Since November, international oil prices have periodically bottomed out and rebounded, with a cumulative increase of more than 10%. Thanks to this, the crude oil-themed qualified domestic institutional investor (QDII) fund has led the recent gains. However, the huge losses caused by the April oil price avalanche will be difficult to recover in the short term.
Industry insiders believe that due to multiple factors, the future upward trend of oil prices may lag behind the speed of economic recovery.
Crude oil-themed QDII fund led the rise
It will take time to fully recover the lost land.
Data show that in November, international oil prices have periodically bottomed out and rebounded, with a cumulative increase of more than 10%. Among them, the price of NYMEX light crude oil has bottomed out since hitting a phased low of $33.64 a barrel on November 2, rebounding as high as more than $43 a barrel, up more than 30 per cent during the period.
Benefiting from this, a number of crude oil-themed QDII funds gained more than 10 per cent of their net worth in November, leading not only in QDII but also among all types of funds.
Specifically, the cumulative net exchange value of US dollars of Yi Fangda crude oil has risen 13.5% since November, and the net value of Warburg Standard & Poor's oil and gas has also risen by more than 13%. In addition, the net worth of QDII funds such as Guangfa Dow Jones American Oil RMB, Castrol crude Oil, Huaan S&P Global Inc. Oil, Southern crude Oil and Nuoan Oil and Gas Energy have all risen by more than 10%.
Although the crude oil-themed QDII fund has taken the lead for the time being, the net loss caused by the oil price avalanche in April has not yet subsided. With the exception of Castrol, which has seen single-digit declines in net worth since the second half of the year, the other funds have all fallen more than 10 per cent since July. Judging from the performance during the year, with the exception of Huaan S&P Global Inc. Oil, whose net worth fell by less than 30%, the rest fell by more than 40%. A number of funds even fell by more than 50%, with the largest net worth falling by more than 60%. From the latest unit net worth, Hua'an S&P Global Inc. Oil has the highest net worth of 0.73 yuan, followed by Guangfa Dow Jones American Oil RMB, 0.63 yuan, in addition, Castrol crude oil is 0.60 yuan, the net worth of other units are less than 0.60 yuan.
From the allocation point of view, there are seven crude oil-themed QDII funds are stock funds, which mainly invest in oil index stocks and alternative stocks, that is, companies that invest in crude oil or oil-related stocks, and the bottom assets are companies of crude oil-related industries; the other is the fund-in-fund (FOF) type, which invests in overseas crude oil ETF or related theme funds, and the bottom assets are crude oil futures contracts. Cathay Pacific Commodities and Citic Prudential Commodities are both FOF, which are allocated to various commodities and global commodity funds respectively, but both funds have heavy positions in crude oil ETF in the first quarter.
Oil prices tend to rise
Or lag behind the speed of economic recovery.
Ni Bin, a Warburg fund, said that on the demand side, the second spread of the epidemic in Europe and the continued deterioration of the epidemic in the United States and India, the two major oil consumer countries, are likely to put greater pressure on the rebound in oil prices. China's large imports in the second quarter, to some extent, overdrawn the import demand before the end of the year. On the supply side, according to the historic production reduction agreement reached by OPEC+ member states, the production reduction plan of 7.7 million b / d will continue in the fourth quarter and is expected to maintain a high implementation rate, while crude oil production in other oil-producing countries, including the United States, is expected to remain low.
Ni Bin believes that the crude oil market in the fourth quarter will probably continue the destocking trend, but the extent of destocking will slow down, and there is a high probability that crude oil supply and demand will maintain a tight balance. Multiple uncertainties in the progress of global economic repair will still restrict the further rebound in medium-and long-term oil prices, and the upward trend of crude oil prices may still be subject to the effective introduction of COVID-19 vaccine. From the perspective of asset allocation, the current time point allocation of assets highly related to crude oil prices is still an effective investment theme.
Southern fund Huang Liang said that looking ahead, the short-term economic recovery is slow, the uncertainty of the international political situation is high, and crude oil demand and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. After uncertainties such as the US election and Brexit are eliminated next year, the global resumption of work and production is likely to accelerate, which should boost crude oil demand, and crude oil prices may show some upward momentum. On the other hand, as oil prices pick up and OPEC+ production cuts decline, releasing more crude oil supply and curbing oil prices from rising too fast, oil prices are expected to rise at a slower pace than the recovery of economic activity next year.
Cathay Pacific Fund Wu Xiangjun said that the overseas epidemic situation in the fourth quarter is still the focus of attention. At present, China's domestic production activities have basically recovered, and products related to Chinese demand, such as copper and aluminum, are expected to continue to be boosted, but there are still great variables in the progress of the overseas epidemic, especially the signs of a rebound in the epidemic in Europe and the United States this autumn and winter, which may bring variables to demand in the commodity market. As for crude oil, we need to pay close attention to epidemic control and industrial resumption in Europe and the United States, as well as the willingness and efficiency of further production reduction in Saudi Arabia and Russia. If US stocks fluctuate greatly because of risky events such as the general election, it may also affect oil prices emotionally. Changes in global commodities, especially the fundamentals, news and emotions of the oil market, will be closely followed in the future.
