Recently, a large number of test videos about the local FSD beta version in the United States have spread on the Internet. I believe that friends who have seen the video will shout "Tesla, Inc. Niu X" and "autopilot is really coming"!

Compared with other car companies, what is the advantage of Tesla, Inc. 's autopilot? How will the software charge be realized in the future?Today, with the details of the FSD beta test, Electric Planet would like to talk to you.

1. FSD beta + DojoIs fully autopilot within reach?

First,Fully autopilotFSD BetaThe version is Tesla, Inc. 's original FSD this year.Infrastructure rewriting, including the entire code base, label software, especially after the introduction of time variables to complete visual image processing 4DModeling, realizing the simulation of the working principle of lidar.(forming ranging capability). Compared to previous versions, FSD beta has undergone a disruptive change.

Based on the FSD beta's focus on urban road autopilot, Musk said on July 22nd that "I am confident that full autopilot will be launched at the end of the year."

FSD beta is currently only a small-scale push to American Tesla, Inc. car owners, and domestic fans can't experience it for the time being. Here is a quote from six lecture videos shot by a Chinese blogger Vincent:

1）Residential autopilot to the shopping mall；

2）Residential autopilot to seaside restaurant；

3）Test one-way streets, detect blind spots, congested roads；

4）Autopilot up and down the highway；

5）Conversion of FSD to NoA at night；

6）The parking environment starts autopilot.。

Watching the whole series of tests, we thought of several adjectives "zero intervention", "slippery" and "the smell of an old driver", Tesla, Inc. FSD betaThe driving logic is almost as smooth as if someone was driving.Han Lu, a media man who sprayed Model 3 engineers who did not work before, did not know how to react.

The improvement of FSD beta is undoubtedly a huge leap, the degree of functional perfection and intelligence have been greatly improved (such as turning at the intersection, timing of confluence, comity to pedestrians, etc.). The system can visually identify all the elements on the road without even relying on high-precision maps and lidar, realizing Musk's arrogance of refusing to use lidar. At present, NIO Inc. NOP and XPeng Inc. NGP both rely on Gaojing map for path planning, and do not support urban road autopilot.

Perhaps in the near future, the visual identification route upheld by Tesla, Inc. FSD beta will be applicable to road conditions in various countries and regions around the world, but the new power will be subject to limited high-precision map coverage.

In addition, along with FSD beta push, Tesla, Inc. also enabled the supercomputer "Dojo" (calculation power 1 Exaflop, that is, 10 billion times per second).。

"Dojo" is Japanese, which refers to the ashram where martial arts are practiced. At present, Tesla, Inc. car owner volunteers can upload the wrong driving scene to Dojo,Dojo during the FSD beta test, optimize the problem through the neural network algorithm, and send the optimization scheme OTA back to all car owners to avoid similar errors next time. Recently, Tesla, Inc. is speeding up the iteration and optimizing FSD beta, striving for a large-scale push to car owners in two weeks' time.

With FSD beta + DojoCombination, many investors are very optimistic about Tesla, Inc. in 2020At the end of the year, fully autopilot will be realized, and at the same time, the closed loop of training data in the car and in the cloud will be opened.

Second, how will Tesla, Inc. realize the software charge?

Having witnessed great technological progress, I believe that most people will once again strengthen their expectations--If there is any enterprise that can achieve full autopilot, it must be Musk's Tesla, Inc..。

The share prices of Tesla, Inc. and NIO Inc. have soared this year, on the grounds that people are optimistic that electric car companies will shift from selling traditional hardware to charging for software such as self-driving (analogy Apple Inc).

The whole market is saying that Tesla, Inc. will make money through software, how to make money?

First of all, Tesla, Inc. 's business layout is more and more similar to Apple Inc's:

1) OTA upgrade fee service alignment Apple Inc APP store (OTA option with similar charging software or function)

2) charging service, standard Apple TV+, etc. (monthly payment for advanced service of vehicle / mobile phone)

3) Warranty service alignment Applecare (revenue from providing warranty service for vehicles / mobile phones).

Secondly, can financial data support the logic of Tesla, Inc. 's software to make money?

Fully autopilot FSD is the core of Tesla, Inc. 's software service and can be purchased or delivered, starting at $10000. According to official standards, FSD purchases accounted for about 20 per cent of Tesla, Inc. 's new car sales in 2019 (major US users).

As of 2020Q3, Tesla, Inc. confirmed deferred revenue of $2.49 billion for the sale of FSD, a high proportion relative to Q3 revenue of 8.77 billion. Deferred revenue will be counted into revenue step by step with the push of FSD detailed functions, so it is expected that 2020Q4 will recognize a larger portion of it after the large-scale launch of FSD beta at the end of this year, resulting in a significant increase in profits.

In 2020, hardware accounted for about 80% of Apple Inc's revenue, contributing 60% of gross profit, while software accounted for about 20% of revenue, but contributed 40% of gross profit. In the long run, with the continuous evolution of Tesla, Inc. 's autopilot technology and the expansion of stock users, the purchase rate of FSD will continue to increase.

Many investors will question Model 3Rely entirely on price cuts to stimulate sales, but may ignore its purpose-- continuously reduce the cost of hardware purchase, and train users to use autopilot as much as possible, so as to eventually expand and strengthen the software business.。

It is now widely expected that if the optimized version of fully autopilot FSD beta is launched on a large scale by the end of the year, Tesla, Inc. may cancel the one-time purchase method and switch to a subscription strategy next year, such as a price of $100 per month. (Musk confirmed in September that he planned to launch a FSD subscription system by the end of this year.)

Assuming that Tesla, Inc. occupies a 20 per cent share of the global new energy vehicle market in the future, it is expected that 800000, 1.3 million, 2 million, 2.8 million and 3.5 million new vehicles will be sold from 2021 to 2025 respectively (corresponding to an average annual compound growth rate of 45 per cent).

Then according to the 2025 new car sales owner subscription rate of 30% + historical stock user subscription rate of 10%, that is, up to 1.82 million FSD subscriptions, accounting for 50% of new car sales that year.

From the perspective of the cash path, Tesla, Inc. is actually very much like a platform Internet enterprise:In the early stage, we will continue to expand production capacity, reduce prices to stimulate sales, and continue to obtain traffic entrances, and then improve software services to obtain revenue. The autopilot algorithm needs a lot of data for training and optimization. The more people use it, the easier it is to use. The more people use it, the more people use it. The golden rule of the Internet is also applicable to autopilot.

So on the whole, the promotion logic of Tesla, Inc. 's software business volume will be very similar to Apple Inc's, 3-5 in the future.Depending on the rapid growth of stock users every year, it will be natural to achieve a business model similar to that of Apple Inc and profitability (software service contribution 4Cheng Maori, 40% of replication technology enterprisesGross margin).