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伟能集团(1608.HK):尽管受疫情影响 盈利仍维持高速增长

Vaillant Group (1608.HK): Profit continues to grow rapidly despite the impact of the pandemic

招銀國際 ·  Jan 19, 2021 00:00

We have recently updated our business information with Weineng Group. The progress of the IBO project and the Myanmar joint venture project affected by the intensification of the COVID-19 epidemic in Southeast Asia experienced some delays in the fourth quarter, while shipments of the SI systems integration business maintained steady growth throughout 2020. We lowered our earnings outlook for 2020-21 by 28.9%, respectively, by 35.1% to reflect the slowdown in new installation of IBO and higher than our previously expected LNG purchase price. We expect the company's profit growth to still reach 78.3% in 2020. As a result, our DCF target price for the company has been lowered by 26.9% to HK $4.00 per share. At present, the company's market capitalization is 8.7 times forward 2021 earnings, and we think the company's valuation is attractive. Maintain the buy rating.

The impact of the epidemic began to show in the fourth quarter. With the increase in the number of COVID-19 infections in Southeast Asian countries, the company's IBO business has encountered some delays in Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Indonesia. The electricity demand in the areas covered by IBO business is also dragged down to a certain extent, resulting in the impact on the power generation of some projects. The gas peak shaving units in the UK are affected by the local city closure measures and the process of Brexit. We believe that there has been a 3-6-month delay in Werneng's IBO project reserve, and we have lowered the company's forecast for new capacity to a more conservative forecast.

Myanmar joint venture projects will drive earnings growth. Although there have been some delays in the capacity release process of the Myanmar project affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, we believe that the progress of the joint venture project is still moving methodically towards the target process. The re-election of Aung San Suu Kyi and her Democratic League in November 2020 is expected to further strengthen the company's joint venture project operation, as the company's three projects are a very important source of power supply for Myanmar. In addition to favorable election results, the joint venture project ushered in its customized floating storage unit (FSU) in Myanmar at the end of November 2020, marking an important project milestone for the project. Based on the more conservative assumption of joint venture project utilization and the purchase price of LNG, we have reduced the profit contribution of the joint venture project 2020 Universe by 44.7% to HK $23.0 million respectively.

System integration business sales acceleration. The company signed a distribution agreement with MTU's generator business sales in China. Over the past few years, the company has recorded steady growth in the revenue side of its systems integration business. Looking ahead, with the increasing demand for data centers, 5G base stations, marine gas turbines and renewable energy peak shaving units, we expect the company's system integration business to maintain good growth momentum. We expect the company's systems integration business to maintain low double-digit growth in 2020-21.

Profits will grow by 78.3% in 2020. We cut the company's earnings outlook for 2020-22 by 28.9% Mel 35.1% to reflect the impact of the epidemic and more conservative business assumptions. Despite the decline in earnings, we expect the company to achieve rapid earnings growth in 2020 due to profit contributions from Myanmar projects and the new IBO business. We forecast the company's profit growth of 78.3% and 50.1% respectively in 2020max for 21 years. The company is expected to issue a profit forecast in the near future. We maintain our buy rating on the company, lowering our target price by 26.9% to HK $4.00 per share.

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