Events:
On December 29th, the company issued a suspension notice on planning the change of control of the company. Boschco received notice from Mr. Wang Shuangfei, Mr. Song Hainong, Mr. Yang Qifeng and Mr. Xu Kaishao. the above four are planning the transfer of shares and intend to transfer a total of 40 million shares to Guangzhou Environmental Protection Investment Group Co., Ltd by way of agreement transfer. Mr. Wang Shuangfei intends to entrust the voting rights of his 44991970 shares of the company to Guangzhou Environmental Protection Investment Group Co., Ltd., this transaction and related voting arrangements will lead to a change of control of the company. This transaction is subject to prior examination and approval by the competent departments such as the State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the Guangzhou Municipal people's Government.
Comments:
After 2018, the cases of state-owned equity changes introduced by environmental protection companies have increased significantly, and the proportion of shareholding changes has been increased. after the holding of state-owned enterprises, it has provided a stronger endorsement for environmental protection companies to obtain projects and financial support. Starting from 2018, enterprises in the environmental protection industry began to face the trend of changing from single shareholder structure to mixed shareholder structure. in the process of macro leverage, private environmental protection enterprises actively adopted various methods to deal with the adverse changes of the external environment, among which, the introduction of state-owned shareholders is one of the important ways. In the future, the development of environmental protection industry will change to information, resource and ecological upgrading, and the investment scale of the project will become larger and the content will be more complicated. after the holding of state-owned enterprises, it will be helpful for environmental protection enterprises to obtain financial support and enhance the competitiveness of bidding projects.
Recently, new projects are still winning bids one after another, increasing reserves for performance growth in 2021. In December 2020, the company is still winning new projects one after another. The consortium formed by the company and Huashi Group signed the "EPC General contract Project for sewage treatment Project of Baichuan High-end Biological Industrial Park in Baichuan District, Huashang District", with a project amount of 170 million yuan. The project will help the company to further develop and consolidate the sewage treatment market in the biological and pharmaceutical industries, and it is also an important achievement for the company to further expand the Anhui business market, and will have a positive impact on the company's future performance growth. The company's wholly-owned subsidiary Guangxi Colette Environmental Protection and Xiwu Banner Environmental Sanitation Institute signed the Xiwuzhumuqin Banner domestic waste comprehensive treatment operation franchise project service contract, the project amount is 46 million yuan / year, and the service cycle is 25 years. The total cost of 25 years of service is about 1.15 billion yuan.
There are still plenty of orders on hand, and the operation business is growing well. By the end of August 2020, the company still had 9.95 billion yuan in-hand orders, of which 5.62 billion yuan was invested in the company-controlled PPP project. of the remaining 4.331 billion yuan, EP/ EPC projects accounted for 63.6%, and operation orders accounted for 30.93%. In the first half of 2020, affected by the epidemic, the company's revenue and profit decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, but the operating income increased by 122% compared with the same period last year, forming a strong support for the company's performance.
Profit forecast and rating: the company is expected to achieve attributable net profit of 240 million yuan, 320 million yuan and 400 million yuan respectively from 2020 to 2022. The current stock price is 20.2 times PE valuation in 2020 and 15.2 times PE valuation in 2021, maintaining prudent recommendation rating. Risk tips: new orders and implementation are not up to expectations, program approval does not pass the risk, the overall market systemic risk.
