Original title: EU revised euro zone GDP forecast for the whole year, epidemic difficulties still prevent the euro from rebounding further.

The European Commission on Thursday gave another pessimistic forecast for the economic outlook for the entire euro zone, predicting that the pace of economic recovery in the euro zone in 2021 will be difficult to match the previously predicted level. especially given that the current mutated novel coronavirus is posing a new threat.

The European Commission's latest estimate is that GDP of the 19 eurozone countries will resume growth of 3.8 per cent in 2021, well below its full-year growth forecast of 4.2 per cent in November 2020. On the other hand, the timing of the EU's forecast report is very delicate, because it is at a time when countries around the world have begun to promote universal vaccination of novel coronavirus vaccination. since the beginning of the year, the EU has promoted the pace of vaccination far more slowly than that of the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, which has just officially left the European Union, which has been criticized by EU officials and has also made investors feel lack of confidence in the prospects of economic recovery in the euro zone. The EU's own economic forecasts confirm the concerns of observers.

At present, EU governments are also worried about the possibility that the virus may mutate and further enhance its infectious power. As a result, major EU economies have repeatedly extended social blockades to continue the futures tradition, which is also a fatal blow to the survival of the economy itself. Within a few days, EU Economic Commissioner and former Italian Prime Minister Gentiloni said that Europe is still facing the heavy blow of the epidemic, and the impact of the epidemic on social and economic life is already too obvious, but the dawn is ahead.

This is similar to the speech made by German Chancellor Angela Merkel earlier in the day. Merkel warned on the same day that with the increase in the number of cases of COVID-19 mutated virus infection in Germany, there is still a risk of a third wave of the epidemic, which will be a key stage related to the trend of the epidemic between now and mid-March. She pointed out that sooner or later, mutated viruses will gain the upper hand and become mainstream, and people still need to be prepared for this. Although it appears that cases have been declining steadily in recent days, there is still a need to be highly cautious about their prospects.

According to a study by the European Union, the German economy, the leader of the euro zone, will grow by 3.2% in 2021, after declining by 5% in 2020, while France is expected to recover 5.5% this year after a recession of more than 8% last year. At the same time, the EU anticipates that social restrictions will be appropriately relaxed in the second quarter, but some restrictions are likely to continue until 2022.

The news also continues to put pressure on the euro, although this week

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During the pullback, the euro rebounded, but from Wednesday to Thursday.

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Repeated obstacles at 1.2140 of the 30-day EMA confirm that action on the exchange rate is still insufficient, and its trend still lags behind that of commodities in non-US currencies. Short term

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Need to break through 1.2140 30-day moving average resistance level to confirm the short-term bottom form, otherwise the bottom market may still be continuing, re-breaking the support level of 1.2070 means that the downtrend is re-consolidated. On the other hand, the data of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States within days may provide guidance on the next move of the foreign exchange market in which the short-term exchange rate does not stop.

(the picture above is

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The trend of K-line of Japan)