In 2010, you walk into a 4S store, learn about the various configurations of a car and its corresponding price, and finally finalize the purchase. After buying a car, the follow-up service has an inseparable relationship with you. If you upgrade the software such as navigation, you have to go back to the 4S store.

In 2020, you will check the vehicle configuration online, walk into the store, and simply test drive and decide to buy it. Subsequent software upgrades only need to download remote updates on the Internet. Compared with local updates, this kind of car, which can continue to enjoy follow-up services after purchase, makes the relationship between consumers and car companies closer.

As the so-called autopilot technology has been gradually installed in mass production models, the current form of autopilot allows drivers to liberate their right foot under limited conditions. In the foreseeable future, high-level self-driving technology will be used in mass-produced models, and self-driving on the street may no longer be empty talk.

With self-driving as the vision, from now on, to build a business model that belongs to self-driving, maybe it is time for car companies to start preparing.

In 2030, you bought a smart car for the same price as ten or twenty years ago, and then. This may be the beginning of your consumption.

Tesla, Inc. 's first autopilot subscription system

At the end of 2020, Musk said on his usual social media that Tesla, Inc. would launch a FSD subscription service at the beginning of 2021.

FSD, Tesla, Inc. 's fully autonomous driving kit, in Musk's explanation is that the hardware is already self-driving, but the driver still needs to put his hands on the steering wheel to take over at any time, but FSD has made great progress in intelligence.

Musk only mentioned an autopilot subscription model, but caused a lot of people to guess. Judging from the current situation, the earliest "beneficiaries" of FSD subscription service are Tesla, Inc. car rental users.

In the past year, as the price of Tesla, Inc. 's FSD suite continued to rise, from $7000 to $10000 (only in the United States), netizens complained to Musk that it was not necessary to buy a complete autopilot service if he had rented Tesla, Inc. for a long time. Musk immediately offered a subscription service.

As for the price, how to subscribe, according to the number of days, months or years, there is no specific answer. However, it has been calculated that if you buy it in 72-month installments at the FSD price of $7000 at the time, the average monthly price is $97, which means that the monthly price of the subscription service must be more than $100. But as FSD is getting closer and closer to us, the rising trend continues, and the price is still incalculable.

With regard to Tesla, Inc. 's importance to autopilot, it is also possible to increase the subscription system in addition to an one-off buyout service.

As early as 2019, Musk was touting Tesla, Inc. 's autopilot. In a conference call with investors at the time, he mentioned that Tesla, Inc. 's car, solar and energy businesses were only value support, but the autopilot system currently under development would turn Tesla, Inc. into a company with a market capitalization of $500 billion.

The "autopilot system under development" refers to FSD, and as of January 14, 2021, Tesla, Inc. 's total market capitalization has exceeded 800 billion US dollars.

Musk also said that because Tesla, Inc. can remotely upgrade the car's self-driving function, the company's electric cars will continue to increase in value, unlike all other cars on the market. At the same time, he also mentioned several times in the earnings call that FSD would be listed as a paid service; when someone questioned Tesla, Inc. 's profit margin, Musk would also mention: "when it comes to profit margin, if people take autopilot into account, all these other profit margins will not be worth mentioning. "

In the long run, once Tesla, Inc. 's official version of FSD is launched, there must be a subscription business model, no matter for users who rent or buy cars, they can find a solution that suits them.

The difference between NIO Inc. and Tesla, Inc.

Coincidentally, on NIO Inc. 's NIO Day on January 9 this year, Li Bin inadvertently threw out an autopilot subscription service, stood on the same starting line as Tesla, Inc., and even took two more steps forward.

NIO Inc. 's NAD (NIO Autonomous Driving) system, released with the first intelligent electric car ET7, adopts a service subscription model on the standard hardware, with a monthly service fee of 680 yuan.

NIO Inc. specially mentioned to media such as ID:geekpark that he would consider making the subscription service more granular, such as on a daily basis. But the only thing that is clear is that NIO Inc. 's NAD autopilot service does not have an one-off buyout option.

This has become a very interesting thing. The new forces of domestic car manufacturing, led by NIO Inc. and XPeng Inc., began to carry lidar on the next generation of self-driving cars, and there was a difference with Tesla, Inc. 's emphasis on the technical route of not using lidar; in the self-driving mode, NIO Inc. has also clearly played a card of differentiation.

As for why this choice, it is not NIO Inc. for differentiation and differentiation, is likely to be the needs of the two enterprises are inconsistent, leading to such a result.

As mentioned in the previous article in Geek Park, with the accumulation of production capacity, the integrity of the technical system, and the influence of the brand, Tesla, Inc. is frantically grabbing market share out of the urgency of the market. New models, price cuts and other operations are all within this range. In people's description, Tesla, Inc. is becoming the Volkswagen and Ford of the era of smart electric cars.

When it comes to autopilot, the word scale effect is also very appropriate for Tesla, Inc.. As we all know, the reason why Tesla, Inc. Autopilot has won more praise in various auxiliary driving technologies is not only the accumulation of time, but also the use of hundreds of thousands of Tesla, Inc. electric cars running on the road to continuously obtain data and send them back to Tesla, Inc. 's server, enabling Tesla, Inc. to improve the autopilot system and promote its development.

Moreover, Musk has mentioned more than once that Tesla, Inc. will set up a Robotaxi (driverless taxi) fleet in the future, and the need for self-driving data is even more urgent.

As one of the core selling points, Tesla, Inc. naturally needs more users to participate in autopilot. Whether it is an one-off buyout or subscription to the service, the premise is that Tesla, Inc. wants users to use the service.

Compared with Tesla, Inc., NIO Inc., who pays more attention to brand building, has less urgent need for autopilot. Of course, subscription service does not mean it is not as good as a buyout. NIO Inc. is wading out a bold business route in the same way.

Autopilot, how to "krypton gold"?

In the smartphone industry, Apple Inc has gathered hundreds of millions of users around the world by relying on the unique ecological model of software and hardware, and Apple Inc can make a lot of money by relying on the platform model of App Store, and software services account for a higher and higher proportion of his income.

This seemingly "off-the-shelf" business model cannot be replicated by smart cars in the short term. According to the latest official figures, Tesla, Inc. sold 499000 vehicles worldwide in 2020, making it the world's largest manufacturer of smart electric vehicles. Apple Inc has sold more than 100 million iPhone units a year since 2012.

Therefore, Apple Inc's business model in software services may not be applicable to Tesla, Inc. or other smart car companies in the short term. Moreover, it is expected that ten years later, autopilot is likely to become a state of "letting a hundred flowers blossom", and will not be monopolized and become its core competitiveness.

Due to the great changes in the ratio of software and hardware and the previous traditional cars, software occupies a more and more important position in cars. At the same time, there is a high probability that autopilot will enter into public life in the next 10 years, and drivers will no longer need to take over. There must be more than buyout and subscription to explore the business model of autopilot.

1. Flow packet type

For example, is it possible to make autopilot mileage in the form of a traffic packet? Buy not by time but by mileage. Turn on autopilot mode if there is anything else you need to do. You can work in the car, have meetings, etc. Wait until there is nothing else, switch to manual driving and continue to enjoy driving.

two。 Fixed route type

Many people basically use driving to commute every day, and when people need to take the initiative to take over vehicles before the arrival of high-level self-driving, car companies may be able to upgrade certain fixed routes to "fully self-driving." it can be deeply combined with high-precision maps and road-surrounding infrastructure to achieve a high experience. It is reported that XPeng Inc. 's recently updated NGP (Navigation Guided Pilot) function cooperates with Gaojing map developed by Gaode to achieve a good driving aid effect on expressways.

Charging for a specific route in this way may save people's commuting time and do what they should do, and it won't seem unreasonable to buy the service.

In fact, a charging method such as a specific route may be more in line with the user's habits, because it belongs to a new model created in a specific scenario.

3. Combination charging type

Of course, there is still a lot of room for discussion and evolution in the business model that combines scenarios. For example, if the current self-driving technology can park independently, you may only need to drive close to the parking lot and get off in the future, and the vehicle will automatically look for a location in the parking lot, and the autopilot fee will be tied to the parking fee when you come out.

These predicted models will have more room to dig in the future, but more importantly, these business models should not be designed, but car companies will naturally grow in line with users' habits, which is the core requirement of a good business model.

It is conceivable that innovative business models will be adopted for self-driving and even many entertainment functions in cars in the future, and this is also the focus of competition for the new power of car-building in the future. But at least it is certain that cars in the future will not use traditional modes such as "boot advertising". Smart cars will be played in a variety of ways, which is precisely the most interesting part of it.