The performance slightly exceeded market expectations, and Q4 showed a trend of accelerated growth.
The company released its 2019 results KuaiBao on the evening of February 28, with annual revenue of 1.046 billion yuan (+ 17.68%) and net profit of 286 million yuan (+ 35.37%). 2019Q4 achieved revenue of 244 million yuan (+ 31.89%) and net profit of 63 million yuan (+ 43.18%) in a single quarter. The company's performance slightly exceeded market expectations, and Q4 showed an accelerated growth trend. The main reason for the high growth of the company's performance is that the company actively participates in a series of market planning activities such as online and offline product exhibitions and customer exchanges, which has achieved results in the expansion of new customers and new markets at home and abroad; in addition, by strengthening product research and development, while meeting the demand for customized orders, it continues to bring about performance growth.
Close R & D relationship with customers, diversified smart cabinet business opens the growth ceiling
In 2019, the company increased its R & D investment and maintained close R & D cooperation with downstream customers, and new products such as fresh cabinets, fusion cabinets, medical lockers, vending machines and other new products are expected to continue to open the company's growth space; smart express box as a traditional business, the penetration rate is still at a low level, laying is far from the ceiling. In terms of production capacity, the company raised 699 million yuan in 2019, of which about 56% was used for capacity expansion projects. Around the main business, it is expected to increase the production capacity of 80,000 smart express boxes, and strive to reach an annual production scale of 200000 units (single cabinet capacity) in the future.
Holding core customers, two-wheel drive in domestic and overseas markets
The company is one of the core suppliers of Fengnest smart express boxes, and more than 50% of its revenue comes from Fengnest. Fengnest takes asset optimization as its main task in 2019, and its capital expenditure is not good compared with the same period last year; it is expected to obtain a new round of financing in 2020 or two years later, driven by policies and diversified smart cabinet capital expenditure plans, to meet the inflection point of the boom. In overseas markets, the company is currently the only supplier of Amazon smart express boxes. As Amazon continues to promote logistics capacity building, diversified smart cabinet layout is expected to drive demand and continue to promote the company's high growth in overseas equipment sales.
Risk tips: the epidemic has an impact on the company's delivery and acceptance; downstream customers may not invest at the pace as expected.
Investment advice: raise earnings forecasts and maintain "overweight" ratings.
According to the situation of KuaiBao, we raised our profit forecast for 2019-2021. The net profit of homing in 2019-2021 was raised from 274 to 419 million yuan, to 286 yuan, 4728% year-on-year growth rate, diluted EPS=2.86/4.19/5.35 yuan, and maintained the "overweight" rating.