Announcement: the company announced a pre-increase in performance in 2020. It is expected that the net profit of homing in 2020 will increase by 65 million yuan to 75 million yuan over the same period, an increase of 70-80% over the same period last year. The net profit of non-homing will increase by 35 million yuan to 42 million yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 45-55% over the same period last year. The performance greatly exceeded expectations!
The main business of pumps continued to increase in the fourth quarter, supporting the continuation of the high growth trend. The main business of the company's traditional pumps continued to increase in the fourth quarter, especially the new gearbox pumps and other products increased significantly. Q4 is expected to achieve a net profit of 2843-38.43 million yuan in the single quarter, an increase of 76%, 137% over the same period last year, and deducting non-home net profit of 3273-39.73 million yuan, which is higher than 2019Q4's net profit of 3.92 million yuan. Overall, it continues to grow at a high rate in the third quarter.
At present, the company's main business of traditional pumps is in the stage of accelerating import substitution. ① commercial vehicles: diesel pump business continues to upgrade, into the United States Cummins, Caterpillar Inc, Scania, John Deere and other overseas leaders, as well as high-end horsepower generator sets, ship power and other high-end supply system, is expected to 2022-2023, the net income increment is expected to reach 400-500 million yuan. ② passenger car:
Gearbox pump business new customers Toyota Motor Corp (new energy), PSA, Changan Qingshan; oil pump business into Geely, Japanese Nissan, American Ford, France Peugeot Citroen and other global joint venture supporting system, and high value-added variable displacement oil pump put into production to promote the unit price up, is expected to 2022-2023, the net income increment is expected to reach 400-500 million yuan. In short, the company's main business in the context of import substitution acceleration, including Geely, Souter Transmission (Sany Group) and many other orders, looking forward to 2022-2023, in-hand orders corresponding to the new revenue of 8-1 billion yuan.
In addition, Dongjia Intelligent forward-looking layout EPS control system, another core growth point for the company, open the intelligent driving executive entrance. In 2019, the company established Dongjia Intelligence as a joint venture with its controlling shareholder and its controlling shareholder, and entered into the field of EPS. As the entrance to the executive end of intelligent driving, the EPS system is expected to continue to increase rapidly from the current value of 1000 yuan per bike with different functional levels. At the same time, as an enterprise dedicated to EPS R & D and production for 20 years, Yilida has more than 120 R & D personnel, covering professional fields such as automotive steering system product and structure design, control system hardware and software development, etc., has independent intellectual property rights of EPS core components, and is one of the first suppliers with the joint development capability of EPS software and hardware. And has been a breakthrough by Changan Automobile, Dongfeng well-off and other customers to get the supplier qualification of joint ventures such as Volkswagen Group, Dongfeng Peugeot and so on. At present, Dongjia Intelligence is mainly equipped with EPS control system. If 300000 and 400000 sets are achieved in 2021-2022, it is expected to achieve income of 150 million and 200 million, intelligent driving promotes EPS upgrade + import substitution acceleration, and EPS business increases in volume and price.
Raise earnings forecasts and maintain buy ratings. Combined with the performance forecast, the company will maintain the forecast of operating income of 12.2,15.1 and 1.86 billion yuan for 2020-2022, raise 20-year net profit to 160 million yuan (before the adjustment of 150 million yuan), and maintain the forecast of net profit for 21-22 years at 2.2 yuan and 280 million yuan, an increase of 73%, 38% and 26% over the same period last year, corresponding to 25, 18 and 14 times of PE. Previously, the supplier qualification of the company's traditional main business has been upgraded from a commercial vehicle to a passenger car system with more space, with better growth and stability, and the company has begun to match the EPS control system, and the fundamentals have changed. Continue to recommend and maintain the buy rating!