This report is read as follows:
It is expected that 21H1 SMGP Phase II 45MW and American Star Peak Phase I 12.5MW will enter COD. Oil-free ORC expander is more environmentally friendly and simple, which is conducive to the promotion of Kaishan wellhead module power station model, and EPC is expected to continue to expand.
Main points of investment:
Conclusion: the fixed increase has been completed, and the net capital raised is 1.073 billion yuan to ensure the follow-up investment of SMGP. SMGP Phase II 45MW is expected to be 21H1 COD, more environmentally friendly, simple oil-free ORC screw machine is conducive to the promotion of wellhead module power station. Maintain the profit forecast for 2020-22, based on the fixed increase of 136 million equity, the EPS in 2020-22 will be adjusted to 0.27,0.51,0.67 yuan, maintain the target price of 30.83 yuan, increase holdings.
The fixed increase in fund-raising has been completed to ensure the follow-up investment in SMGP. The total amount of capital raised by the fixed increase is 1.1 billion yuan, and the net amount after deducting the issuance fee is 1.073 billion yuan, which will be replaced by the investment of its own funds in the previous period. According to the fixed increase plan, the construction scale of SMGP Phase II is 114MW, with an investment plan of US $477 million (estimated at the current exchange rate of 6.47 yuan, equivalent to 3.086 billion yuan). According to the PPA electricity price of US $0.081 per kilowatt-hour, the annual revenue is expected to reach US $76.85 million (equivalent to RMB 497 million yuan) after reaching production.
The first oil-free ORC screw expander was successfully connected to the grid, and the second unit of SMGP Phase II 45MW was connected to the grid. According to the official WeChat of Kaishan Group, the first ORC oil-free screw expander in the second phase of SMGP was successfully connected to the grid, with a net output of 3.75MW. Oil-free ORC screw expander does not need lubricating oil separation device, which is more environmentally friendly and simple, and is beneficial to popularize the development mode of Kaishan wellhead module power station.
The construction of SMGP power stations in Indonesia and the United States have been steadily advanced, and the construction of EPC is expected to continue to expand. In the second phase of SMGP, 45MW has completed the trial operation of the second generator set, and we expect that 21H1 can COD; the first phase of 12.5MW power station in Satr Peak in the United States, but the construction of transmission network has been delayed due to the epidemic, and it is expected that 21H1 can also be COD. We believe that 60-70MW COD can be completed every year, and drilling technology, new equipment application and waste well recovery will continue to reduce development costs. With the expansion of self-operation scale, the Kaishan wellhead power station model will be recognized globally, and EPC is expected to continue to expand.
Risk tips: repeated overseas outbreaks have led to delays in the development of power plants; follow-up financing is not up to expectations.
