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Under the epidemic, the State Post Bureau announced at a news conference on February 6 that it would actively promote the smart express box model, and Fengnest has also added a new fast food cabinet function in some areas. The epidemic promotes the landing of policies and the development of e-commerce, and non-contact distribution meets the boom. We sort out the investment logic of Zhilai Technology, the core supplier of intelligent express box.
Guoxin computer viewpoint:
1) under the epidemic situation, the policy is expected to continue to promote the development of the intelligent express box industry, and contactless distribution is a major development trend. The State Post Bureau said this time that it is expected to carry out a new round of policy promotion after the publication of the industry regulation document in 2019. Participants such as Fengnest, Express easy and Cainiao are expected to increase investment, and there is expected to be some strong integration to jointly open up the market. The capital expenditure of mainstream smart express box operators in 2019 is lower than market expectations due to asset optimization, capital operation and other reasons. 2020 is expected to become a big year of capital expenditure. In recent years, express volume continues to break out, intelligent express box to solve the most labor-intensive distribution problem of the last kilometer, reduce costs and increase efficiency, is the long-term trend of the industry itself.
2) Zhilai Technology is one of the core suppliers of Fengnest smart express boxes, about 50% of its income comes from Fengnell, and is expected to fully benefit from the growth of Fengnest capital expenditure.
Fengnest takes asset optimization as its main task in 2019, and its capital expenditure is not good compared with the same period last year; it is expected to obtain a new round of financing in 2020 or two years later, driven by policies and diversified smart cabinet capital expenditure plans, to meet the inflection point of the boom. Zhilai Technology and Fengnao closely cooperate in the research and development of all kinds of smart cabinets, and have a joint shareholder Shunfeng Investment (holding Fengnell 18.95% / Zhilai Technology 2.78%), and the market share may increase steadily in the future. Double-click good to meet the "high growth of customer capital expenditure + share increase".
3) Zhilai Technology's overseas intelligent express box business for customers such as Amazon.Com Inc can be expected to continue to grow rapidly: due to the large volume of e-commerce sales and logistics distribution of Amazon in developed countries in Europe and the United States, the number of smart express boxes put in by Amazon is still small compared with its "last kilometer" distribution volume, and there is still a large room for growth in the existing smart express boxes. In addition, the continuous promotion and development of the new series of Amazon smart express boxes will help to increase the demand for smart express boxes in Amazon and help the company's business performance to continue and steadily improve. In 2019, the company's overseas business showed an obvious acceleration trend, and sustained high growth is expected.
4) the laying of diversified intelligent cabinets opens the space for growth. At present, the penetration rate of smart express box is only about 1Accord 3. In addition, Fengnest launched a pilot project to lay diversified smart cabinets in 2019, and it is expected to continue to expand investment in smart cabinets other than smart express boxes in 2020. High-speed rail lockers, fresh cabinets, fusion cabinets (regional delivery of goods, express terminal distribution optimization) may be expected to gradually increase. At the same time, intelligent letter boxes have increasingly become the standard allocation of residential areas, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia and other provinces and cities policy documents gradually introduced, one cabinet of the market ceiling or more than 3 times the smart express box. Zhilai Technology is a diversified intelligent cabinet manufacturer, the main products include intelligent express box equipment, self-service electronic storage equipment, intelligent newspaper boxes, sorting cabinets, fresh cabinets, bookcases, vending machines, RFID intelligent identification lockers, intelligent charging cabinets and other customized intelligent interactive devices.
It is estimated that the net profit of homing in 19-21 years is 2.74 million, 419 and 535 million, corresponding to EPS of 2.74, 4.19 and 5.35 yuan, and the previous share price PE is 29.7, 19.4 and 15.2 X. the valuation of the company is still at a low level, and the company is rated as "overweight" for the first time.
Risk hint
The pace and amount of financing may be lower than expected, thus affecting capital expenditure; if the duration of the epidemic exceeds market expectations, it will have an impact on the company's delivery, production and acceptance.