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特发服务(300917):园区服务标杆 多元业态拓展

Special service (300917): multi-format expansion of park service benchmarking

海通證券 ·  Dec 20, 2020 00:00

Based on the cooperation of large factories, expand diversified forms of business. Special service is committed to becoming a high-end integrated service operator in China. In recent years, the company not only provides property management services, but also gradually expand government services, asset management and other business. After the completion of the mixed reform in 2016, it successively won bids for large factory projects such as BABA, Shenzhen DJI Science and Technology, Huawei, China Mobile Limited, Tencent, Ant Financial Services Group and so on. The service format covers park property, public property, commercial property, residential property and so on. The company's senior management team has many years of property related experience, Duowei Tefa property or group veteran employees. The management and the core alone hold 11.25% of the shares of the listed company after issuance through Yinkun Investment, and the incentive is in place, which is conducive to ensuring the stability of the team and promoting the long-term development of the company.

There is plenty of room for marketization of the industry, and the industrial park can be expected in the future. The company's main business income contribution and profit contribution come from the park business. At present, there are 168 national high-tech parks in China, which are mainly distributed in economically developed areas. The total income of enterprises in high-tech zones grew at a compound annual growth rate of 21.15% from 2010 to 2015 and 17.68% from 2020 to 2017. From the point of view of stock and increment, there is a medium-and long-term demand for expanding marketization and improving the level of comprehensive services. In addition, among the top 100 enterprises, the proportion of properties involved in the industrial park in 2019 is only 54.51%, which is much lower than that of residential property, office property and commercial property. The competition is relatively weak, and the special service has a first-mover advantage.

Analysis of business effectiveness and competitive strength. 1) the basic market is stable, and the billing area and unit price are rising steadily. From 2017 to the end of June 2020, the weighted average billing area of the company increased from 14.94 million square meters to 21.46 million square meters, and the average billing unit price increased from 2.23 yuan / square meters / month to 3.11 yuan / square meters / month. 2) the government service is developing rapidly and has become a new profit growth point. The company actively expanded its government service business. From 2017 to the end of June 2020, the number of service items increased from 37 to 102. the service content expanded from the examination and approval business of the government service hall to supporting information product services and file management, and the gross profit contributed 2020H1 to 14.2%. 3) the income of value-added services fluctuates greatly, and the business model is not perfect. Affected by the epidemic and the declining demand for small-scale rectification in Huawei, the company's revenue from value-added services fluctuated greatly in history and began to show a downward trend after 2018. 4) there are few reserve items and the certainty of growth is weak.

By the end of June 2020, the company had signed a total of 604000 square meters of undelivered parts, including only one property in the park and three residential properties. However, after the IPO, the company is expected to have plenty of cash on hand to strengthen bidding and market-oriented mergers and acquisitions. 5) although the gross profit margin is stable in the short term, it is restricted by the competition pattern and labor cost for a long time.

Labor costs account for more than 65% of the main business costs, and the wages of employees in the locations of the company's projects increase with the improvement of the social average wage level, and the cost is under rigid upward pressure. Because of the fierce market competition, the average billing unit price is under pressure, and the gross profit margin is limited.

Profit forecast and valuation. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2020 to 2022 will be 90 million yuan, 115 million yuan and 136 million yuan respectively, an increase of 38.0%, 27.7% and 17.8% over the same period last year. Give the company 30-35 times PE in 2020, corresponding to the reasonable value range of 27.00-31.50 yuan. We give the company a rating superior to that of the big city. Risk hint. The company's new project expansion is not as expected, labor costs are rising, and professionals are scarce.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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