Downstream to the head of customized enterprises-based customer structure to bring a strong demand recovery, aldehyde-free plate to represent the rapid growth of high-end products to enhance the profitability of the company.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. The company announced its results, KuaiBao, with a revenue of 1.833 billion yuan in 2020, a decrease of 5.65%, and a net profit of 181 million yuan, an increase of 6.31%, in line with market expectations. According to the performance, KuaiBao raised the forecast of EPS from 2020 to 2022 to 0.16,0.18,0.22 (+ 0) yuan, and maintained the target price of 4.21 yuan, corresponding to the 2020-2022 PE is 19.14 times of 26.31 PE, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Product and customer structure contribute to market recovery. Q4 company's revenue is about 603 million yuan, with an increase of about 17%. With the rapid replenishment of downstream demand, the Q3 inventory elimination rate contributes to the growth momentum. The comparison of particleboard and fibreboard in the company's product structure is balanced, and the downstream customers are mainly head customized furniture enterprises. therefore, in the environment of the recovery of head custom furniture enterprises leading the home industry, the company's sales end recovers faster, and a strong recovery pace is expected to continue in 2021H1.
Formaldehyde-free board mainly contributes to the growth of profitability of high-end products. Q4 company's home net profit of about 74 million yuan increased by nearly 100%, and its gross profit margin rose to 2.5pct for the whole year, or mainly benefited from the rapid release of high-end products dominated by aldehyde-free plates, with an annual growth rate of 85%. Changes in product structure will still be the main driving force for the company's growth before the contribution of new production capacity in 2021.
New capacity reserves are on the way, and internationalization is gradually advancing. The company's 500,000 new production capacity base in Qinzhou, based on one-year experience, is expected to advance rapidly in 2021, and begin to form an effective contribution in 2022 to carry out a relay in the growth space; the company's layout of New Zealand in 2021 may continue to effectively promote, or explore various ways such as timber trade to transform New Zealand's resource advantage into the company's competitive advantage as soon as possible.
Risk Tip: raw material prices fluctuate and new projects fall short of expectations.