The current situation of the company
With the effective control of the epidemic, social zero consumption data have improved month by month since the second half of 2020, driven by factors such as the Singles Day Shopping Festival in November, communications equipment performed well, and the online penetration rate of physical goods increased to 25%. Gome, as a veteran of the retail industry, has been promoted in recent years to promote strategic transformation and build a dual-platform ecology online and offline. We believe that it is expected to benefit from the gradual warming trend of the industry and improve business performance.
Comment
1. The business situation is expected to improve gradually in the second half of the year. According to the third-party online crawler and grass-roots survey data we monitor, we expect that the company's revenue in the second half of 2020 is expected to improve significantly compared with the first half. According to Lianshang.com, the company's overall GMV of Singles Day is growing rapidly, including department store sales up 237%, maternal and infant sales 314%, and category expansion has made a breakthrough. Sales of laser TV and OLED TV increased by nearly 50% compared with the same period last year, clothes dryer sales increased by 175% compared with the same period last year, sales of 5G mobile phones increased by 237% month-on-month, sales of new energy-efficient air conditioners increased by 183% month-on-month, and superior categories maintained a good momentum. Sales of franchise stores increased by 227% over the same period last year, and offline channel advantages continued to be brought into play.
2. Constantly polish new retail capabilities and steadily promote cooperation with head e-commerce. On the one hand, the company has actively explored new models such as live streaming and community marketing, and has established a large number of gridded communities across the country, reaching a large user base. And join hands with CCTV to carry out dozens of live broadcasts. On the other hand, the company's strategic cooperation with Pinduoduo and JD.com has progressed steadily, with complementary advantages in traffic, supply chain and logistics. Gome's GMV on e-commerce platforms such as Pinduoduo and JD.com increased by 100 times in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year.
3. The follow-up needs to continuously track the effect of the company's business transformation. At this stage, the company revolves around the home life strategy, based on the overall solution provider, service solution, supply chain exporter, expand Gome's App and other digital local retail models, and create a diversified consumption scene; looking forward to 2021, the company plans to speed up the construction of a new Gome driven by both online and offline platforms, on the one hand, optimize the layout of stores, and empower its own supply chain advantages. On the other hand, through third-party platform cooperation and online community operation, contribute to the performance increment, the follow-up still need to pay attention to the progress and effect of the company's business transformation.
Valuation proposal
Keep the earnings forecast for 2020 and 2021 unchanged, and introduce the earnings per share forecast of 0.01 yuan for 2022. The current share price corresponds to 2021 / 2022, 0.3 times P, 0.3, P, etc. Maintain a neutral rating, corresponding to 2021 / 2022 0.3 times PUX 5, with 5% upside space.
Risk.
Competition in the industry continues to intensify, and the effect of the transformation is less than expected.