Event: the product of Guangdong Zhonghao Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (trade name "Hinbik"), a subsidiary of the company, passed the health insurance negotiation and was included in the Health Insurance Catalog for the first time. The type of medical insurance is Class B, and the payment standard of medical insurance is 138yuan (10g:0.1 g / branch).
With price for quantity, the accessibility of drugs in patients with psoriasis is increased, and there is room for growth in the future. Benvimod successfully negotiated a price reduction to enter health insurance, the price is 138yuan (10g:0.1g/), limiting the second-line treatment of patients with mild to moderate stable psoriasis vulgaris. Before the price reduction, the price is 496 yuan per unit, buy four get two free, and the actual price is 331 yuan per unit, so the actual reduction after this negotiation is 58%. After this round of price reduction, the advantage of performance-to-price ratio is prominent. if it is calculated according to the average use of 8-12 drugs per year for 8-12 weeks, the amount of money for a single course of treatment after the reduction is 1104-1656 yuan, and the reimbursement for medical insurance is 70%, then the cost borne by the patients will be 331-497. the vast majority of patients can bear the cost. The reduction of the drug burden is expected to greatly increase the penetration rate of Benvimod. There are about 6.5 million patients with psoriasis in China. According to the 90% population drug use rate and 80% mild to moderate patients, it is assumed that the final drug penetration rate reaches 40%. If the annual drug use amount is 1104 yuan, the final sales scale is expected to reach 2.07 billion yuan.
Compared with carpotriol, Benvimod has obvious advantages in curative effect. In the phase Ⅲ trial, 686 patients were randomly assigned to receive treatment at 2:1:1 in either the Vimod cream, placebo or carpotriol group.
The results showed that after 12 weeks of treatment, the PASI75 response rate of the venvenod group was better than that of the carpotriol group and significantly better than that of the placebo group (50% vs 37% vs 14%). The overall evaluation of the researchers showed that PGA was significantly better than the placebo group (66% vs 34%). The percentage of patients with psoriatic lesion area and severity score decreased by 90% at the end of treatment (PASI90) and 50% at the end of treatment (PASI5 0) were analyzed. The results showed that there was a statistically significant difference between the Benvimod group and the placebo and carpotriol groups. The one-year observation experiment showed that the median remission period from cure to recurrence was about 36 weeks (9 months).
Maintain a "buy" rating. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2020 to 2022 is 0.8 pound 1.3 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.29 pound 0.48 pound 0.85 yuan respectively. The listing of the new drug Benvimod opens the room for the company's growth, and it is expected that with the release of the drug, the company's performance is expected to usher in a stage of rapid growth. Maintain "buy"
Rating.
Risk hint: the Vimod volume is lower than expected, the purchase of consumable belt fails to win the bid or the price reduction exceeds the expected risk, and the risk of R & D failure.