Summary of the report:
Micro-special motor has been ploughed for many years, and the related business has developed in an all-round way. At present, the company's main business includes sewing motor, wiper motor, automobile controller, small electrical motor electric control and new energy drive motor and so on. The operation of the company has entered a stable period and the profit situation has stabilized.
The electric car creates a broad space for the drive motor of the new energy passenger car. As one of the "three electricity", an incremental component of electric vehicles, the value of the drive motor assembly accounts for 5%, 10%. The general trend of automobile electrification, the upgrading of new energy vehicles + the trend of dual motors of luxury cars to enhance the value of bicycles driving motors, driving the motor industry "both quantity and price". We estimate that in 2025, the market space of motor assembly is 70.9 billion yuan, the market of drive motor is 24.8 billion yuan, and the CAGR in 5 years will reach 35%.
The industry is cleared, the pattern is reshaped, and the leading position of founder third party is highlighted. At present, the drive motor market is divided into three parts: self-produced, joint venture and third party. we expect that under the process of large-scale and mature industry, third-party companies will benefit more. In recent years, with the fierce competition in the market and the special supply relationship of the industrial chain, the trend of market concentration continues. Founder has gradually grown into a third-party leader, with a 6% market share (4th) company's leading position in 2019.
Stepping on the real demand downstream, the company accelerates its growth. After the epidemic in 2020, the C-terminal leading trend of the terminal market was gradually established, the demand structure of "funnel type" was gradually formed, and popular models emerged at both ends of the car class. With the long-term cooperation with Wuling, the company continues to add the "popular style car" Hongguang MINI, while supporting the high-end luxury car XPeng Inc. P7. Further optimization of product structure, casting brand effect, is expected to achieve a continuous breakthrough for customers.
New technology R & D casting long-term competitiveness. The company continues to invest in R & D. in 2019, the R & D expenditure is 110 million yuan, and the R & D expenditure rate is as high as 7.4%. The research and development of flat line motor has been carried out smoothly and has become a qualified supplier of Azura Power. In the current vertical independent supply system of the drive motor industry, the company cuts in in the form of Tier2 to expand its share in disguise.
Profit forecast and rating: from 2020 to 2022, we expect the company to achieve revenue of 1.192 million yuan and 1.557 billion yuan respectively, and to achieve a net profit of-0.1710 million yuan, corresponding to the corresponding PE of-211.48, 50.79 and 22.35 times, respectively. At present, the company is at the performance inflection point, the order is sufficient, the profit is better, the margin is upward. Drive motor business supporting high-end Chinese cars, improve product layout, third-party drive motor experts to accelerate the growth. Cover for the first time and give a buy rating.