The forecast performance in 2019 is in line with expectations, and the net profit per ton has increased significantly.
The company forecasts full-year revenue of more than 2.45 billion yuan (+ 76%) and net profit of 2.56-287 million yuan (150% copyright 180%). It is estimated that the fourth quarter revenue of 970 million yuan (+ 57%), net profit of 125 million yuan (+ 198%), the apparent performance is in line with expectations. It is estimated that the annual sales of wind towers are between 26 and 290000 tons, and the net profit per ton of steel has increased from about 700 yuan in the first half of the year to more than 850 yuan. The sales scale and profit margin are in line with expectations.
The growth rate of 20Q1 performance is expected to exceed 130%, and annual shipments are expected to reach 360000 tons.
It is estimated that the company's wind tower shipments in the first quarter of 2020 will reach 50,000 tons, and the return net profit will reach more than 66 million, an increase of 130% over the same period last year. In 2020, about 25GW onshore subsidized wind power projects will be rushed to install, while the parity project superimposed on the three north 5GW will start construction, and the offshore 3GW wind power project will start construction. The new wind power hoisting capacity in the country is expected to be about 33GW, and the total demand for wind towers is about 3.3 million tons. According to the calculation of the new grid-connected 26GW of wind power in 2019, the company's national market share is about 10-11% in 2019, so it is estimated that the company's wind tower shipments will increase by more than 24% to 360000 tons in 2020 compared with the same period last year, and the revenue scale will continue to maintain rapid growth.
Smoothly enter the Vestas supply chain and lay the foundation for market internationalization
The company has successfully entered the Chinese supply chain of the international fan giant Vestas, and it is expected that the supply volume will increase with the development of Vestas's business in China in 2020. The gradual deepening of cooperation between the two sides will improve the company's management level, process technology and quality control system.
Risk hint: if China abandons the wind and power cuts worsen again, it will cause the new installed capacity in the industry to fall short of expectations, and the company's new energy operating performance will not meet expectations; if steel prices rise quickly, profitability will improve less than expected. If the scenery resources fluctuate seasonally, the performance of the company's new energy operation plate will fall short of expectations.
Investment advice: maintain earnings forecasts and valuations, maintain "buy" ratings
China's leading wind tower enterprises look forward to the layout of the three north and offshore wind power markets, the recent capacity utilization rate has increased rapidly, and the performance has blossomed. Maintain the company's profit forecast, maintain a reasonable valuation range of 17.36-23.03 yuan per share, a premium of 11-47% over the current share price, and maintain a "buy" rating with a PE of 9.5-12.6 times in 2019.