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中央再次定调楼市,时刻绷紧调控这根弦,释放什么信号?不断完善政策工具箱,这一表态有何深意?

The central government once again sets the tone for the property market, tightening the regulation string all the time. What signal is it sending? Continuously improving the policy toolbox, what is the meaning of this statement?

券商中国 ·  Dec 4, 2020 00:14  · Insights

01.pngNiuniu knocked on the blackboard:

  • We will unswervingly implement the long-term mechanism of real estate, plan the housing work during the 14th five-year Plan period, strengthen the construction of the housing security system, and effectively expand the supply of indemnificatory rental housing.

  • Make it clear that the short-term market regulation will not be relaxed.

  • We will strengthen the housing security system in the medium term.

The latest tone of real estate regulation and control is coming!

On December 3, Han, member of the standing Committee of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, held a forum at the Ministry of Housing and Construction. He stressed: it is necessary to thoroughly study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech and instructions, implement the spirit of the Fifth Plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee, unswervingly implement the long-term mechanism for real estate, and plan well the housing work during the 14th five-year Plan period. we will strengthen the construction of the housing security system and effectively expand the supply of indemnificatory rental housing.

What is the signal significance of this meeting? What are the important contents of Han Zheng's speech? What policy intentions are conveyed? Let's take a look at the key interpretation:

Make it clear that the short-term market regulation will not be relaxed.

On December 3, Han, member of the standing Committee of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, held a forum at the Ministry of Housing and Construction. He stressed: it is necessary to thoroughly study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech and instructions, implement the spirit of the Fifth Plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee, unswervingly implement the long-term mechanism for real estate, and plan well the housing work during the 14th five-year Plan period. we will strengthen the construction of the housing security system and effectively expand the supply of indemnificatory rental housing.

Han Zheng said: since the implementation of the long-term mechanism of real estate, various departments in various localities have conscientiously implemented the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, closely centering on the regulation and control goals of stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, and stabilizing expectations, and adhered to the policy of "one city, one city". We have consolidated the main responsibility of the city, strengthened the financial regulation and control of real estate, and achieved remarkable results in real estate work. We should firmly adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living and not for speculation, do not use real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term, always tighten the string of regulation and control of the real estate market, and constantly improve the policy toolbox from reality. We will promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.

In this regard, Yang Hongxu, vice president of the Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, said in an interview with a brokerage Chinese reporter of the Securities Times that this node held a real estate forum, mainly because the contents of real estate were mentioned in the Fifth Plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee and the 14th five-year Plan. This meeting is to implement the spirit of the Fifth Plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee and to emphasize and reaffirm the real estate policies during the 14th five-year Plan period. Including regulation and control policies and housing security.

"among them, the real estate regulation and control policy to further set the tone, such as' housing speculation', short-term not stimulating, regulation and control of this string should be tight, which means that in the short term, the policy is not loose. Yang Hongxu told the Securities Times brokerage China reporter.

It is worth noting that Han Zheng also proposed to constantly improve the policy toolbox from reality.

In this regard, Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said in an interview with a Chinese reporter from a securities firm of the Securities Times that he proposed to improve the policy toolbox, that is to say, it is necessary to sum up some measures taken by the government. Under what circumstances, what measures can not only stabilize the market and control expectations, but also ensure the stability of transaction volume and prices, and then prevent house prices from rising? this requirement is still relatively high. This requires the government to have a superb art of regulation and control.

On November 3, Xinhua News Agency formally released the "proposal of the CPC Central Committee on the formulation of the 14th five-year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the long-term goal of 2035". The expression on the regulation and control of real estate is: adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, rent and purchase at the same time, implement policies based on the city, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. We will effectively increase the supply of indemnificatory housing, improve the income distribution mechanism for the transfer of land, explore ways to support the use of collective construction land to build rental housing according to planning, improve the policy of long-term rental housing, and expand the supply of indemnificatory rental housing.

On November 17, Wang Menghui, Minister of Housing and Construction, wrote an article to interpret the "implementation of Urban Renewal Action" put forward in the proposal of the 14th five-year Plan and the long-term goals of 2035, which mentioned the safe implementation of the long-term mechanism of real estate. Implement urban policies, implement urban principal responsibility, improve policy coordination mechanism, provincial, provincial and municipal linkage mechanism, monitoring and early warning mechanism, market supervision mechanism and public opinion guidance mechanism, and establish a prudent management system of real estate finance. we will comprehensively carry out the evaluation and assessment of the regulation and assessment of the real estate market, strive to stabilize land prices, stabilize housing prices and expectations, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

Strengthen the housing security system in the medium term

Han Zheng also proposed at the meeting that it is necessary to strengthen the top-level design of housing development during the 14th five-year Plan period, study the two systems of housing market and housing security, and give better play to the guiding role of planning. We will improve relevant laws and policies, strengthen daily supervision, and promote the healthy development of the housing rental market.

Han Zheng stressed that it is necessary to take indemnificatory rental housing as the focus, improve the basic system and support policies, and strengthen the construction of the housing security system. It is necessary to properly handle the relationship between basic security and non-basic security, do our best, act according to our capacity, and strive to solve the housing problems of poor groups and new citizens. To properly handle the relationship between the government and the market, we should not only strengthen the role of government security, but also actively use market-oriented means. It is necessary to properly handle the relationship between the central and local governments, persist in not engaging in an across-the-board approach, encourage and guide the city government to adjust measures to local conditions, improve housing security methods, and properly implement the main responsibility of the city.

In this regard, Yang Hongxu told the Securities Times brokerage Chinese reporter that the medium-term is the construction of the housing system, to achieve the organic combination of security and marketization. As a vice premier in charge of real estate, he went to the Ministry of Housing and Construction to hold such a forum to further convey to the outside world that the central government is very concerned about the real estate market, regulation and control policies and housing security. "he said.

Li Yujia also believes that the meeting focuses on housing security. In order to solve the housing security of low-income people and the housing needs of new citizens, including talent housing, Han Zheng proposed to properly handle the relationship between security and non-security, that is to say, the government should cover the bottom of housing, and financial money should be spent, while talent housing should still take a market-oriented path, not financial money. It is more important to give full play to the role of the market to supply commercial housing. In addition to guaranteed housing, indemnificatory rental housing is mentioned.

Previously, when Wang Menghui wrote an article to interpret the "implementation of Urban Renewal Action" put forward in the 14th five-year Plan and the long-term goal of 2035, he mentioned improving the housing security system, speeding up the construction of a housing security system with public rental housing, indemnificatory rental housing, and co-ownership housing as the main body, and effectively increasing the supply of indemnificatory housing in combination with the transformation of urban shantytowns and old residential areas. In order to solve the housing difficulties of new citizens, we should vigorously develop rental housing, improve the policy of long-term rental housing, expand the supply of indemnificatory rental housing with small households and low rent, and explore and support the use of collective construction land to build rental housing in accordance with the plan.

"playing new" is popular in Shenzhen, Shanghai and other places.

Recently, the property market in some cities has become hot, and some "Internet celebrities" have even appeared the phenomenon of "ten thousand people robbing houses" and "crowdfunding to fight for the new". In particular, in the first phase of the new China Resources Seal of Shenzhen Internet celebrities, thousands of houses, 10,000 people, and 2 days were all wound up, with a total price of 20 million. Behind the hot sales is the phenomenon of "rigid demand", which aroused widespread concern in the market.

Industry insiders pointed out that the reason for the popularity of "playing new" in Shenzhen is related to the price limit policy. The price limit of new housing leads to upside down with the price of second-hand housing, creating a wealth effect of "pie in the sky". So that many people do not have "room tickets" to spend money to buy "room tickets" for others to hold first, and there are also buyers who sell their houses to "hit the new". Take the embellish seal of Huarun City in Shenzhen as an example, the average price of the new market is about 132000 / yuan, while the average price of second-hand housing in the surrounding Huarun City is more than 180000, with a price difference of 40, 000-50, 000, which means that if you shake it, you can earn at least 5 million. The huge "price difference" between the new housing market and the surrounding second-hand housing market is the fundamental reason for the existence of this kind of new heat.

In response to the situation of housing speculation on behalf of the first phase of the China Resources Seal project in Shenzhen, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau said that the competent government departments attach great importance to it and are investigating and dealing with it. Once violations are found, they will be seriously dealt with in accordance with the law. In view of the current upside-down prices of first-and second-hand housing and property speculation reflected by the media, government departments are studying comprehensive regulation and control policies to resolutely crack down on market speculation.

The latest data from KE Holdings Inc. Research Institute show that after the "715" New deal in Shenzhen, there is a "729" New deal to supplement the overall regulation and control, while the new housing in the process of curbing the rapid rise in housing prices, stimulate the main force of rigid demand customers to enter the market, the market is more hot. From January to November, a total of 39222 new housing units were sold in Shenzhen, covering an area of 3.9 million square meters, an increase of 22.2% over the same period last year.

Not only in Shenzhen, but also in Shanghai, the recent new housing market is not abating. According to media statistics, by the end of October, there have been 12 thousand people lottery for first-hand housing sales in Shanghai this year, and 65 projects with an approval rate of more than 100%. The "Thousand people Yaw" project in November is the Renheng Beautiful Century of Zhoukang Plate in Pudong. It has the largest volume of entry into the market, with a supply of about 38000 yuan, an average record price of 66000 yuan per million, and an actual effective subscription rate of 1077 groups. The recognition rate was 317%, the highest in the month.

Guan Qingyou, director of the Institute of Finance and chief economist, said in a Weitiao post on December 3 that his colleagues' personal experience of buying a house in Shanghai this year: the lottery, from summer to winter, finally reached the fifth time, and when it was his turn to choose, there were only three sets left, so he dared not pick the second floor. Although he has to pay the down payment in three days, he thinks he is very lucky. You know, what he bought is the first day CD in Shanghai in December, outside the outer ring, the average price is 6.6w, and the approval rate is as high as 518%, which means that more than five people are fighting for a house, and the competition is fierce.

In sharp contrast, the opening price of the first issue at the beginning of the year averaged 6.1w, with a subscription rate of only 19%. It can be seen that not only Shenzhen, but also Shanghai's new houses are really popular, mainly because the price inversion is too serious, and there are high taxes and fees. According to him, he took a fancy to the second-hand housing a few days ago, and the landlord bought it around 100w in 2010, and now he has to list 690w. He has to pay more than 30w VAT, plus commission and deed tax, which will add almost 10% of the cost, so innovation has become a forced and relatively wise choice.

In addition, the new housing market in many second-tier cities has remained hot since the beginning of this year. According to the latest data from KE Holdings Inc. Research Institute, the cumulative transaction area of Chengdu, Nanjing, Dongguan, Xiamen and Yangzhou increased by more than 10% from January to November, and the market remained hot. Among them, Dongguan and Xiamen grew faster, more than 20% and 40% respectively. Although the regulation and control in Dongguan has been upgraded, the supply side continues to concentrate on pushing the market in November, driving the growth rate of trading volume to rise rapidly. The transaction area of commercial housing in Xiamen increased by 38% and 187% respectively in November compared with the same period last year, and is expected to remain high by the end of the year.

Edit / IrisW

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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