Zeshang Securities-- Pharmaron Beijing Co., Ltd.*: slightly exceeding expectations, optimistic about new production capacity and accelerating pace of platform [company research]

浙商證券 · Jan 26, 2021 10:43

【研究报告内容摘要】

公司2020年归母净利润略超预期，盈利能力持续提升。从人效角度看，公司相比于药明康德仍有提升空间，长期看，CMC、临床服务和安评等业务仍有较大的成长空间，看好公司能力边界持续突破带来的盈利能力持续提升。

投资要点成长性：归母净利润同比增速略超预期2020年业绩预告：2020年实现收入、归母净利润、扣非后归母净利润分别为50.35-52.24亿（YOY34%-39%）、11.33-11.87亿（YOY107%-117%）和7.78-8.28亿（YOY54%-64%），其中2020Q4分别实现收入、归母净利润、扣非后归母净利润分别为14.49-16.38亿（YOY28%-45%）、3.44-3.98亿（YOY57%-82%）和1.72-2.22亿（YOY-3%-+25%）。2020年非经常性损益金额为3.5-3.9亿，汇兑损失预计1.05-1.15亿元。

公司2020年Non-IFRS归母净利润10.32-10.87亿（YOY88%-98%），相比于公司收入同比增速（34%-39%）和扣非后归母净利润同比增速（54%-64%），主业净利润更快的增长意味着公司主业在2020年整体增长非常强劲。从业务拆分来看，公司Q4依然保持高增长（收入端YOY28%-45%），公司主业强劲增长可能主要来自于疫情带来实验室化学订单转移，生物科学业务高景气以及CMC业务高增长。

盈利能力：持续提升，2020年年扣非净利率再创新高按照扣非后归母净利润中值计算公司2020年扣非净利率达到15.7%，创历史新高（2018年和2019年分别为11.2%和13.4%），Non-IFRS净利率也达到了20.5%左右的高水平，显示出公司盈利能力持续提升。但是值得注意的是2020Q4扣非净利率为11.86%环比2020Q3下降5.66pct，我们预计主要是汇兑损失引起的。我们持续看好公司运营效率逐渐提升及规模化效应持续体现带来的盈利能力提升。

2021年：我们持续看好公司能力边界持续突破及盈利能力提升我们仍然看好2021年主业保持高增长及能力边界持续突破。我们认为实验室化学稳定增长是公司业绩增长基础，公司CMC业务处于业务向临床后期和商业化项目拓展的突破阶段，伴随CMC业务快速发展以及部分III期和商业化订单贡献弹性，2021年收入和利润端仍有望保持快速增长。从人效角度看，公司相比于药明康德仍有提升空间，长期看，CMC、临床服务和安评等业务仍有较大的成长空间，看好公司能力边界持续突破带来的盈利能力持续提升。

盈利预测及估值我们预计2020-2022年公司EPS为1.45、1.63、2.01元/股，2021年1月25日收盘价对应2020年PE为177倍（2021年PE104倍），鉴于公司2020年净利润略超预期，我们对2020年和2021年盈利预测略微上调，维持“买入”评级。

风险提示;业务布局加速带来的管理风险，订单短期波动，临床业务布局带来的管理挑战。

[summary of the research report]

The company's net profit in 2020 slightly exceeded expectations, and its profitability continued to improve. From the perspective of human efficiency, the company is better thanWuxi ApptecThere is still room for improvement. In the long run, businesses such as CMC, clinical services and safety assessment still have a large room for growth. We are optimistic about the continued improvement in profitability brought about by the continuous breakthrough of the company's capability boundaries.

Growth of investment points: year-on-year growth rate of return net profit is slightly higher than expected. 2020 performance forecast: realized income, return net profit and deduction of non-return net profit in 2020 are 50.35-5.224 billion (YOY34%-39%), 11.33-1.187 billion (YOY107%-117%) and 7.78-828 million (YOY54%-64%) respectively. Among them, the realized income, return net profit and non-return net profit of 2020Q4 are 14.49-1.638 billion (YOY28%-45%), 3.44-398 million (YOY57%-82%) and 1.72-222 million (YOY-3%-+25%) respectively. The amount of non-recurrent profit and loss in 2020 is 3.5-390 million, and the exchange loss is estimated to be 1.05-115 million yuan.

The company's Non-IFRS return net profit in 2020 is 10.32-1.087 billion (YOY88%-98%). Compared with the year-on-year growth rate of company revenue (34%) and deduction of non-return net profit (54%), the faster growth of main business net profit means that the overall growth of the company's main business in 2020 is very strong. From the perspective of business split, the company Q4 still maintains high growth (revenue-side YOY28%-45%), and the strong growth of the company's main business may mainly come from the transfer of laboratory chemical orders caused by the epidemic, the high boom in bioscience business and the high growth of CMC business.

Profitability: continue to improve, the annual deduction non-net interest rate hit a new high in 2020, the company deducted non-net interest rate reached 15.7% according to the median net profit in 2020, reaching an all-time high (11.2% in 2018 and 13.4% in 2019), and the Non-IFRS net interest rate also reached a high level of about 20.5%, indicating that the company's profitability continues to improve. However, it is worth noting that 2020Q4 deducts the non-net interest rate of 11.86%, which is lower 5.66pct than 2020Q3, and we expect it to be mainly caused by exchange losses. We continue to be optimistic about the gradual improvement of the company's operational efficiency and the profitability improvement brought about by the scale effect.

2021: we continue to be optimistic about the continuous breakthrough of the company's capacity boundaries and the improvement of profitability. We are still optimistic that the main business will maintain high growth and capacity boundaries will continue to break through in 2021. We believe that the steady growth of laboratory chemistry is the basis of the company's performance growth, and the company's CMC business is in a breakthrough stage of business expansion to post-clinical and commercial projects. with the rapid development of CMC business and the flexibility of the contribution of some III and commercial orders, revenue and profit are still expected to maintain rapid growth in 2021. From the perspective of human efficiency, compared with Yao Ming Kant, the company still has room for improvement. In the long run, businesses such as CMC, clinical services and safety assessment still have more room for growth. We are optimistic about the continued improvement of profitability brought about by the continuous breakthrough of the company's capability boundaries.

Earnings Forecast and valuation We expect the company's EPS to be 1.45,1.63,2.01 yuan per share from 2020 to 2022, and the closing price on January 25, 2021 corresponds to 177times PE in 2020 (PE104 times in 2021). In view of the company's 2020 net profit slightly higher than expected, we slightly raise our profit forecast for 2020 and 2021 to maintain the "buy" rating.

Risk tips; management risks brought about by accelerated business layout, short-term fluctuations in orders, and management challenges brought about by clinical business layout.

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浙商证券--康龙化成：略超预期，看好新产能、平台化加速节奏【公司研究】

Zeshang Securities-- Pharmaron Beijing Co., Ltd.*: slightly exceeding expectations, optimistic about new production capacity and accelerating pace of platform [company research]

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