Mankind will soon enter the third decade of the 21st century.

Under the flood of funds spawned by the mighty global liquidity, the rise of any new industry is a feast of capital, a carnival of giants, a paradise for winners and a graveyard for losers!

Just like the community group buying of the capital giant Eagle Lang Gu, everyone is making up stories, telling stories, listening to stories, and believing stories. The number of people bowing into the game is small, and there are even fewer people to solve specific problems; coupled with team changes, when the tide fades, what you see is not who is swimming naked, but chicken feathers.

What's more-for such an infinite game, there will never be a real end, and there will never be a permanent winner.

Just as Uber withdrew from China at the end of 2016, DiDi Global Inc. seemed to dominate the shared travel industry-but in January of the following year, cross-border robber Meituan launched a taxi-hailing service in the ancient capital Jinling: the war of shared travel lingered again.

In January this year, Tesla, Inc. 's highlight moment, Shanghai set up a factory, Musk a soul striptease detonated the stock price. Tesla, Inc. once had no short bones, but most of the bulls who persisted to the end this year have achieved freedom of life! It seems that at this moment, Tesla, Inc. has secured the global leader of the new energy vehicle-but half a year later, the NIO, which is almost rubbed underground, is blessed by the Hefei municipal government. All of a sudden, the counterattack is successful!

The battlefield of innovative economy will never have a real end; the king of today, perhaps the beggar of yesterday, is more likely to be the prisoner of tomorrow!

At the end of 2020, the news of "Baidu, Inc. building a car" spread in low intensity, affecting the tense nerves of all parties in the market.

Baidu, Inc., a veteran Internet company in China, was once a "search number one". After years of research and investment, he is now in the first echelon of the world in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). With years of experience and accumulation, his self-driving technology is second to none in China-its self-driving company Apollo has launched self-driving taxi pilot projects in Changsha, Beijing, Guangzhou and other cities.

The unlimited war of an innovative economy is that you never know where the enemy will come from, and the disrupters will always come from other industries. This is the most fascinating and excruciating part of the whole field.As the leader of the industry, your eyes should be focused not only on the second, third and fourth in the industry, but also on a bunch of second, third and fourth in other industries.

It is undeniable that the combination of new energy vehicles and self-driving is the most promising landing scene in the future. So, what does it mean for Tesla, Inc. and the new power of car building (ideal XPeng Inc. and NIO Inc.) when the boss of autopilot starts to build cars?

Capital, technology, experience, cross-border. Many "catfish" have begun to stir the new energy vehicle market, the field has never been calm, new energy vehicles in the second half of the battle, has not been declared war!

1 The first half: tragic

Review the first half of China's new energy vehicle industry, two words to cover it!

Tragic!

Electric cars originated very early. At the beginning of the 19th century, the United States already had a market for electric vehicles and was widely used, but with the breakthrough and development of internal combustion engines and the stagnation of electric vehicle technology, electric vehicles almost disappeared. After the oil crisis in the Middle East in 1973 sounded the alarm of energy shortage, electric vehicles ushered in the second golden era. In 1976, the United States launched a CitiCar electric car with a top speed of 71 kilometers per hour, becoming the top seller of electric vehicles in the United States at that time (below).

In 2008, Tesla, Inc. launched the Roadster two-seater electric sports car, which is the first mass-produced electric sports car in the world. This set off a frenzy in the capital market for new energy vehicles.

At that time, China's new energy vehicles were just beginning to sprout. Under the background of the depletion of international energy and the weak international competitiveness of China's fuel vehicles, China began to launch the "Ten cities and Thousand vehicles" project in 2009; in 2010, the new energy vehicle industry was officially designated as one of the seven strategic emerging industries. brands broke out in the electric car market.

Since 2014, NIO Inc., XPeng Inc., Weima and other new car-building forces have joined the car-building camp and started the research and development, delivery and IPO journey of new energy vehicles. However, due to subsidies, a variety of good and bad car companies, a variety of means and methods to deceive subsidies also began to emerge one after another, the market was once chaotic and disorderly, but also made consumers miserable.

How poor was the quality of new energy vehicles at that time? Dare not turn on the warm wind in winter, dare not turn on the air conditioner in summer, sit in the car either freeze to death or die of heat, but also easily spontaneous combustion.

In this way, however, China's new energy still ushered in the highlight of 2017. NIO Inc., XPeng Inc. and other "new car-building forces" spent a lot of money in exchange for results.They have launched their own new cars this year, throwing off the hat of "PPT car-building". Then in 2018, NIO, XPeng Inc., ideal and other new energy car factories have listed on the US stock market.

The next step is the decline of subsidies and the fall of the floodgates of industry tightening.Since 2019, China's new energy vehicle subsidies have declined, sales have shown negative growth for the first time, and the entire automobile industry is shrinking.

At this time, a large number of new energy vehicle enterprises are short of funds before mass production, and layoffs and bankruptcies abound.Sai LinInstant "sudden death"Baiteng、Bo CountyArrears of wages. EvenNIO Inc.It also suffered the strongest cold spell in history: product recalls, layoffs, asset sales and so on. At that time, it was predicted that NIO Inc. would finish the carrying capacity of people and cars.

In fact, just before Tesla, Inc. entered China in January 2020, the market's attitude towards new energy was always on the sidelines, even turning a blind eye to each other. Especially for those enterprises of new energy cars in China, as soon as Tesla, Inc. came, some people even began to say that domestic new energy cars have been completely defeated.

In fact, it's not just China.At the same time, the voice of doubts about Tesla, Inc. in the global market has never been weaker. Since Tesla, Inc. went public in 2010, a large number of well-known institutions have been shorting him, from the problem of burning money and the risk of mass production, to the turnover of senior executives, the risk of spontaneous combustion, to its poor profit margins and inventory problems. Tesla, Inc. has been at the forefront of the storm.How many years has the game of "shorting Tesla, Inc." been played in the American market?

Schumpeterian economists say that the accumulation and breakthrough of technology depends on burning money and "subversive innovation"; but capital markets believe in a simpler logic-money.

Looking back at the competition for new energy vehicles in the first half, to put it bluntly, money is at work; the government pays for it in the early stage, and the market gives money in the later stage. In short, if you have money, you can continue to play, and if you have no money, you will close the stall and leave.

Since the second quarter of 2020, the explicit or covert compensation for the new energy vehicle industry, which was once almost exhausted, has suddenly returned. So the whole industry, keep the cloud open to see the moon.

2 The wind is coming, the wind has stopped, the wind is rising again

We have reason to speculate about the will of the government behind subsidies from downhill to uphill again.

But the big logic behind it seems even more stark. Technology needs financial support to land, and the money is looking for high-yielding projects. The two always have a tendency to hit it off.

This year, the Chinese government has introduced a number of "structural" stimulus policies on the new energy vehicle industry. Such as the new "double points", cars going to the countryside, and so on, coupled with the continuous introduction of high-quality models such as Tesla, Inc. and the new power of car building, and multi-party resonance, the sales of new energy vehicles rose rapidly in the second half of the year, and the industry tuyere arrived. For a time, new energy vehicles have become the focus of market attention, and the industry's deep reshuffle has also begun to accelerate.

With the development of the new forces of car building, the market competition intensifies again, and the advantage is gradually closer to the head enterprise. Brands such as Boxun, Yangtze River and Zhongtai, which can not keep up with the rapid pace of the industry, have fallen one after another, and brands such as Jianghuai and Zhidou, which once occupied the forefront of the market, now have a market share of less than 1%. In contrast, it is the eye-catching performance of the new power of car building. Tesla, Inc., NIO Inc., ideal, Weima, Hezhong, XPeng Inc. and other sales are all in the top 20 of the industry, and the industry advantages and resources have been tilted towards more high-quality enterprises.

In addition, new energy vehicles have also become a well-deserved "hot cake" in the capital market. Since the beginning of this year, Tesla, Inc. 's market capitalization has exceeded that of the nine major automakers, including Volkswagen, Toyota, Nissan, Hyundai, General Motors Co, Ford, Honda, Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot combined, with shares up more than 700% during the year. The share prices of XPeng Inc., NIO Inc., ideal and other new car-building forces all continue to soar, and their market capitalization far exceeds the domestic traditional automobile leader.

At present, the central government has clearly extended the subsidies for new energy vehicles and purchase subsidies to the end of 2022. With the continuous promotion of policies such as subsidies, taxes and the construction of charging facilities, the medium-and long-term development prospects of new energy vehicles are also bright.

Thick snow, long slope-naturally attracted countless people and enterprises to push snowballs from the top of the slope!

3 The second half: infinite War

In 2020, it seems that Tesla, Inc. and a number of new car-building forces have occupied the pinnacle of the new energy vehicle industry. however, with the technology and capital giants (Alphabet Inc-CL C, Facebook Inc, BABA, Baidu, Inc., etc.) and even the bosses of traditional car companies (VW, Toyota, Renault Nissan, etc.) grinding guns into the market, people need to realize:

The game is just beginning.

At present, the leaders of traditional car companies around the world have launched an onslaught one after another in the face of the arrogance of the new forces of car-building.。

GM, the largest automaker in the United States, recently said it would invest $27 billion in electric and self-driving vehicles by the end of 2025, accounting for more than half of its asset expenditure plans. FAW and Toyota officially launched a strategic cooperation in new energy plants in June this year. In addition, SAIC, Dongfeng, Changan, Guangzhou Automobile and other traditional car companies have also begun to develop high-end smart electric vehicle brands, Zhiji, Lantu, Ian and other new brands gush out.

At the same time, the tech giants have their own strengths on the software side.

HuaweiAlthough it has made it clear that it will not build cars, it aims to become an "Intelligent Networked Automobile incremental parts supplier". It has not only set up a separate intelligent car solution BU, but its vehicle networking solution Hicar has also cooperated with more than 150 models from more than 20 automobiles.AliOn the basis of the reorganization of the zebra network last year, we focused on building a car network "Android" that belongs to China.TencentIt says it will incubate at least 100 innovative companies in the smart cockpit field in the next three years and support 1000 "small scenario" developers to carry out application innovation. Based on this, it is only a matter of time before tech giants enter the market to build new energy vehicles.

In the face of the encirclement and interception of domestic and foreign car companies, Tesla, Inc. has already set his goal on opening up the entire energy ecosystem and developing a new ecology.

This war in the automobile industry is far from over, even if Tesla, Inc. and the new domestic car-making forces are so powerful, they are facing the fate of being overthrown and reshaped at any time. Just like the capital giants headed by BAT at that time, how could they think that today Pinduoduo, Meituan, byte beating and other new forces of the Internet pose such a great threat to themselves? If they are strong, they still have to face great changes overnight, not to mention the new industry of new energy vehicles with unlimited potential.

It has been laid out in the automobile industry for many years.BaiduAt present, it has been for the first technology giant who may build a car himself. Recently, Weimar, Geely, Guangzhou Automobile and FAW are all discussing cooperation plans with it.

At present, new energy vehicles are springing up everywhere, and Baidu, Inc. 's choice to produce his own electric vehicles is an important layout in the automotive field. Baidu, Inc. has made a lot of achievements in the two major fields of self-driving and vehicle networking since 2003. The Apollo project is now the world's largest self-driving open platform and urban intelligent transportation operator, intelligent vehicle services have also formed an independent ecology, and the number of cooperative car companies is ahead of time. On this basis, Baidu, Inc. personally off the stage to build a car, what does it mean for the whole new car industry pattern?

4 Conclusion

At present, car building is a borderless industry game. It is no longer as strict as the traditional car-building industry, demanding on qualifications, capital and resources, but players are actively pouring in, relying on technology and innovation to fight.

In 2021, car building will usher in the second half. The industry is bound to usher in more variables, fresh blood and leadership may not be the current new forces of car building, but may be technology-led technology giants or even new forces or cross-industry looters that have not yet emerged.

If "the first half of building a car" is about burning money, subsidy, technology, and endurance, then the second half of building a car is about capital, crossing boundaries, ecology, and pattern.Car-building is an endless war, there will never be an end, and there will never be a permanent winner.