The main line of the market continues to focus on pro-cyclical, yesterday, coal non-ferrous cycle stock volume rose sharply, resource graded funds, trading index funds (ETF) prices rose sharply.
A number of fund industry insiders said that in the medium term, in the context of the global economic recovery, more pro-cyclical industries show investment opportunities to maintain the main line of pro-cyclical allocation.
Resource classification B and ETF have risen sharply.
On November 23, the pro-cyclical plate was strong. Benefiting from this, the price of resource graded B fund soared or even rose by the limit, while the price of resource ETF soared synchronously. By the end of the day, the B share of three coal classification funds, such as coal B, coal B base and coal B grade, had risen by the daily limit, with a turnover of 1.7905 million, 1.2752 million and 28.0807 million respectively. In addition, steel B rose 8.42%, while non-ferrous B and resource B rose 6.19% and 5.99% respectively.
In terms of ETF, the price of coal ETF rose 5.83%, the energy ETF of the Guangdong Development Fund rose 4.47%, and the resource ETF, energy ETF and raw material ETF of the Huitianfu Fund all rose by more than 3%.
Since November, the pro-cyclical plate has risen significantly, with the index of non-ferrous metals, iron and steel, home appliances, mining and other sectors up more than 10%.
Benefiting from the strength of pro-cyclical plates, the net worth of related funds rose sharply. A number of non-ferrous and resource index funds have risen more than 15% since November, with the highest increase of more than 20%. Citic Prudential CSC 800 Nonferrous rose 22.75% to lead resource funds, while Cathay Pacific Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry, Southern CSC Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF and UBS upstream funds all rose more than 15%. In addition, the active partial stock funds of redistributed resource stocks such as Oriental pillar industry, Morgan Stanley enterprising optimization, Chinese businessmen's new trend optimization, and Warburg resources optimization have also risen quite prominently so far this month.
With regard to the core logic of the strong performance of the pro-cyclical plate, Yang Xiaobin, manager of the Golden Eagle Industrial Integration Fund, said that the epidemic has eased, the US presidential election has landed, expectations of economic recovery at home and abroad have improved, and investment risk appetite has increased. As the recovery of economic fundamentals continues, the pro-cyclical sector market with more adjustments in the first half of the year will also continue.
"the core logic reflected by 'pro-cyclical', 'counter-cyclical' and 'weak cyclical' is whether it is beneficial or damaged in the whole process of macroeconomic improvement. Of course, few industries will suffer from a macroeconomic recovery, but investors will certainly choose those areas that benefit most directly. " Yang Xiaobin said.
The Wells Fargo Fund believes that cyclical stocks need to meet one of the conditions to start a big market: first, a substantial improvement in demand; second, a sharp contraction in supply; third, extremely loose liquidity. At present, global liquidity remains loose but marginal slows; the overseas supply side has contracted to a certain extent due to the repeated effects of the epidemic, but with the landing of the vaccine, the supply-side constraints will be gradually eliminated; the improvement in demand under economic recovery is the core driving force, significant progress has been made in superimposed vaccines, economic recovery is expected to strengthen, and the logic of periodic product valuation and repair will also be strengthened.
Debang Fund-related sources said, "the domestic economy gradually recovered in the second and third quarters, and some pro-cyclical industries showed better performance flexibility." In December, pro-cyclical sectors, low valuations, ROE stable varieties may have better earnings. "
Pro-cyclical logic may continue to
Global economic recovery is complete.
Will there be a switch in market style? How much room for performance is there in the pro-cyclical plate?
Baoying Fund said that the current market interpretation is "from liquidity-driven to fundamental-driven" logic. In the first quarter of next year, the valuation performance-to-price ratio will be a factor of market consideration, in such an environment, the industry configuration not only depends on the boom, but also needs to look at the valuation. In the medium term, in the context of the gradual recovery of the global economy, China's exports continue to pick up, helping China's economy to continue to pick up, A-share earnings are still in the process of accelerating upward. The recovery of the economy has led to more obvious investment opportunities in more pro-cyclical industries, such as the superposition of "export chain" and "real estate post-cycle", such as household appliances, light industry, auto parts, and commodities, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, coal, and financial real estate.
In Yang Xiaobin's view, the follow-up development of the pro-cyclical plate needs to pay attention to the fading of the impact of the epidemic at home and abroad, the economic recovery at home and abroad, and the withdrawal pace of regulatory policies. At present, the domestic and foreign economy has not yet returned to the pre-epidemic level, vaccine research and production and large-scale vaccination still take time, it is difficult to significantly tighten the policy. On this basis, pro-cyclical logic will continue until the end of the global economic recovery, probably for about half a year.
The Jingshun Great Wall Foundation research team believes that the increased probability of overseas vaccine landing has further boosted expectations of global growth recovery, especially in industries and sectors that have been damaged by the epidemic. Based on this, maintain a pro-cyclical configuration mainline. A boost in risk appetite and a recovery in economic fundamentals will be good for stocks that benefit from upward resonance, including cars, home appliances and some traditional industries with lower valuations. In addition, under the expectation of the vaccine, the gap between contact and non-contact industries will narrow, and sectors that have been heavily affected by the epidemic, such as aviation and tourism, are expected to perform in the short term.
