Forecast profit growth of 233.33% in 2020 compared with the same period last year.
The company's performance forecast: the net profit of homing in 2020 was 2.01-217 million yuan, an increase of 23% to 33% over the same period last year, while the net profit of 4Q20 was 608.777 million yuan, an increase of 16% and 48% over the same period last year.
Pay attention to the main points
Excluding the influence of one-time factors, the company's performance forecast is basically in line with our expectations: 1) since the 3Q20, the RMB has continued to appreciate, and the company uses hedging operations to reduce the risk of exchange rate fluctuations. The company forecasts that it will record a non-recurrent profit and loss of 24.2731 million yuan in 2020, of which we expect to be mainly one-time gains from hedging. 2) after deducting this part, the company deducted the net profit of non-return in 2020, an increase of 18% to 29% over the same period last year, while that of 4Q20 deducted the net profit of RMB 47,683,399 million in 2020, an increase of 9% and 47% over the same period last year.
3) the company's post-deduction performance forecast is basically in line with our expectations.
Domestic demand for washing machines recovers moderately. 1) in the domestic market, the online market at the retail end of washing machines shows a moderate trend of demand recovery. According to AVC, online retail sales of 3Q20/ 4Q20 washing machines grew faster than the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of + 29% and 38%. 2) at present, the company is the leader of the washing machine drainage pump, and the recovery of the washing machine market is conducive to the growth of the company's drainage pump business. The company predicts that revenue and profits will achieve positive growth in 2020 compared with the same period last year.
The growth of export shipments of washing machines has accelerated, and the company's market share of drainage pumps is increasing. 1) 2H20, the second outbreak of overseas epidemic, has not been effectively controlled so far. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, the export value of household appliances in 2Q20/ 3Q20/10 month / November is + 14%, + 14%, 40%, 40%, 62%, respectively. Among them, since September 2020, washing machine exports have become regular year-on-year, 3Q20/10 month / November washing machine export shipments year-on-year-4% "23%" 12%. 2) affected by the epidemic, global orders are concentrated to Chinese enterprises, and the increment of orders for drainage pumps comes more from Chinese enterprises. We expect the company's global market share to continue to increase. 3) although the rising exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, the rising cost of raw materials and other factors affect the enthusiasm of foreign trade enterprises to take orders, the overall overseas demand orders can be expected to 2Q2021, the company is expected to continue to benefit.
Hanyu is a competitive home appliance accessories company, the company's products to aluminum instead of copper, compared with Italian competitors have dual advantages in performance and cost, and continue to improve the efficiency of production automation.
Valuation and suggestion
Taking into account the continued high overseas demand and the impact of one-time income, we raised the 2020-2021 EPS forecast by 5% to 0.34 yuan / 0.36 yuan, and introduced the 2022 EPS forecast of 0.39 yuan for the first time. To maintain a neutral rating, taking into account the switch in valuation for the New year, and the expectation that the market has reflected the continued high demeanor of the export business, we maintain the target price of 6.78 yuan, corresponding to 19x/17x 2021max 22e Phand E, an increase of 15%. The current share price of the company corresponds to 16x/15x 2021 Universe 22e P Universe E.
Risk.
RMB exchange rate fluctuation risk; Sino-US trade friction risk; new business development risk.
