prices ranging from a few cents to $5 to $10 in a few days or weeks, all of which seem good, but once the core players in the market officially withdraw their money to create a panic correction, these traders will be on the verge of bankruptcy and their profits over the past few weeks will be torched. Therefore, in order to deal with the potential downward correction in the future, and to prevent the call options in hand from suddenly shrinking in the profit state, it is necessary to stop winning in time to reduce exposure risk or at least adopt some protective measures.

Changes in ETF options in the market on February 18th

Monday's options market volume reached 39 million contracts, 11% lower than the previous average, of which the subscription volume was slightly higher than the sell volume (17:10).

Changes in individual stock options in various sectors on February 18

The most active plates includePublic utilities (equity market hedge sector), financial and non-cyclical consumer sectors while medical and cyclical consumer sectorsTrading volume is relatively calm.

Of the 3792 stocks with only listed options, 935 (25 per cent) closed up and 2787 (73 per cent) closed down. Among the 500 stocks with the highest liquidity, 118 have higher implied volatility and 333 have lower implied volatility on the 30th. The stocks that have detected transaction changes include:$Churchill Capital Corp IV (CCIV.US) $, $Riot Blockchain (RIOT.US) $, $Walmart Inc (WMT.US) $, $QuantumScape Corp (QS.US) $$SOS Ltd (SOS.US) $等。

Science and technology stock

Industrial stock

Cyclical consumer stock

Financial stocks

Communications Unit

Medical and Health Unit

Energy stocks

PremisesProperty stock

Building Materials Unit

Defensive consumer stock

Public utilities unit

The option tool is flexible and easy to use, and it is considered to be the most perfect trading tool in the financial market so far. small funds can quickly accumulate wealth through accurate judgment using non-linear leverage. large funds can achieve stable returns through the comprehensive application of multiple strategies across bull-bear and shock markets. But we also need to see the buyer's risk of options (ordinary investors are careful to be sellers of options, with limited returns and unlimited losses):

1. Nonlinear huge leverage will suffer huge losses if it is faced with going in the wrong direction.

2. Volatility drops, and the other side may lose money.

3. The state of mind is easy to be out of balance with big fluctuations.

4. Time is the enemy of option buyer.

5. Stock thinking is serious. Stock thinking is just want to do long, will not short, fall more want to bottom, trap, ignore and so on rebound, and even some people add positions to lower costs, the result is deeper and deeper to zero. If you don't change your mind, it's dangerous to make options.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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