Original title: what did the EU say in its economic forecast report?
On Thursday, the European Union released its economic forecast.
Thursday,In its economic forecast report, the European Union downgraded the euro zone's economic growth to 3.8% in 2021, compared with 4.2% previously.. After the release of the report, the euro fluctuated little against the dollar in the short term.
The EU report can be described as "mixed". The European Union estimates that the economic risk is still quite high.The euro zone's economy contracted 0.9% in the first quarter from a year earlier.
But at the same time,EU raises euro zone economic growth to 3.8% in 2022Previously, it was 3.0% and raised euro zone inflation expectations from 1.1% to 1.4% in 2021 and remained unchanged at 1.3% in 2022.
In the oil market, the EU raised the average price of Brent crude from $44.6 / barrel to $54.7 / barrel in 2021 and from $46.4 / barrel to $52.4 / barrel in 2022.
The report's views on the economic outlook are at odds with those made earlier today by Don Brovsky, vice president of the European Commission in charge of economy.
Dongbrovsky said that with the acceleration of COVID-19 vaccination and the gradual lifting of blockade restrictions by governments, the European economy could rebound in the second quarter:
"this is indeed our expectation that through appropriate adjustments to restrictions and mass vaccination, we will be able to gradually restore economic growth. In fact, we expect the economic outlook to improve in the second quarter of this year. "
It is worth noting, however, that, like the view of the EU report, most analysts remain pessimistic about the economic outlook for the eurozone.The latest data show that the euro zone economy shrank 0.7% month-on-month in the fourth quarter of 2020, and economists expect the euro zone economy to continue to contract in the first quarter of this year.
The International Monetary Fund last month predicted that the economies of the 19 countries in the euro zone would not return to pre-outbreak levels until next year.
Just a few days ago, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde saidCOVID-19 's epidemic still poses a potential threat to European economic recovery.There is still a need to maintain loose monetary policy to support the economy. Lagarde said that the progress of vaccination has made people see "the light at the end of the tunnel", but how the epidemic situation will develop next is still uncertain, while production activity is still below pre-epidemic levels.
Sylvain Broyer, chief analyst for Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), rated by S&P Global Inc., said:
“It's still a competition between vaccines and variants of the virus.There is no doubt that the speed of vaccination in European countries is relatively backward. "
At present, the vaccination progress of EU countries obviously lags behind that of the United States and the United Kingdom. Less than 4% of the population in the European Union received the first dose of the vaccine, compared with 11% in the United States and nearly 17% in the United Kingdom, according to the British website "look at the World with data". These comments and figures partly explain why the EU is so pessimistic.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that the ECB would continue to implement massive stimulus measures to revive recession-hit economies, but that governments would continue to spend. As the euro zone fell into a severe recession last year, governments spent a lot of money to maintain economic activityBut at present, some countries seem to be tied up in extending aid, while the 750 billion euro EU support package has not yet been finalized.
Lagarde said that fiscal policy is still crucial to promoting recovery, both at the national level and at the European level.. If the EU package, known as the "next-generation EU fund", had been implemented according to the timetable originally envisaged, it might have boosted economic growth this year.
Bank of America CorporationCut the EURUSD forecast to 1.15 by the end of the year. Bank of America Corporation pointed out that due to the policy differences between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank and the possibility of large-scale fiscal stimulus in the United States.The US economy is expected to recover twice as fast as the euro zone.EURUSD EUR/USD is expected to fall to 1.18 in June (previously expected to be 1.22), to 1.16 in September (previously expected to be 1.24) and to 1.15 by the end of the year (previously expected to be 1.25).