Main points of investment:
The net profit in 2019 was lower than expected, maintaining the target price of 34.79 yuan. Revenue in 2019 is 441 million yuan (+ 12.66%) and net profit is 41.24 million yuan (+ 1.96%), which is lower than we expected because of the large loss of bad debts. The net profit for 2020-2021 is forecast to be 0.72 (- 0.11) million and 0.97 (- 0.15) million respectively, and the net profit for 2022 is forecast to be 127 million yuan, 2020-2022.
The annual corresponding EPS is 0.61,0.82,1.08 yuan. Refer to comparable companies, maintain the target price of 34.79 yuan, corresponding to the 2020 PE57x, maintain the "overweight" rating.
The gross profit margin has basically stabilized, and the intensity of research and development has gradually increased. In 2019, the revenue of the medical information system was 207 million yuan (+ 13.38%), the gross profit was 60.33% (+ 0.58pct); the revenue of the scene application system was 192 million yuan (+ 16.01%), and the gross profit was 28.14% (- 2.06pct). In 2019, the comprehensive gross profit margin was 45.54% (- 0.57pct), which basically stabilized. 2020Q1 was affected by the epidemic with revenue of 55.11 million yuan (- 14.39%) and net profit of 620000 yuan (- 90.35%). Both revenue and net profit declined, and growth is expected to return after the epidemic. From 2017 to 2019, the number of R & D personnel was 166,196,235 respectively, accounting for 34.73%, 35.70% and 39.76% respectively, and the R & D intensity gradually increased.
The product line has been gradually expanded, and the proportion of orders in tertiary hospitals has gradually increased. The company's new generation of hospital information system, SMART HIS and other important products have been applied, and many products are being studied, such as high-end diagnosis and treatment support system based on artificial intelligence, Internet-based intelligent medical health management platform, intelligent medical cloud operating system and so on. The new generation of hospital information system is an integrated operation platform for the core business of the hospital, which takes electronic medical records as the core and covers the traditional "HIS+EMRS+ Internet hospital". The company takes large hospitals as the main target customers, and the proportion of tertiary hospitals with new contracts from 2017 to 2019 is 52.75%, 69.64% and 86.75% respectively, gradually increasing.
Catalyst: release key R & D products and sign major orders
Core risk: the second rebound of the epidemic, the progress of a single large order is not as expected.