Specific events. On the evening of January 29, I love my family to issue an annual performance forecast for 2020.
It is estimated that the net profit of homing in 2020 will drop by 51.66% and 62.54%, with a loss of 163 million yuan in the first quarter. The company's net profit is expected to be 3.1-400 million yuan in 2020, compared with 827 million yuan in the same period last year, down 51.66% and 62.54%. Net profit after deducting non-parent net profit is expected to be 3.0-390 million yuan, compared with 735 million yuan in the same period last year, down 59.19%. Basic earnings per share are expected to be 0.1336-0.1724 yuan per share, compared with 0.3566 yuan per share in the same period last year. From a quarterly point of view, according to the median of the performance forecast, the homed net profit from the first to the fourth quarter of 20 years was-1.63 Universe 2.04 Universe 111 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of-179.5% Universe 21.8% Accord 40.4%. The net profit of homing in the first quarter decreased by 369 million yuan compared with the same period last year, accounting for 44.57% of the net profit in 2019. In addition, based on the principle of prudence, the company, in accordance with the "Accounting Standards for Enterprises" and related regulations, is expected to provide about 90 million yuan for the impairment of various assets that may have impairment losses in 2020.
The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, and the brokerage business and asset management business (long-term rental apartments + commerce) suffered a greater impact.
The reasons for the decline in company performance are as follows: 1. Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in January 2020, domestic cities have taken strict prevention and control measures, resulting in the company's overall business basically stagnant in the first quarter. two。 During the epidemic, urban mobility fell sharply, rental prices in major cities continued to fall, and measures such as rent relief for tenants led to a decline in the performance of the long-term rental apartment business. 3. Yunnan Kunbai commercial sector, shopping malls take the initiative to respond to the government's call for phased closure, greatly waive and reduce the rent of merchants, and reduce the operating pressure of merchants; the company's self-owned New Southwest Shopping Center has been closed since May 2020. Resulting in a loss of rental income in the commercial sector. 4. The company firmly implements the digital strategy, and IT expenses have increased by more than 50% throughout the year. For the above reasons, although the real estate market recovered well after the epidemic, and the company's main brokerage business grew faster, the asset management business such as long-term rental apartments and commerce was affected by the epidemic more than expected, and the annual performance was still lower than expected.
Firmly implement the digital home-loving strategy, increase digital investment, and expand rapidly. The company firmly implements the digital home-loving strategy and speeds up the digital transformation. Greatly increase the number of IT teams, invest in digital construction, upgrade online services, expand transaction scenes and boundaries, cultivate new performance growth points, and continuously promote the reform of organization and talent management. In January 2021, on the basis of independent development and operation of AMS business management system, we have completed the product technology upgrade of platform asset management operation, and rapidly realized 10,000 sets of management scale in Shenzhen market. The company has completed the infrastructure work of platform development and opened its business, and more than 1000 stores have joined by the end of 2020. The pilot "I + Series SaaS system" has been opened to the public and has more than 50,000 external broker users.
Investment advice: the company has started the path of scale expansion, GMV and revenue will be the first to usher in high growth. We predict that the company's revenue for 2020-22 will be 122.5 million yuan, with a growth rate of-16.5%, 30.8% and 48.3%, respectively. The net profit of home ownership is RMB 3.47, 5.63 and RMB 925 million, respectively, with a growth rate of-58.1%, 62.3%, 64.3%, and EPS of 0.15, 0.24 and 0.39, respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
The target price is 7.16 yuan, corresponding to the dynamic PE29.8X in 2021.
Risk hint: competition intensifies more than expected. Real estate policy risk. The income of the new house fell short of expectations. The expansion rate of joining is lower than expected.