By reviewing the three rounds of chip blockade in the United States in the past three years, we summarize the three stages of China's semiconductor development:

The first round of blockade:Restrictions on upstream chip suppliers of Huawei terminals in May 2019 in order to get stuckChip downstream finished product。

The second round of blockade:In September 2020, the upstream wafer foundry chain designed by Hayes was restricted to be stuck.Mid-stream foundry of chip。

Third round of blockade:Restricting the semiconductor supply chain upstream of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation in December 2020 is essentially stuck.ChipUpstream equipment。

We sawThe blockade of the United States follows the industrial chain all the way to the upstream bottom supply chain.. In order to cope with this great change in the living environment, China's semiconductor industry has also made three rounds of major adjustments:

The first stage: the terminal factory drives upstream design and closed testing.

We divide semiconductors into upstream, middle and downstream, of which the most downstream are fabless and closed test, and the downstream of the chip is directly bound to the terminal factory (mobile phone, computer, etc.), so we see that after Huawei is listed in the physical list by the United States in 2019, there will be a considerable part of Huawei.The transfer of chip orders to the domestic "spare tire" supply chain has directly and significantly promoted the accelerated growth of revenue and performance of domestic chip design (analog, digital, RF, storage) and closed testing companies.。

In addition to purchasing domestic supply chains, Huawei Hayes has achieved a world-class level in many areas of chip design based on its years of profound patent accumulation and R & D. the whole chip design industry has attracted a large level of pull because of external pressure.This is the original behind the A-share semiconductor bull market that began in 2019.因。

The second stage:FablessDrive upstream wafer generation factories

Since all the fabs around the world, includingTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd has adopted a large number of American technologies (semiconductor equipment, materials, EDA/IP)The second round of entity list restrictions on Huawei in the United States are directly targeted at Fab contract manufacturing.At this time, the main contradiction of China's semiconductor industry has gone from the lack of finished chip products to the lack of chip foundry.

After overseas Fab factories were unable to provide wafer foundry for Huawei Hayes, domestic wafers have become an alternative. After years of development, with the cooperation of domestic fabless giants, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation has mass-produced 14nmFinFET technology in 2020 and made a transition to Nylon 1 node. this is a historic breakthrough in China's integrated circuit industry, becoming the third FinFET fab member in the world, and represents a phased breakthrough in process adjustment.It provides experience for domestic mature process fab factory.。

The third stage: the fab drives the upstream equipment and materials.

At a time when the FinFET process is breaking through one after another, a new round of entity list in the United States at the end of 2020 points directly to fab Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, because semiconductor equipment is the chassis of the fab, while American equipment manufacturers occupy about 50% of a fab production line (PVD, etching machine, CVD, Imp, Clean, Furnace). AMAT, LAM and KLAC are all global monopoly equipment giants and are still irreplaceable in advanced node processes.

However, at the mature process node, domestic and Japanese equipment can be replaced to a considerable extent.At present, the main contradiction in China's semiconductor industry is not the lack of technology, but the lack of semiconductor equipment and materials.. As the European ASML DUV lithography machine (.13um-7nm) has not hindered the supply to China, the core contradiction of China's semiconductor industry in the future is to make up for the shortcomings from the root technology (semiconductor equipment, materials) to achieve real supply chain security.

Based on this, Chinese semiconductors will move towards mature process, double cycle and root technology in the future.

1、From the simple pursuit of advanced technology-> Return to mature process("new 55nm" is much larger than "old 7nm")

2、By external circulation-> Inside and outsideDouble cycle(de-A, not localization)

3、Make up the deficiency board by the dry technology-> root technology (design and manufacturing are not root technology)

We reiterate our recommendation on the three levels of semiconductors and recommend that we pay attention to:

1. Lack of chip design:Weier shares, Zhuosheng Micro, Jingchen shares, Shengbang shares, Huiding Technology, Zhaoyi Innovation, Lanci Technology, Ziguang Zhanrui, Hengxuan Technology, Core original shares, Silipu

2. Lack of contract manufacturing closed test:Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, Huarunwei, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Wentai Technology, Changdian Science and Technology, Shenzhen Science and Technology, Jingfang Technology, Huatian Science and Technology, Tongfu Micro Power, Shilan Wei, Yangjie Technology, Agile Micro Power

3. Lack of equipment and materials:North Huachuang, Huafeng Measurement and Control, Yitang Semiconductor, Wanye Enterprise, Shengmei Semiconductor, Precision testing Electronics, Central shares, Lion Micro, Anji Technology, Jiangfeng Electronics, Shanghai Silicon Industry, Jacques Technology, Sheng Gong Co., Ltd.

Risk Tips:The intensification of trade frictions between China and the United States has triggered a new round of blockade; downstream demand for semiconductors is lower than expected; product development and process promotion are not as expected