Event: the company announced its performance forecast for 2020, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 300-3.4 billion yuan, an increase of 512-593% over the same period last year, deducting non-net profit of 30-3.4 billion yuan, an increase of 534-619% over the same period last year.
The performance slightly exceeded expectations, and the Q4 performance increased further compared with the previous month. According to the median of the performance forecast, it is expected to achieve 3.2 billion yuan in return and deduction of non-net profit in 2020, and has initially considered the impact of goodwill impairment caused by Parkson International's failure to fulfill its performance commitment under the epidemic, of which 2020Q4 is expected to achieve a net profit of 11-1.5 billion yuan in a single quarter, which is further accelerated compared with the first three quarters. If the impact of goodwill impairment is excluded, the actual operating performance is slightly higher than expected, mainly since May 2020. The supply price of the company's gloves is close to the market price, bringing a continued improvement in profit margins and the release of new nitrile production capacity from 2020Q4, which further accelerates growth in the fourth quarter.
The overseas epidemic continues, the glove industry continues to be booming, and the company increases the pace of production expansion, which is expected to share the industry dividend.
Under the global COVID-19 epidemic, the serious imbalance between supply and demand of gloves has led to a continuous rise in glove prices. considering that gloves require high technology and capital scale, and it is difficult to release production capacity quickly, we expect glove prices to remain high in the medium term. bring a sustained boom in the industry. By the end of 2020, the annual production capacity of PVC gloves in the company's main glove categories is more than 20 billion, and the annual production capacity of nitrile gloves is more than 6 billion. Another 50 billion nitrile gloves are expected to be put into production in the next 2-3 years. The company's total production capacity of medical and protective gloves is expected to reach nearly 80 billion / a, making it the company with the most complete industrial chain, the most reasonable industrial layout and the most complete industrial chain.
Cardiovascular business is under short-term pressure, and drug balloons, heart valves and other important new products have been put on the market one after another in the medium and long term.
In 2020, the company's cardiovascular business continued to be negatively affected by the epidemic at home and abroad. According to the company announcement, it is estimated that the non-net profit of Parkson International in 2020 is about 2.1-320 million yuan, which is lower than that in previous years. At the same time, the company won the bid at the lowest price in the national stent collection result. We expect that it may have a negative impact on the company's domestic stent business. However, considering that the heavyweight varieties BioFreedom and rapamycin family drug balloons are expected to be approved one after another in the next 1-2 years, the superimposed European advanced TAVR products will continue to increase, which is expected to hedge the possible negative impact of domestic stent business, and the company has long-term sustained growth.
Profit forecast and valuation: according to the forecast, we fine-tune the profit forecast that the company's revenue from 2020 to 2022 is expected to be 82.93, 140.88 and 14.712 billion yuan, an increase of 138.60%, 69.88% and 4.43% over the same period last year, and net profit of 32.31,53.74 and 4.019 billion yuan, an increase of 558.99%, 66.34% and-25.22% (540.74%, 65.11% and-29.81% before adjustment) The corresponding EPS is 3.22,5.35,4.00. In view of the fact that the volume and price of the company's glove business has risen in both volume and price under the epidemic, resulting in sustained high growth, cardiovascular innovative equipment products are about to enter the harvest stage and maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: product market promotion does not meet the expected risk, policy change risk, product research and development failure risk, the impact of glove price fluctuations.