Main points of investment:
Maintain the profit forecast, maintain the target price of 23 yuan, and maintain the "overweight" rating. The net profit from 2020 to 2022 is 7.32 RMB RMB, corresponding to EPS0.59/0.92/1.22 Yuan. The company promised executives that there are no plans to reduce its holdings in the next six months, giving the company 25 times PE in 2021 and maintaining the target price of 23 yuan.
Promote the subsidiary employee stock ownership plan to build a global e-cigarette sales network system. The company's holding subsidiary "No.1 Machine" is one of the largest e-cigarette sales companies in China. At the same time, the company owns 20% of the employees of CEO and the entire management team, fully mobilizing the enthusiasm of the team. In the past, in less than a year, it has rapidly opened up more than 3000 stores. In addition, it has also opened up nearly 5000 store channels and stores, relying on the company's strong logistics system and channel management ability for more than a decade. Open the company's brand-new growth ceiling.
The complex demand of offline channels is trivial, which requires years of accumulation in the industry. The market believes that compared with the diversion of online e-commerce platforms, the construction of offline channels has relatively low traditional barriers; we believe that due to the policy of banning online sales of e-cigarettes, the speed of offline store expansion and the location of the location will be the most critical factors for which company can win. E-cigarette offline channel construction needs to infiltrate into supermarkets, stores, Chaopai stores and other small granularity markets, and put forward higher requirements for channel management. The T1-T6 channel system and 100, 000 stores built by Ashder are the most favorable supplement.
Catalyst: e-cigarette penetration accelerated, Honor, Apple Inc mobile phone market sales exceeded expectations
Risk hint: cooperation with e-cigarette manufacturers is not as expected, and the sales of the company's main cooperative mobile phone manufacturers are not as expected.