Us Stock Intelligence Agent | Eli, Melody
This article summarizes the latest large order changes in the option market for you.
By monitoring these market data, investors can use this often neglected information and formulate investment strategies.
The job market is expected to increase by 440000 on Friday, with an actual increase of 245000. But the market seems to be immune to closed employment data, which is bad news for the macro, but it seems to be good news for the market. because the market data may have reached a higher overall expectation for a new round of stimulus policies. SoS & P 500 ETF-SPDR (SPY.US) $, $PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ.US) $The expected volatility for next week is higher as a whole; the expected volatility of SPY is between 377.03 and 362.67, and last Friday's closing price was close to the position along the 370.09 of the expected volatility, where there may be a possibility of a peak pullback, but the overall bottom is still rising, so the market may move higher next week. Similarly, QQQ is expected to fluctuate between 312.95 and 298.09. Friday's closing price was just around 305, and despite immediate resistance, it is still possible to move higher. At present, the short-term risk point of the market still lies in the outcome of the Fed's interest rate policy on the 15th-16th.
Through the interception of the two major ETF Top OI, the PUT of the head position is concentrated at 12 PUT 18, but both sides are mainly traded with mid (compromise price). So the PUT holding large orders here is not in the mood to take the initiative to buy, and the transaction form of these PUT can be used as the first reference for us to understand hedge protection (rather than panic shorting).
From left to right: VXX,GLD,TLT
Secondly, the target of our risk aversionIPATH S & P 500 VIX short-term futures ETN (VXX.US) $, $iShares Anshuo 20-year Treasurys (TLT.US) $Option pricing (30d ATM IV) and trading volume (Opt Volume) are not at an all-time high compared to the past 52 weeks (with the exception of GLD, where some of the anomalies in GLD come from the resonance effect of the base material plate in the previous two weeks). So the data here tells us that most investors in the market have not reached a certain degree of panic, that is, "everyone is not necessarily running for the door". Here is the second reference for us to understand that the market PUT is based on hedging and protection.
To sum up, @ Sister Hua's point of view speculated that the December market is still a little less interesting than the pullback.
Changes in ETF options in the market on December 4th
Trading volume in the options market reached 38.6 million contracts on Wednesday, 14% higher than the previous average, with subscriptions slightly higher than the sell volume (19:10). The volume of ETF and individual stocks is relatively high, while the flow of futures index products is moderate.
Changes in individual stock options in various sectors on December 4
The most active plates include$The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC.US) $communication,High-tech index ETF-SPDR (XLK.US) $，Energy Index ETF-SPDR (XLE.US) $$而Public Utilities Index ETF-SPDR (XLU.US) $(hedge plate) andConsumer goods Index ETF-SPDR optional Consumer goods (XLY.US) $Trading volume is relatively calm.
Of the 3649 stocks with only listed options, 2839 (78 per cent) closed up and 636 (17 per cent) closed down. Among the 500 stocks with the highest liquidity, 203 have higher implied volatility and 263 have lower implied volatility on the 30th. The stocks with obvious changes in the trading of probe options on Friday are:$FASTLY INC (FSLY.US) $, $Micron Technology Inc (MU.US) $, $Zynga (ZNGA.US) $, $Snowflake Inc (SNOW.US) $和$Salesforce.com Inc (CRM.US) $。
Science and technology stock
Industrial stock
Cyclical consumer stock
Financial stocks
Communications Unit
Medical and Health Unit
Energy stocks
Real estate stock
Building Materials Unit
Defensive consumer stock
Public utilities unit
The option tool is flexible and easy to use, and it is considered to be the most perfect trading tool in the financial market so far. small funds can quickly accumulate wealth through accurate judgment using non-linear leverage. large funds can achieve stable returns through the comprehensive application of multiple strategies across bull-bear and shock markets. But we also need to see the buyer's risk of options (ordinary investors are careful to be sellers of options, with limited returns and unlimited losses):
1. Nonlinear huge leverage will suffer huge losses if it is faced with going in the wrong direction.
2. Volatility drops, and the other side may lose money.
3. The state of mind is easy to be out of balance with big fluctuations.
4. Time is the enemy of option buyer.
5. Stock thinking is serious. Stock thinking is just want to do long, will not short, fall more want to bottom, trap, ignore and so on rebound, and even some people add positions to lower costs, the result is deeper and deeper to zero. If you don't change your mind, it's dangerous to make options.