The forecast net profit in 2020 is RMB2.54-266 million, an increase of 71% to 79% over the same period last year. The company issued a performance forecast for 2020, which is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 2.54-266 million, an increase of 70.93% to 78.81% over the same period last year, of which the non-recurrent profit and loss is 11.36 million yuan. the company's profit is composed of Zebao's cross-border business and the original slide business. We judge that there may be a loss in the slide business affected by the epidemic in 2020, so it is estimated that the annual net profit of Zebao's cross-border business exceeds the combined homing net profit range. In order to encourage cross-border backbone personnel and grant equity incentives in the early stage, Zebao technology promised that the net profit in 2021 would not be less than 250 million yuan, and the growth rate of net profit in 2020 and 2122 would be no less than 30%. According to the performance forecast, we expect Zebao to fulfill its performance commitment.
Cross-border e-commerce continues to develop and is expected to continue to grow in 2021. We estimate that the net profit of Zebao cross-border e-commerce in the fourth quarter of 2020 is more than 100 million yuan, on the one hand, it comes from traditional shopping festivals such as Thanksgiving and Christmas in the fourth quarter, and on the other hand, because of the epidemic in 20 years, Amazon.Com Inc put the "prime day" in October, making the peak season more prosperous in the fourth quarter. Zebao Technology's revenue in the first half of the year was 1.78 billion yuan, up 68 percent from the same period last year, and its net profit in the first half was 148 million yuan, up 201 percent from the same period last year. If the overseas epidemic continues in 2021, we believe that the cross-border industry will continue to grow high, with the increase in penetration and the improvement of e-commerce awareness, large-size, home, high-price goods may usher in rapid growth.
"Home life plate + consumer electronics plate" two-wheel drive. The company develops cross-border business on the basis of the original precision metal business. Zebao Technology focuses on building its own brand development route, adheres to the "boutique" route, has brands and intellectual property rights of products on sale, and has formed six major brands: RavPower, TaoTronics, VAVA, Anjou, Sable and HooToo. The main product categories include power supply, Bluetooth audio, household appliances, computer and mobile phone periphery, personal health care, home textile home, intelligent hardware, beauty makeup and so on.
High proportion and high growth equity incentives demonstrate long-term confidence. The company's equity incentive, covering Zebao, including core management, technical and business personnel, a total of 51 people, a total of 4.13% equity. The incentive promises that the net profit of Zebao Technology in 2021 will not be less than 250 million yuan, and the growth rate of net profit in 2020 and 2122 will be no less than 30%. Zebao achieved a net profit of 154 million yuan in 2019 and will grow by 62% under the commitment in 2010. a high growth target has also been set in the next two years, with a commitment to net profit of 190 million yuan in 2020 compared with the acquisition of Zebao. It shows the strong confidence of the company.
Profit forecast and valuation. Taking into account the impact of equity incentive amortization expenses, we expect that EPS0.74/0.92/1.37 in 2020-22 will be given 30-35 times PE in 2021, with a reasonable valuation range of 27.46-32.03 yuan per share, maintaining a "better than the market" rating.
Risk hint. The overseas consumer market is weak, the international logistics is limited, the international trade rules change, and the risk of impairment caused by the unsalable overseas inventory assets.
