Items:
The company announced its results, KuaiBao, with revenue of 2.518 billion in 2020, an increase of 11.68% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 383 million, an increase of 13.57% over the same period last year, deducting 319 million of non-return net profit, an increase of 12.26% over the same period last year.
Comments:
The performance was in line with expectations, and Q4 revenue and profits improved. The company's Q4 revenue was 769 million, up 14.61% from the previous month, deducting about 116 million from the previous month, 27.5% higher than Q3, deducting 103 million from non-profit, and 33.77% higher than Q3.
Q4 revenue reached a new high, mainly due to the company's strong product orders and full production capacity. The rapid growth of homing profit compared with the previous month is mainly due to the one-time R & D sample delivery cost of Q3, the return of Q4 to normal, the increase of superposition rate, the improvement of product structure and the significant improvement of profit margin.
The demand for consumer aluminum electrolysis is stable, and Ai Hua's competitive advantage is stable. Aihua aluminum electrolytic capacitor has the first share in the consumer category, and the products are mainly used in household appliances, fast charging, lighting LED and so on. Recently, some manufacturers of terminal mobile phone brands have announced that they will not be equipped with standard chargers. The market was once worried that this policy would affect the demand for aluminum electrolysis related to charging. There is still much room for improvement in the actual permeability of fast charging. Judging from the user experience, the demand for spontaneous purchase of fast charging is still strong. The sales volume of fast charging on the third-party platform is good. The company actively cooperates with contract manufacturers to expand downstream customer coverage, and the competitive advantage is still stable. Production capacity is still in short supply.
Production capacity expansion accelerates industrial layout, and product structure is continuously optimized. The share of the company's products in the consumer category is relatively high, but the proportion of industry is small, which is mainly due to capacity constraints. In 19 years, the company's industrial income accounted for only 16%. In 20 years, the company has begun to speed up industrial customer sample certification. Breakthroughs have been made in industrial control, power supply, inverter and other fields. From a mid-point of view of the industry, photovoltaic, electric vehicles, base stations and other prosperity is better. The company's new horn capacitor capacity has been put into production at the beginning of the 21st century, and it is expected that it will continue to climb to contribute revenue in the first quarter. With the launch of production capacity, the company actively develops industrial customers, grabs overseas factory orders, and steadily increases its global share.
Supply-side reform promotes the concentration of the industry, and the integrated layout consolidates competitive advantages. The production link of aluminum electrolytic capacitor has great pollution, and the important raw material aluminum foil belongs to the industry with high energy consumption. Since the supply-side reform, the production capacity has shrunk obviously, and the industry concentration has increased obviously. Ai Hua adjusted its strategy in time, and began to lay out upstream aluminum foil in 18 years. At present, it has built production capacity of chemical foil and corroded foil in Xinjiang and Nantong respectively. The self-sufficiency rate of medium and high voltage aluminum foil has reached 70%, effectively ensuring the stability of its own raw material prices, and making better profits through exporting aluminum foil.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating. The company's current production capacity is in short supply, as new product research and development affects short-term profit margins, next year, with the introduction of new production capacity and aluminum foil self-sufficiency rate, the company's revenue and profit is expected to usher in faster growth. In view of the company's leading position in the aluminum electrolytic capacitor industry and downstream industrial control / fast filling bearing, reference to peer Sanhuan Group / Fenghua Hi-Tech / Jianghai shares corresponding to a 21-year average of 30X, the company is given a 21-year average of 30 times PE, corresponding to the target price of 36 yuan, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: downstream applications are not as expected, capacity expansion is not as expected, industry competition is intensified, raw material prices fluctuate sharply, and new product development is not as expected.