The epidemic situation is difficult to stop the rush to install, and the Q2 performance returns to a high growth rate.
This year, the domestic wind power industry has entered a comprehensive rush for installation. In 2021 and 2022, onshore and offshore wind power have entered the era of parity / land subsidy, respectively. Large-scale units will lead to the concentration of wind towers, and the relationship between supply and demand is conducive to the bargaining power of manufacturers. Q1 is affected by the delay in resuming work, and the company's shipments have been delayed. Q2 revenue and performance are expected to rebound strongly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 85% and 90%.
The advantages of cost control and capacity layout are highlighted, and the market share increases steadily.
The company's competitive advantage is cost control ability and capacity layout. Wind tower procurement is mainly based on bidding, qualified supplier with low price, gross profit per ton of steel can reflect the level of enterprise cost control. The company's gross profit per ton of steel has been ahead of the industry average in the past three years, and has increased rapidly since 2018, and Q1 has risen to more than 2200 yuan in 2020. The company has nine major production bases throughout the country, radiating three north, central and eastern plains and offshore wind power, and is expected to steadily climb from less than 10% to more than 15% in the future.
A new 240MW wind power project will be added in 2020, with strong certainty of performance growth.
The company will rush to install 240WM self-operated wind power project in 2020, which is located in Inner Mongolia with better wind resources, consumption capacity and high electricity price in Shandong area. New energy power generation capacity will double in 2021, conservatively estimated to contribute 50 million yuan incremental performance, and the profit growth has strong certainty.
Risk hint
Domestic wind power consumption bottleneck, the decline in installed demand; COVID-19 epidemic and other force majeure affect the progress of production and delivery; the company's product quality problems lead to rising costs or affect market sales.
Maintain the "Buy" rating and raise the profit forecast for 2021 and 22nd
After the improvement of gross profit per ton of steel, the competitiveness of the company has been enhanced, and the new production capacity in the past 20 years has been filled with orders. The proprietary power generation project doubled in 2020, so the company raised its 22-year profit forecast for 21Unix. It is estimated that the profit per share for 20-22 is 1.69xpx 2.26xpx 2.61 yuan (the previous forecast is 1.83x04xpx 0.51 yuan, which was reduced by 5% due to the impact of the epidemic in 2020). The year-on-year growth rate was 44.2%, 34.2% and 15.4%, respectively. At present, the market is pessimistic about parity wind power, and the plate valuation reflects the cliff decline in industry earnings in the past 21 years, which is at the bottom of history. We believe that onshore wind power is fully affordable, which is in line with the national energy strategy and new infrastructure incentive policy. with the demand clear plate valuation can be repaired, the reasonable valuation range of the company will be raised to 20.8-25.1 yuan after the profit forecast is raised. Compared with the current stock price, there is a premium of 39% to 68%. Maintain a "buy" rating.