The pace of capital replenishment of the company lags behind so that it has experienced the pains of transformation. with the advent of high-quality development opportunities in the industry, the company still has the advantage of core customer group and outstanding advantages in the field of gem. It is optimistic that the company will further open up long-term development space after replenishing capital strength.
In the last round of re-capitalization of the securities industry, the pace of Guoxin Securities was relatively slow, and the expansion of the company was slower than that of the industry, and the pain of transformation was more obvious. The company officially landed in A-shares in 2014, the rhythm of supplementary capital is relatively backward, and the development of capital business lags behind the industry. As a result, in this round of commission war, the commission rate of the company's brokerage business follows the industry trend, which is relatively lethal to income. Secondly, the company's market share in institutional business and investment banking business has declined significantly in recent years. At the same time, the company's debt cost rate was at a relatively high level of large securities firms, which had a certain negative impact on the development of the company's capital business.
The securities industry brings a new round of development opportunities. The transformation of China's overall financing mode to direct financing further gives rise to investment banking opportunities; the adjustment of residents' asset allocation structure introduces long-term incremental funds, and the transformation of wealth management is accelerated; the downward trend of debt costs of securities companies is expected to continue, and the ROE center is expected to improve; policy dividends continue, leading securities firms have obvious advantages in capital strength and business capacity, which benefit the most.
Guoxin Securities still has the advantage of core customer group. At present, the transformation of wealth management in the industry has been accelerated, including the pilot landing of the qualification of public offering funds carried out by securities firms. In the future, with the deepening of the transformation of wealth management in the industry, the advantages of high net worth customers in the company's stock will be gradually highlighted, and the income-generating capacity and stability will be gradually enhanced.
The reform of gem registration system brings new development opportunities. The relevant institutional rules for the reform of the registration system were issued in June, and the first batch of enterprises on the gem were listed on August 24. Guoxin Securities has outstanding advantages in the field of gem, and it is expected that the investment banking business of medium-and short-term companies will usher in a rare period of development opportunities, which will then promote the development of securities financing, alternative investment subsidiaries and other business.
Investment advice: cover for the first time and give a "highly recommended-A" rating. The company has the advantages of the core customer base of wealth management and gem, and the company's investment banking business has ushered in new development opportunities under the reform of the registration system. The company has completed a fixed increase of 15 billion this year, and is optimistic that the company will enhance the strength of the capital business and further improve its profitability after making up for its business shortcomings. It is estimated that the net profit from 2020 to 2022 will be 7.4 billion yuan, 9.3 billion yuan and 11.1 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of + 51%, + 26% and + 19% respectively.
Risk tips: large fluctuations in the equity market, obvious tightening of regulatory policies, and intensified competition in the same industry.
