Today (November 30), nothing attracts more attention from the capital market than the performance of the banking sector!

In the morning, the banking sector broke out, but suddenly dived in the afternoon, staging a "half-day tour" market.

This makes many people "confused".Standing at the moment, what is the catalyst for the banking sector? Can the market of bank stocks be sustainable? What's the next risk?

For the above hot issues, a number of private equity firms have expressed their latest views.

It is worth noting that, in the view of these institutions, there are differences on the next market of bank stocks.

In addition, some institutions warn that once valuations in the pharmaceutical, consumer and technology sectors become reasonable, some of the money will still return to these well-growing sectors.

Bank stocks staged a "half-day tour" market

Following the overall rise of the banking sector on Friday, today, there continues to be an upward momentum!

In the morning, big financial sectors such as Hong Kong stocks or A-shares, banks and so on broke out.

However, affected by the overall correction of the market, as of the afternoon close, the financial sector market has fallen.

For the recent surge in bank stocksYuan Jie, Manager of Qianming Asset Management FundAccording to the analysis, the main logic of the rise in bank stocks is as follows:

first,FundamentalsOn the one hand, interest spreads are the main source of income for banks. With the steady recovery of the economy and the gradual rebound of interest rates on treasury bonds, the market expects that bank interest rates will enter the upward cycle next year, which will lead to the increase of bank interest margin income and the repair of income statements; at the same time, the asset quality of banks may also be positively improved as the economy recovers, and the bad debt rate may be better than the market expected.

Second,ValuationOn the other hand, valuations in the banking sector are currently at historically low levels. As far as A-shares are concerned, the current PB=0.74 valuation is only higher than 7.37 per cent in history, while the overall ROE of the sector as a whole is still 9.69 per cent, which means that if the valuation of the banking sector remains low next year, the stock price will most likely earn about 5-9 per cent on the basis of improved performance alone.

"although the growth is poor, it is very defensive, which is an ideal target for some investment institutions with low risk preference. "Yuan Jie added.

Liu Youhua, senior researcher of private placement networkIt is considered that the strength of bank stocks is the result of the superposition of many factors. Among them, he mentioned that in the current institutional positions, the phenomenon of huddling in pharmaceutical science and technology consumption is relatively serious, transactions are crowded, valuations are high, while the allocation of bank stocks is relatively low, and funds tend to be transferred to bank stocks. Institutions are also stepping up their research on bank stocks.

In addition, inXiao Chao, manager of Baodi investment fundIt seems that another reason for the surge in banks is that in the fourth quarter of each year, under the influence of performance rankings and the second year's layout adjustment, bank stocks are favored by market funds in stages because of low valuations.

Can the bank market last? There are great differences in private placement

It is worth noting that a number of private equity firms have divergent views on the next investment opportunities for bank stocks.

Liu Youhua, a researcher of Private Placement Network."We are optimistic about the next performance of banking stocks, which have more room for stock price improvement under the Davis double-click potential of upward valuation center and improved performance," he said. ".

However, in the view of many private equity firms, they are more cautious about the next market of the banks.

Yuan Jie, Manager of Qianming Asset Management Fund"I think the current big financial market represented by banks comes more from the repair of low valuations and the rotation of the plate, and the fundamental policy suppression of the financial industry to benefit industries will continue to exist for a long time," he said.Once valuations in the pharmaceutical, consumer and technology sectors tend to be reasonable, some of the money will still return to these growing sectors.. "

Baodi invests in Xiao Chao"I personally think that this round of rise is a valuation repair market supported by fundamentals, but expectations should not be too high, after all, the size of the banks is also very large, has already passed the stage of rapid growth and is in a stage of steady growth," he said. How long the big financial market represented by banks lasts is determined by the market.Personally, I think the big financial market performed well in the fourth quarter, and it will be difficult to have such a good performance in the first quarter of next year."

In additionYuan Jie, Manager of Qianming Asset Management FundSaid that at present, there is an obvious plate rotation and style shift in the market, and the banking and insurance sectors in the "four tragedies" have been started. undervalued sectors such as real estate, infrastructure and public utilities, which belong to the same "four tragedies", are expected to usher in a wave of valuation repair. However, it should be noted that these sectors may be suppressed by policies or have weak growth.Therefore, it will be more phased market.

Photo: top 10 domestic bank stocks by market capitalization