RPT-ANALYSIS-Ultra long bonds are back in force as rock-bottom rates create sweet spot

RPT-分析-超长债券重新生效,因为最低利率创造了甜蜜点

2021/01/19 15:00  路透社
(Repeats Monday story without changes)
* France set to issue to new 50-year bond in coming days
* Belgium, Spain, other possible candidates for 50-year issuance
* EMs skewed long-bond issuance towards ultra-longs in 2020
* Don't rule out 100-year Italy bond - analyst
By Dhara Ranasinghe
LONDON, Jan 18 (Reuters) - More governments are selling bonds that mature in 30, 50 and even 100 years' time, capitalising on rock-bottom borrowing costs and a willingness among investors to look past risks for the sake of slightly higher yields.
After Germany's state of North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) raised 2 billion euros on Jan. 5 via a 100-year issue, France said on Monday it would soon sell a 50-year bond, its first new debt at that maturity since 2016.
A brisk start that has also seen Mexico and Indonesia sell 50-year bonds could mean issuance volumes approach levels seen in 2016, when euro zone governments sold a record 19 billion euros of bonds with maturities of 30 years and over.
"It feels more like 2016," said Lee Cumbes, head of public sector debt, EMEA at Barclays. "Considering firm demand from investors and the issuers' current perspective, it seems like things are lining up for a high volume market again this year."
For borrowers, it's a no-brainer -- selling ultra-long debt allows them to lock in interest rates squashed to historically low levels by central bank stimulus.
Governments might also seek to smooth out a jump in borrowing to cover the costs of coronavirus; euro area net issuance alone will reach 541 billion euros this year, Societe Generale estimates, versus 531 billion euros in 2020.
That backdrop of low interest rates has already seen many euro zone governments extend the average maturity of their debt since the bloc's crisis of last decade, saving taxpayer money.

Ultra-long debt nevertheless remains a fraction of the overall market, accounting last year for about 14.6 billion euros of an estimated 1.23 trillion of gross issuance by euro zone governments, Rabobank data shows.
Long issues carry risks for investors, however -- above all of inflation rearing its head and hurting bond prices. And the longer the tenor, the greater such duration risk.
But faced with some $17 trillion in negative-yielding debt worldwide, fund managers are clamouring for assets offering even a few extra basis points of yield.
One solution is to move further out the curve. France's existing 50-year issue for instance yields 0.5% , versus -0.3% for its 10-year debt .
"I can assure you investors don't want to buy NRW at 1% but are forced to buy duration and that means ultra-long bonds," said one banker who arranges European government bond sales.
Barclays' Cumbes, who was involved in the NRW deal, noted the German state had sold such bonds for a third straight year now and each time "those order books have increased, along with larger deal size and earlier timing in the year".
HITTING A CENTURY
Even the 100-year tenor has already been tapped by companies such as Walt Disney and Coca-Cola and sovereigns such as Mexico, which sold its first century bond in dollars in 2010, and Austria, which did so in 2017.
Austria's 2020 century issue saw demand surpass the amount sold by nearly nine times.
Peru and Israel also placed 100-year bonds last year, with investors apparently undeterred by Argentina's default on the century bond it sold in 2017.
The share of long-dated debt in emerging markets has in fact increased in recent years to nearly one-third of overall supply, Morgan Stanley analysts note.
And the skew is moving towards tenors of 35 years or over, they say, estimating emerging sovereigns sold $24 billion worth of such debt in 2020 -- eight times more than in 2019.

Few analysts expect European issuers to go down the century route, sticking instead with the more familiar 50-year area. Spain, Italy and Belgium are seen as candidates for this maturity.
But Saxo Bank strategist Althea Spinozzi says Italy could probably raise 100-year cash at around 2.5%.
"The market is not talking about a 100-year bond from Italy but at this point in time why not?" she said. "There's low reinvestment risk and investors can take extremely long duration and basically ride the ECB" -- a reference to the suppression of borrowing costs by European Central Bank stimulus.
The exception to the ultra-long trend may be the United States, the world's biggest single sovereign borrower.
It sold 20-year bonds last year for the first time since 1986, a sign perhaps that it still sees room to target traditional points of the curve.

/><^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Ultra-long bond issuance in the euro area
Austria's 100-year bond
Emerging markets: ultra-long bond issuance
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
(Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; Additional reporting by Karin
Strohecker and Marc Jones; Editing by Sujata Rao and Catherine
Evans)
((Dhara.Ranasinghe@thomsonreuters.com; +442075422684;)
(重复周一的故事,不变)
*法国将在未来几天发行新的50年期债券
*比利时、西班牙和其他可能的50年期债券发行候选国
*新兴市场在2020年将长期债券发行向超长期倾斜
*不排除100年期意大利债券--分析师
达拉·拉纳辛哈(Dhara Ranasinghe)著
伦敦,1月18日(路透社)-越来越多的政府正在出售30年、50年甚至100年后到期的债券,利用极低的借贷成本和投资者为了略高的收益率而忽略风险的意愿。
在德国北莱茵-威斯特伐利亚州(NRW)1月5日通过发行100年期债券筹集20亿欧元后,法国周一表示,将很快发售50年期债券,这是自2016年以来首个该期限的新债。
墨西哥和印度尼西亚也发售了50年期债券,这一开门红可能意味着发行量接近2016年的水平,当时欧元区各国政府发售了创纪录的190亿欧元30年及以上期限的债券。
巴克莱(Barclays)欧洲、中东和非洲地区公共部门债务主管Lee Cumbes表示:“感觉更像是2016年。”“考虑到投资者的强劲需求和发行人目前的观点,今年似乎又要迎来一个高成交量的市场了。”
对于借款人来说,这是不需要动脑筋的--出售超长期债券可以让他们锁定被央行刺激措施压低到历史低位的利率。
各国政府还可能寻求消除借款激增的问题,以支付冠状病毒的成本;法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)估计,仅欧元区今年的净发行量就将达到5410亿欧元,而2020年为5310亿欧元。
在低利率的背景下,自欧元区过去十年的危机以来,许多欧元区政府已经延长了债务的平均期限,从而节省了纳税人的钱。

不过,荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)的数据显示,超长期债券仍只占整个市场的一小部分,去年在欧元区各国政府估计1.23万亿欧元的总发行量中约占146亿欧元。
然而,长期债券发行给投资者带来了风险--最重要的是通胀抬头并损害债券价格。而且,期限越长,这种持续时间风险就越大。
但面对全球约17万亿美元的负收益率债务,基金经理们争先恐后地要求提供哪怕是几个基点额外收益率的资产。
一种解决方案是进一步走出曲线。例如,法国现有的50年期债券收益率为0.5%,而其10年期债券收益率为-0.3%。
“我可以向你保证,投资者不想以1%的价格买入NRW,而是被迫买入存续期,这意味着超长期债券,”一位安排欧洲公债发售的银行家表示.
参与NRW交易的巴克莱(Barclays)Cumbes指出,德国政府目前已连续第三年发售此类债券,而且每次“随着交易规模的扩大和今年时间的提前,这些债券的订单都有所增加”。
冲击一个世纪
甚至连百年男高音也已经被华特迪士尼(Walt Disney)和可口可乐(Coca-Cola)等公司以及墨西哥和奥地利等主权国家利用。墨西哥在2010年发行了第一只美元世纪债券,奥地利在2017年发行了这一债券。
奥地利2020年发行的世纪债券的需求量超过了销售量近9倍。
秘鲁和以色列去年也发行了100年期债券,投资者显然没有被阿根廷在2017年出售的世纪债券违约吓倒。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师指出,近年来,新兴市场长期债务占总供应量的比例实际上已上升至近三分之一。
他们说,这种偏差正在向35年或35年以上的期限发展,估计新兴主权国家在2020年出售了价值240亿美元的此类债券,是2019年的八倍。

几乎没有分析师预计欧洲发行人会走上世纪之路,而是坚持更熟悉的50年期债券。西班牙、意大利和比利时被视为这一期限的候选国。
但盛宝银行策略师Althea Spinozzi说,意大利可能会以2.5%左右的利率筹集100年期现金。
“市场不是在谈论意大利的100年期债券,但在这个时间点上,为什么不呢?”她说。“再投资风险很低,投资者可以承受极长的期限,基本上可以搭乘欧洲央行的顺风车”--指的是欧洲央行(ECB)刺激措施压低借贷成本。
超长期趋势的例外可能是美国,它是世界上最大的单一主权借款国。
该公司去年发售了20年期债券,这是自1986年以来的首次,这一迹象或许表明,它仍看到了瞄准曲线传统点的空间。

/>欧元区的超长期债券发行
奥地利的100年期债券
新兴市场:超长债券发行
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(Dhara Ranasinghe报道;Karin补充报道
Stroherker和Marc Jones;Sujata Rao和Catherine编辑
埃文斯)
(Dhara.Ranasinghe@thomsonreurs.com;+442075422684;)

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