The performance is in line with market expectations, and Q4 shows a trend of accelerated growth.
The company released its 2019 annual report on the evening of March 24, with a total operating income of 1.046 billion yuan (+ 17.68%) and a net profit of 286 million yuan (+ 35.25%). 2019Q4 achieved a revenue of 244 million yuan (+ 31.44%) and a net profit of 63 million yuan (+ 43.03%) in a single quarter. The company's performance is in line with KuaiBao, in line with market expectations, Q4 shows an accelerated growth trend. The company's expansion of new customers and new markets at home and abroad has achieved results, and the products are constantly being promoted.
The forecast of the quarterly report is in line with expectations, and the overall decline is relatively small, reflecting the high prosperity of overseas business.
The company disclosed a forecast of Q1 performance in 2020 and expected to make a profit of 53.6394 million yuan to 76.6277 million yuan, down 0% and 30% from the same period last year. The quarterly results were in line with expectations, and the company's domestic sales revenue decreased during the reporting period compared with the same period last year. The epidemic affected the laying of Fengnest and other domestic customers, and began to experience the installation window period of smart express boxes in February, which was in line with market expectations. At the same time, the value-added tax collection and refund decreased compared with the same period last year. With the domestic epidemic under effective control, customers are expected to gradually return to work. In addition, the company's overall performance decline is relatively small, reflecting the high prosperity of overseas business. The company has issued a profit distribution plan, which intends to pay a cash dividend of 4 yuan for every 10 shares and increase 6 shares for every 10 shares to all shareholders with the capital reserve.
Holding core customers, two-wheel drive in domestic and overseas markets
The company is one of the core suppliers of Fengnest smart express boxes. In 2019, Fengnest takes asset optimization as its main task, and its capital expenditure is not good compared with the same period last year; it is expected to obtain a new round of financing in 2020 or two years later. Driven by policies and diversified smart cabinet capital expenditure plans, we will welcome the inflection point of the boom. Overseas markets, the company's main customer Amazon.Com Inc e-commerce orders driven by the epidemic, currently plans to recruit large-scale warehousing and distribution personnel, reflecting the shortage of human resources in the distribution link. The company is currently the only supplier of Amazon smart express boxes. With Amazon continuing to promote logistics capacity building, diversified smart cabinet layout is expected to drive demand and promote the high growth of the company's overseas equipment sales.
Risk tips: the epidemic has an impact on the company's delivery and acceptance; downstream customers may not invest at the pace as expected.
Investment advice: maintain the "overweight" rating.
It is estimated that the net profit of homing from 2020 to 2022 will be 408x531x685 million, a year-on-year growth rate of 43,30,29,000,000 yuan, diluting EPS=4.08/5.31/6.85 yuan, and maintaining the "overweight" rating.