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富途早报 | 股市泡沫论重燃!华尔街:最多回调15%;特斯拉股价一度破900美元

Futu Morning Post | Stock Market Bubble Theory Rekindled! Wall Street: Up to 15% correction; Tesla's stock price once broke $900

富途資訊 ·  Jan 26, 2021 08:47  · Exclusive

01.pngNiuniu knocked on the blackboard:

1. Wall Street bulls: the bursting of the dotcom bubble may repeat itself.

2. PIMCO: strong market valuations reflect expectations of economic recovery in the second half of the year

3. Contract manufacturers such as Chuantai SMC are considering raising the price of automotive chips by up to 15% again.

4. The possibility of Apple Inc's car increased, and Evercore raised the target price of Apple Inc to 160USD.

Great Wall Motor: revenue in 2020 exceeded 100 billion, and net profit increased by 19.90% compared with the same period last year.

6. BYD: plans to carry out foreign exchange derivatives trading business of no more than 4 billion US dollars

Kuaishou Technology: 365 million shares sold worldwide, at HK $115,000,000 per share

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Hot news

  • Wall Street bulls: the bursting of the dotcom bubble may reappear

Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at Wall Street bulls and BTIG, believes that the stock market is similar to the peak before the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000, and the worst-case scenario is a 10-15 per cent pullback. He speculated that the catalyst most likely to trigger a pullback would be related to novel coronavirus vaccine and distribution.

  • Goldman Sachs Group: individual stocks are in a bubble, but S & P is not much affected.

Goldman Sachs Group said that some US stock markets are now in a bubble, but when the bubble bursts, they are unlikely to drag down the entire market. Optimism about SPAC and investor interest in lossmaking companies are "worrying". However, these speculative sentiments do not pose a risk to the overall performance of the S & P 500.

  • Biden tried to push for a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, but was opposed by Republicans

U.S. president Joe Biden tried to push for a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, but it was opposed by many Republicans in Congress. Financial aid includes direct checks for millions of Americans, aid to state and local governments, funding for Covid vaccines and testing, higher minimum wages and higher unemployment benefits. Market analyst Jeff Cox wrote that in the context of the U.S. economic recovery, President Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package may be too large, most of the spending is aimed at those who do not need it, and too much stimulus can lead to inflation and other problems.

  • Biden signs executive order to strengthen "Buy American goods"

U.S. president Joe Biden has signed an executive order covering $600 billion in contract expenses, which imposes stricter rules on government procurement to increase purchases of U.S.-made goods. the aim is to make it harder for federal agencies to buy imported products. Biden said he would replace the federal fleet with electric vehicles.

  • PIMCO: strong market valuations reflect expectations of economic recovery in the second half of the year

John Studzinski, managing director and vice chairman of PIMCO, the world's largest bond brokerage, said the market valuation was strong, but we were "relieved" because it reflected expectations of a US economic recovery in the second half of the year. He believes that the current market reflects the belief that there will be a reasonable number of fiscal and money purchase programs to support, but this will be an unbalanced recovery and will be full of uncertainty.

  • Yellen's nomination for Treasury Secretary is approved by the Senate

Yellen's nomination for Treasury secretary was approved by enough votes in the Senate on Tuesday, Beijing time. According to market news, Yellen will be sworn in as U.S. Treasury Secretary tonight.

  • Us Senate: will try to pass the stimulus package within a month and a half

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Schumer said he will try to pass the economic stimulus package within a month and a half, and that the United States needs a larger and bolder stimulus package, hoping that Republicans will join the Democratic plan. The Senate will vote on more Biden nominees this week.

  • Fauci: worried about delaying the injection of the second dose of COVID-19 vaccine

Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that he was worried about the postponement of the injection of the second dose of COVID-19 vaccine, and that it was best to follow the schedule recommended in clinical trials, because the human body could not be fully protected until the second dose of the vaccine was vaccinated.

Review of US stocks

  • U.S. stocks rose and fell on Friday, the Dow closed down slightly, and the S & P of the Nasdaq hit a record high.

Us stocks closed mixed on Monday, with the Nasdaq closing slightly lower and the Nasdaq and S & P continuing to hit record highs, as the market expected this week's handsome earnings of large technology stocks such as Apple Inc and Tesla, Inc. and was optimistic about a new round of stimulus package. By the close, the Dow was down 0.12%; the Nasdaq was up 0.69%; and the S & P 500 was up 0.36%.

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  • Popular Chinese stocks fluctuated, with JD.com and Bilibili Inc. reaching new highs.

At the close of trading on Monday, hot US stocks were mixed, with JD.com up 3.7% and Bilibili Inc. up 0.39%, all reaching new highs. Pinduoduo rose nearly 5%, BABA rose 1.1%, Baidu, Inc. rose 0.84%, Li Auto Inc. fell 7.1%, XPeng Inc. fell 3.2%, and NIO Inc Motor fell 3.1%.

  • Tesla, Inc. will work with Samsung to develop a new 5nm chip for FSD

According to industry insiders$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $Will work with Samsung to develop a new 5nm chip. At present, Tesla, Inc. 's team is working on developing a more complex artificial intelligence framework to improve autopilot (FSD) capabilities. South Korean media reported that Samsung is currently developing a 5-nanometer chip to power Tesla, Inc. 's self-driving car. 5 nanometer chip is a kind of high-tech product, which can be produced by only a few companies in the world.

  • Contract manufacturers such as Chuantai SMC are considering another increase in the price of automotive chips by up to 15%.

Affected by the global shortage of goods$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM.US) $Chip foundry, etc., are weighing the price of further raising the price of on-board chips. Advanced Integrated Circuits (VIS), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's automotive chip subsidiary, is understood to be considering price increases of up to 15 per cent, while contract manufacturers, including United Microelectronics (UMC), are weighing similar price increases. If the price increase negotiations are finally settled, it will be the second round of price increases since last autumn, enough to show that the tight supply and demand relationship in the market has led manufacturers to take the initiative. It is reported that the potential price increase will gradually fall as early as late February and continue until March.

  • The share price of Tesla, Inc. has exceeded 900USD. Wedbush: target price for a bull market of $1250

At one point, Tesla, Inc. 's share price rose more than 6 per cent to more than $900in US stock trading yesterday. Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives released a research report that maintained$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $The "neutral" rating has a target price of $950, while the analyst also gave Tesla, Inc. a bull price target of $1250. Based on strong delivery data, the analyst pointed out that Tesla, Inc. 's fourth-quarter results were likely to be a "big eruption" compared with Wall Street expectations.

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  • Waymo CEO attacked Tesla, Inc. for not being on autopilot. Musk hit back: better than yours.

$Alphabet Inc-CL C (GOOG.US) $John Krafsik, CEO of its Waymo, mentioned in an interview that Tesla, Inc. is not a competitor to Waymo and believes that Tesla, Inc. 's current strategy is unlikely to develop a fully autopilot system. "Tesla, Inc. is not a competitor to us at all," Kravsik said. "We develop fully autonomous driving systems, and Tesla, Inc. is a car manufacturer that is developing a very excellent driver assistance system. "Tesla, Inc. 's artificial intelligence hardware and software are better than Alphabet Inc-CL C's self-driving company Waymo," Musk later said on Twitter. "

  • How empty it is! After a sharp rise of 140% in intraday trading, the game post gave up all the gains, and the short sellers lost nearly $1.6 billion a day.

Monday,$Game Station (GME.US) $At one point, it soared 140% in intraday trading, reaching as high as $159.18, up more than 60 times from its low of $2.57 in April last year and sixfold so far this year. Since then, the stock vomited all its gains in the day and fell at one point. At the close of trading on Friday, game post bears have lost $3.3 billion at mark-to-market since the start of the year, according to financial analyst firm S3 Partners. On Friday alone, short losses totaled nearly $1.6 billion after share prices soared 51 per cent.

  • The possibility of Apple Inc's car increased, and Evercore raised Apple Inc's target price to $160.

Evercore joined Wedbush and Raymond James in$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $The team with an eye-catching price tag on the premise of performance raised Apple Inc's target price by $15 to $160 and maintained its overweight rating. Analyst Amit Darianani said, "in view of the recent comments in the media and OEM comments such as Hyundai Motor, the discussion around the potential Apple Car has become more intense. This may indicate that Apple Inc is more likely to launch products in the next five years. "

  • Technology giants step up government lobbying activities in the face of antitrust regulation

In recent years, there have been increasing calls for regulation of large technology companies, according to supporters of government action.$Facebook Inc (FB.US) $And other technology companies have become too powerful. As a result, tech giants have sharply increased their lobbying spending over the past decade. According to official data, in the past 12 months,$Alphabet Inc-CL C (GOOG.US) $$Amazon.Com Inc (AMZN.US) $, Facebook Inc and$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $Us government lobbying spending totaled $51.7 million, up 29 per cent from 2015 and nearly 500 per cent from 2010.

  • Merck ends COVID-19 Vaccine Research and Development Program

$Merck & Co Inc (MRK.US) $The development of two experimental COVID-19 vaccines will be suspended because early trial data show that they cannot produce an immune response comparable to natural infection or existing vaccines. Nick Kartsonis, senior vice president of clinical research on infectious diseases and vaccines at Merck Research Lab, said the results were "disappointing and somewhat unexpected." Compared with people naturally infected with coronavirus, these two vaccines produce fewer neutralizing antibodies and elicit a weaker immune response in humans.

  • Alphabet Inc-CL C employees form a global federation of trade unions

$Alphabet Inc-CL C (GOOG.US) $More than 200 employees from other divisions of its parent company Alphabet formed trade unions in the United States and Canada last week, while Alphabet Inc-CL C's global employees are now forming a union federation called Alpha Global. Christy Hoffman, secretary-general of the Global Trade Union Confederation, said: "the problem of Alphabet is not limited to any country and must be solved on a global scale. Alphabet has not commented on this.

  • Uber laid off 185Postmates employees and a large number of senior executives left

According to media reports$UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC (UBER.US) $It has been announced that it will fire 185 Postmates employees in the near future, and most senior executives, including Postmates founder and CEO Bastian Lehmann, will leave.

The Prospect of Hong Kong City

  • A net inflow of HK $20.018 billion southward on Monday

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  • Great Wall Motor: revenue in 2020 exceeded 100 billion, and net profit increased by 19.90% compared with the same period last year.

$Great Wall Motor (02333.HK) $KuaiBao announced the 2020 results, showing that the net profit attributed to the parent company for the whole year was 5.392 billion yuan, an increase of 19.90 percent over the same period last year, and the total revenue for the whole year was 103.3 billion yuan, an increase of 7.35 percent over the same period last year.

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Source: company announcement

  • The source confirmed that Geely has negotiated technical and capacity OEM cooperation with FF.

For Faraday Future (FF) plans to open a factory in China, with$Geely Automobile (00175.HK) $Geely declined to comment on the news of negotiations on issues such as the production of some electric cars. However, a source revealed that Geely is indeed negotiating with FF, involving engineering technology and capacity OEM cooperation.

  • XIAOMI responded to the storm of store adjustment: the franchise model is coming to an end and the exit process will be launched.

Recently, there are$XIAOMI Group-W (01810.HK) $Dealers revealed that XIAOMI Group unilaterally terminated the supply contract, some dealers have not yet recovered the cost, the loss is larger, so the protection of rights. "at present, the contract is about to expire and the franchise model is about to come to an end. XIAOMI Group said in the above-mentioned open letter that for partners who are unwilling to upgrade, they will organize relevant departments to communicate and consult with partners and launch an orderly and stable exit process; for partners who are willing to upgrade but have difficulties, will do their best to empower, provide training and exchanges in business capabilities, provide support and assistance in materials, and so on.

  • BYD: plans to carry out foreign exchange derivatives trading business of no more than 4 billion US dollars

$Byd Company Limited (01211.HK) $According to the announcement, the fifth meeting of the Seventh Board of Directors was held on January 25, 2021 to examine and approve the "Bill on the Company's Foreign Exchange Derivatives Trading Business". The company intends to carry out foreign exchange derivatives trading business in order to strengthen foreign exchange risk management and meet the needs of the company's sound operation. Agree that the company shall conduct foreign exchange derivatives trading business with a cumulative amount of not more than US $4 billion or the equivalent of other currencies, and authorize the management of the company to exercise the decision-making power related to the business and sign relevant agreements.

  • German digital bank N26 invested by Tencent or IPO next year

According to market news,$Tencent (00700.HK) $Investment German digital bank N26 announced the appointment of Jane Camper as the company's new chief financial officer. N26 said in 2018 that it was possible for the company to IPO in the next three to five years. The N26 is expected to go public in 2022, according to people familiar with the matter.

  • Xintong Medical treatment-B starts its IPO today.

$minimally invasive medical treatment (00853.HK) $Xintong Medical-B, its subsidiary, will issue shares from January 26 to 29, 2021. The company plans to sell about 205.6 million shares globally, with 10 per cent of Hong Kong shares and 90 per cent of international shares, with another 15 per cent over-allotment. 1000 shares per share, expected to commence trading on the Stock Exchange at 09:00 on February 4, 2021.

  • Kuaishou Technology: 365 million shares sold worldwide, at HK $115,000,000 per share

$Kuaishou Technology-W (01024.HK) $Kuaishou Technology will sell 365218600 shares worldwide, each up to HK $115.00, the HKEx said in an announcement. The Hong Kong public offering will be held at 9: 00 a.m. on January 26, 2021 (today). Kuaishou Technology sold 9.1305 million shares, accounting for only 2.5 per cent, in Hong Kong, with about 356 million international shares and an over-allotment of 15 per cent. The offering is expected to be priced from January 26th to January 29th, 2021.

Focus today

Key words: AMD/ Microsoft Corp / Starbucks Corp Financial report, Xingsheng Commercial listing

Niuniu morning reading:

You can't make money if you always do what is obvious or what everyone is doing. For rational investment, mental attitude is more important than skill. -- Graham

Edit / isaac

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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