We believe that Shengshi, as the leader of the port information industry in China, the certainty of its growth and the prosperity of the track are underestimated by the market. This report makes an in-depth analysis of the company's historical orders in the past 5 years and the construction plans of major downstream customers in the next 5 years, and answers the following questions of market concern:
What will be the growth in the next 3-5 years? It is estimated that the potential increment space of aviation port business in the next 5 years is more than 6.3 billion yuan. According to statistics, 49 international airports will be built, renovated and expanded in the next 5 years (with a total investment of 932.1 billion yuan). Based on the competition pattern of the industry, it is judged that most of the port information orders will flow to Shengshi. Through two kinds of logic, it is estimated that the potential increment space of aviation port business in the next 5 years is 36-9.1 billion yuan, with a median of 6.3 billion yuan. Taking into account the continuous increase in the proportion of port customer information expenditure, the above estimates are still conservative.
How to track performance? The measurement of Q4-Q3 Roll's public orders for the fourth quarter can be used as a forward-looking tracking indicator of revenue for the year. The company's business mainly comes from public bidding and the general project is completed within 6 months. It is estimated that the 17-19 Q4-Q3 public order accounts for 70-84% of the revenue of the year, so the Q4-Q3 rolling order can be used as a reasonable basis for predicting the performance of the current year.
How is business continuity? Strong stickiness + high repurchase supports the sustainable development of the business. It is estimated that the customer repurchase rate in the past 5-3 years is 41%, 39%, 33%, respectively, and the actual situation may be even higher. The repurchase rate is only the result, the port customer has the extremely high viscosity, the continuous repurchase is one of the key driving forces of the company's growth. The trend of the prosperity of the track? the structural change of the order proves that the prosperity of the industry continues to rise. The calculation of the average order amount, the proportion of large orders and the head project amount of the company in the past 5 years have all increased significantly, which can be regarded as evidence of the continuous improvement of the industry boom in the absence of authoritative industry data. Profit forecast and investment suggestions: raise the 21-22 return net profit to 3.63 / 511 million yuan, the current stock price corresponding to 20-22 PE is 39-27-19 times. Smart port leader, deep competition barriers, enjoy high dividends in the industry, maintain the "highly recommended-A" rating.
Risk hints: the risk of statistical distortion of public orders; the risk that the pace of airport construction is not as fast as expected; the risk of the impact of the epidemic.