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梁乾东:黄金反弹无力空为主 原油多空胶着操作策略

新浪财经 ·  Nov 30, 2020 16:33

Gold Midday Market Analysis On November 30th, news: last week, spot gold fell below its important support level of $1800, hitting a new low since July 7th at $1774, closing down 4.45% at $1787.50/ounce, also creating the largest weekly bearish trend since September 25th. The liquidity sparse caused by Thanksgiving holiday enlarged the market volatility. The market's optimistic sentiment towards a smooth transition in the White House is increasing, and the overall outlook for vaccine development remains good, which has pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to historically break through the 30,000 point mark and the Nasdaq Composite Index to refresh its record high, further suppressing the gold price. However, the effectiveness of the AstraZeneca vaccine has been questioned, the Federal Reserve hints at strengthening QE, and the initial jobless claims in the United States continue to rise, leading to a weakened US dollar and limiting the downward pressure on precious metals. Analysts said: "Because we are optimistic about the development of vaccines, we see improvement in the willingness to take risks, which is a resistance for gold, but as the US dollar continues to weaken, the gold price will still have some support."

Technical Analysis of Gold in the Midday: Gold broke below the support level of $1800 directly on the hourly candlestick chart, and there is no doubt that the trend is dominant of the bears. The Bollinger Bands are obviously tilted downwards, and the opening is directly vertical downwards. At the same time, the candlestick directly falls freely and is currently maintaining a low-level decline. For the downside support, pay attention to the hourly Bollinger Bands' lower track near $1772, and the key $1770 support level. Breaking below will open up the downward space. For the upside resistance, pay attention to the hourly Bollinger Bands' near the middle rail of $1800, followed by the upper rail of $1798 near the hourly Bollinger Bands. Currently, the international gold is running down around the hourly Bollinger Bands. Overall, the short-term strategy for today is recommended to be mainly short on rebounds, supplemented by long on dips, and the short-term upside is focused on the $1795-1800 resistance range and the short-term downside is focused on the $1765-1770 support range.

Crude Oil Midday Market Analysis News: International oil prices rose sharply by about 7% this week, with a four-week consecutive increase, reaching a high level since early March. The overall outlook for the vaccine is good, which has stimulated hopes for a rapid recovery in oil demand. Unexpectedly, US crude oil inventories decreased, the US government began an orderly handover, and OPEC+ is expected to discuss delaying the production increase plan, which has strengthened this expectation. Sources said that despite the rise in oil prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, including Russia, are still inclined to postpone next year's plan to increase oil production to support the market during the second wave of the new crown epidemic and the period of rising Libyan production. Libya is not bound by the production reduction plan, and its output has increased by more than 1.1 million barrels per day since early September. Barclays continues to maintain its oil price forecast for 2021 above the general consensus, predicting that the average price of ICE Brent crude oil is $53 per barrel, based on the production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies and the emergence of the new crown vaccine may increase oil demand in the second half of next year.

Technical Analysis of Crude Oil in the Midday: From the daily chart structure, the main trend remains bullish, and the acceleration stage after breaking through. However, after continuous heavy volume on the hourly chart, a triple high of the local wave appeared. If this wave of upward movement is treated as a wave-like upward, it is currently at the tail end of this sub-wave upward trend. Usually, after a triple high, the bullish momentum of the small cycle will slow down and will be accompanied by a certain amount of correction before re-gaining upward momentum. Currently, it is in this local slow rise and pressurization, and the rebound is not sufficient. With every new high, there will be a long period of consolidation and correction, crude oil continued to rise yesterday, slowly rising to pressure, consolidating and storing energy during the American session, and finally breaking through to $46.20 high. The daily K-line continued its uptrend after breaking through the previous high point of 43.73. Overall, the short-term strategy for today is recommended to be mainly long on dips, supplemented by short on rebounds, and the short-term upside is focused on the $46.5-47 resistance range, while the short-term downside is focused on the $43.5-44 support range.

News: International oil prices rose sharply by about 7% this week, with four consecutive weekly gains, hitting a high not seen since early March. Overall, the prospect of vaccines has improved, which has sparked hopes of a rapid recovery in oil demand. Unexpectedly, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, and the U.S. government has begun a smooth transition of power. OPEC+ is expected to discuss delaying production increases, reinforcing this expectation. Sources say that although oil prices have risen, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, are still inclined to postpone next year's oil production plans to support the market during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising Libyan production. Libya is not subject to production cuts and its output has increased by more than 1.1 million barrels per day since early September. Barclays continues to maintain its oil price forecast for 2021 that is higher than the general estimate, predicting an average ICE Brent crude oil price of $53 per barrel. This is based on production cuts by OPEC and its allies, and the possible availability of COVID-19 vaccines that could boost oil demand in the second half of next year.

Technical Analysis of Gold in the Midday: Gold broke below the support level of $1800 directly on the hourly candlestick chart, and there is no doubt that the trend is dominant of the bears. The Bollinger Bands are obviously tilted downwards, and the opening is directly vertical downwards. At the same time, the candlestick directly falls freely and is currently maintaining a low-level decline. For the downside support, pay attention to the hourly Bollinger Bands' lower track near $1772, and the key $1770 support level. Breaking below will open up the downward space. For the upside resistance, pay attention to the hourly Bollinger Bands' near the middle rail of $1800, followed by the upper rail of $1798 near the hourly Bollinger Bands. Currently, the international gold is running down around the hourly Bollinger Bands. Overall, the short-term strategy for today is recommended to be mainly short on rebounds, supplemented by long on dips, and the short-term upside is focused on the $1795-1800 resistance range and the short-term downside is focused on the $1765-1770 support range.

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