Main points:
Looking to the future, 1) the offline transformation of the main business store is gradually mature, the expansion of new stores is accelerated, the store efficiency is gradually improving, and the fourth quarter shows strong growth; 2) the X-BIONIC operation plan will gradually begin to land in 2021 and is expected to contribute new increments. At the same time, as an independent brand of high-end technology, the gross profit margin is higher than that of the agent brand, which is expected to increase the company's overall gross profit margin. 3) the domestic epidemic situation has been quickly controlled and the contribution increment of the newly opened park is superimposed, and the squirrel park project is expected to recover in 2021 with a low base. We estimate that in 2020, 2021, the EPS of 2022 will be-0.07, 0.21, 0.39, respectively, with a "overweight" rating for the first time.
Outdoor industry: during the industry adjustment period, the performance of high-end brands is better than that of the middle and low end. The outdoor market reached 25.92 billion yuan in 2014-2019, and the CAGR in 2019-2019 was only 5.24%. The industry concentration increased during the reshuffle period: since 2016, the number of domestic outdoor products brands has shown an overall downward trend, from 975 to 903 in 2018. During the industry adjustment period, high-end brands such as Archaeopteryx maintained rapid growth, with store efficiency of more than 10 million yuan in 2019.
Company advantages: high-end brand operation experience, high user repurchase rate 1) operation advantages: Archaeopteryx experience, can be copied to other high-end outdoor brands; 2) channel advantages: multi-brand collection store model, upstream and downstream bargaining power is strong; 3) Marketing advantages: outdoor event resources are rich, user repurchase rate is high.
Growth driver: the transformation of the main brand channel, looking forward to the growth drivers of new category power companies are: 1) the acquisition of X-BIONIC business in China (including trademarks and patents), high-end brands in the next city; 2) main business improvement: shopping malls and online two-wheel drive, focus on store efficiency improvement; 3) Squirrel Tribe: passenger flow recovery + new park, it is expected to recover from a low base in 2021.
Risk hint
X-BIONIC operation is not as expected, squirrel park passenger flow recovery is not expected, offline store expansion is not as expected, systemic risk.