Forecast that the net profit of homing in 2020 will increase by 30% to 55% compared with the same period last year.
On January 29, 2021, the company issued a pre-increase announcement. It is estimated that the net profit of homing in 2020 will increase by 33.3199 million yuan to 61.0865 million yuan to 144 million yuan to 172 million yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 30% to 55% over the same period last year. The results forecast slightly exceeded expectations, mainly due to the release of results concentrated in the fourth quarter.
Pay attention to the main points
Full-year results slightly exceeded expectations, 4Q20 single-quarter performance growth is faster. 1) the company realized operating income of 1.058 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2020, down 30.19% from the same period last year, and realized net profit of-75 million yuan, compared with-72 million yuan in the same period last year. 2) according to historical data, the company's performance is mainly focused on the fourth quarter release. 4Q20 achieved relatively rapid growth in single-quarter results, with a net profit of 219 million yuan to 247 million yuan, an increase of 19.7% to 34.9% over the same period last year.
Continue to focus on the main radar industry, achieved a number of research and development results, gross profit margin increased year by year. 1) the company's comprehensive gross profit margin (excluding taxes and surcharges) in the first three quarters of 2018, 2019 and 2020 was 14.95%, 18.38% and 21.20%, respectively, increasing year by year. 2) in 2020, the company's microwave industry has made progress in the fields of passive components, active components, microwave systems, simulators, satellite communications and so on. 3) by optimizing the market layout, increasing the sales share of independent products, adjusting the business structure, and reducing some of the low-profit integrated business, the company's product profit has been improved. We judge that the company's performance will benefit from the optimization of the company's business structure and the transformation of R & D achievements for a long time to achieve stable growth.
CLP Bo Wei is the only listing platform, which has great platform value. Controlling shareholder Zhongdian Bo Microelectronics Technology Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of China Electric Power Group, with 38 high-quality assets. The company is one of the important manufacturers of radar industry, among which meteorological radar, air traffic control radar and other products are leading in China. Relying on 38 high-quality assets and superior R & D capabilities, the company is able to continue to expand the field of radar manufacturing business. At the same time, as the only listing platform of China Electric Power Bo Weiwei, we think it has great platform value.
Valuation and suggestion
We keep the company's profit forecast for 2020 and 2021 unchanged, with revenue of 4.221 billion yuan and 4.805 billion yuan respectively, and net profit of 140 million yuan and 189 million yuan respectively, and introduce the net profit forecast of 227 million yuan in 2022. The current share price of the company corresponds to 2021 38.0x/31.6x in 2022.
We maintain the company's "outperform industry" rating and keep the target price unchanged at 54 yuan, with a potential increase of 19.5%, corresponding to 2021 45.4x/37.8x 2022.
Risk.
Market systemic risk; radar orders are lower than expected.