The Ministry of Ecology and Environment promotes the carbon peak action in the building materials industry, which is conducive to the development of green building materials and prefabricated buildings. 1) on January 11, 2021, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment recently issued the "guidance on Co-ordinating and strengthening the work related to Climate change and Ecological Environment Protection", which pointed out that every effort should be made to promote the peak action of carbon dioxide emissions, promote key industries such as building materials, iron and steel, and non-ferrous metals to put forward clear targets and formulate action plans for reaching the peak. At the same time, pilot demonstrations on coordinated control of air pollutants and greenhouse gases will be carried out in building materials, iron and steel, non-ferrous and other industries. Zhao Jinping, director of Zhongguancun Institute of Human settlement Engineering and Materials, said that the proposal of this goal will accelerate the development of the green building materials industry. 2) on January 16, the China Building Materials Federation issued the "proposal to promote carbon Peak and carbon Neutralization Action in the Building Materials Industry", which proposes to take more measures at the same time to effectively promote the carbon emission reduction work in the building materials industry.
It includes adjusting and optimizing the industrial product structure and promoting the green and low-carbon transformation and development of the building materials industry.
We will promote the transformation of the building materials industry to lightweight, terminal and manufactured products.
China's construction accounts for a relatively large proportion of carbon emissions (19.5% of the national energy carbon emissions in 2017). Prefabricated buildings can reduce pollution and carbon emissions, and the development trend of the industry is expected to be further strengthened under the background of carbon peak. According to the China Building Energy consumption Research report (2019), the total building carbon emissions in 2017 was 2.044 billion tons of CO2, accounting for about 19.5% of the national energy carbon emissions. According to the paper "the Development significance and rise of prefabricated buildings", compared with traditional buildings in the past, prefabricated buildings can greatly reduce the consumption of formwork, thermal insulation materials and water and electricity in construction projects. and can reduce most of the construction waste emissions, the effect of energy saving and emission reduction is very obvious, greatly reducing environmental pollution.
With the aggravation of the epidemic situation in Hebei, the site of the centralized isolation site has been formed, and the construction methods of integrated housing and assembly are expected to play an important role after Huoshenshan and Leishenshan. According to Xinhua Viewpoint, Shijiazhuang began to build a centralized isolation point on the 13th day, and on the 14th, the site of the centralized isolation point in Shijiazhuang City has completed land formation and began to harden the ground. Board house accessories are coming into the market one after another waiting to be installed. The isolation point, which covers an area of about 500 mu, will be built at noon on the 13th, using integrated houses that are easy to assemble, each of which is about 18 square meters, complete with water and electricity. Modular box-type integrated house is a highly industrialized construction product, which has produced positive social benefits through rapid and efficient assembly construction. The rapid construction of emergency epidemic prevention hospitals not only fully reflects the advantages of modular box-type integrated houses as industrial construction products, but also reveals the industrial collaborative development model of active cooperation and close cooperation among construction-related industrial chain enterprises under the background of industrialized construction. Prior to this, Vulcan Mountain and Leishenshan Hospital both adopted assembly construction methods, with a high degree of industrialization, which on the one hand was reflected in factory prefabrication and on the other hand in on-site modular assembly, while adopting flow operation mode, housing construction, supporting installation, and cross-operation in case of emergency, so the construction speed was greatly speeded up. For example, Huoshenshan Hospital can be installed on the fourth day of construction.
Investment advice: maintain the overweight rating. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2020 to 2022 will reach 0.77 yuan, 1.01 yuan and 134 million yuan respectively, an increase of 14%, 31% and 33% over the same period last year, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 44, 33 and 25 times.
The prefabricated construction industry is currently supported by policies, and the industry is in a period of high growth. The company's Jiangsu Suqian production base was successfully put into production in the first half of 2019, improving the capacity layout. The company has strong technical and order-taking ability; after the controlling shareholder becomes China Rallway, it is expected to achieve business coordination.
Risk hints: policy support in the prefabricated construction industry is lower than expected; competition in the industry intensifies; downstream demand for prefabricated construction is lower than expected; raw material costs grow higher than expected; China Rallway brings lower-than-expected business support to the company; loss or aggravation of impairment of assets such as bad debts.
