On the evening of the 11th, Beijing time, US stocks had mixed ups and downs in early trading on Wednesday, and the Dow turned down. Technology stocks, which have been falling continuously recently, have rebounded, driving the NASDAQ higher.Goldman SachsversusJ.P. MorganRaise expectations for the S&P 500 Index.
The Dow fell 18.34 points, or 0.06%, to 29402.58 points; the NASDAQ rose 173.61 points, or 1.50%, to 11727.47 points; and the S&P 500 rose 17.82 points, or 0.50%, to 3563.35 points.
Wednesday is US Veterans Day. The US bond market is closed, but other financial markets trade as usual, and no important economic data has been released.
The rebound in technology stocks pushed the NASDAQ higher. The NASDAQ fell by more than 1% for two consecutive days on Monday and Tuesday.
Vaccine research and development stimulates position adjustment cycle stocks to regain popularity
So far this week, traders have generally sought aviation, cruise, accommodation, restaurants, and physical store stocks. These stocks have been called “epicenter stocks” by some analysts, and they have been seriously negatively affected during the pandemic. The market's optimism about the prospect of a coronavirus vaccine nearing approval and its potential to boost consumer confidence in going out and traveling contributed to the rebound in these stocks.
However, at the same time that so-called “stocks at the epicenter of the epidemic” rose, the technology stocks that led the market during the pandemic were sold off, causing the NASDAQ to fall more than 1% continuously for two trading days on Monday and Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the energy, finance and industrial sectors have outperformed the market in the past two days.
Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Investments, said, “Overall, I think it's a bit like investors are adjusting their positions. Investors are satisfied with the election results, progress in coronavirus vaccines and treatments, and the company's performance has been stable this fiscal quarter. Therefore, I think investors are looking forward to 2021 and looking forward to an improvement in economic growth and corporate profits next year. As a result, they are increasing their holdings in more cyclical value companies and reducing their positions in technology stocks.”
He added, “I think this kind of position adjustment behavior is healthy. Remember, we've all been concerned about how concentrated the market is — only a few tech stocks rose across the market. Now that we're seeing more companies participating in the current rise in the stock market, I think this is healthy for the whole market.”
Goldman Sachs and Komoro raise US stock expectations
Many strategists raised their immediate expectations for the stock market this week. Goldman Sachs stock strategists raised the year-end target of the S&P 500 from 3,600 points to 3,700 points, and the index is expected to rise to 4,300 points by the end of 2021.
J.P. Morgan stock strategists expect the S&P 500 index to surpass its previous target price by 3,600 points by the end of the year, hit 4,000 points at the beginning of next year, and may rise further to 4,500 points by the end of 2021.
A J.P. Morgan strategist said, “US stocks are facing one of the best backgrounds for continued growth over the years. After long-term high-risk factors such as the global trade war, the coronavirus pandemic, and uncertainty about the US election, the outlook for the stock market has greatly improved.”
The US epidemic has entered the “worst” stage, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases exceeds 10 million
Statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the US show that as of 13:25 EST on the 9th (2:25 Beijing time on the 10th), the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 across the US has broken the 10 million mark, reaching 100,18278 cases, accounting for about one-fifth of the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide.
Authoritative US epidemiologists said that the US is currently in the “worst” stage of the development of the epidemic.
Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Kaplan said on Tuesday that due to the second wave of COVID-19, he is “cautious and concerned” about the risk of a short-term economic downturn, but is optimistic about the long-term outlook.
Kaplan said, “The next two quarters will be very challenging and very difficult. Downside risks continue to rise as the epidemic rebounds.”
Many public health experts have repeatedly warned that with the arrival of cold weather, the US epidemic is entering its third large-scale outbreak period after spring and summer. If we continue to follow current trends, this winter will be “disastrous.”
Since last week, the number of new confirmed cases in the US in a single day has entered the “100,000+” trajectory. Harvard University epidemiologist Mark Lipsich told the “Journal of the American Medical Association” a few days ago that the coronavirus will still spread rapidly. By December, the number of new confirmed cases in the US in a single day may double that of now.
Scott Gottlieb, former director of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), analyzed that the number of new infections in the US may have reached “at least 500,000” in a single day because the actual number of tested and confirmed cases may only be one-fifth of the actual number of infected people.
Many parts of Europe have been forced to resume various levels of epidemic prevention measures such as social isolation and economic blockades. As effective vaccines are difficult to be widely promoted until 2021, the economic recovery of Europe and the US during the year is facing difficult challenges.
Vaccines are far from quenching thirst, and the US economy still needs fiscal stimulus
Northern Trust chief economist Carl Tannenbaum said on Wednesday that the success of the coronavirus vaccine research will not immediately stimulate the US economy. As the US economic recovery is losing momentum, more fiscal stimulus is still necessary.
He said that although the vaccine news and the better-than-expected employment growth in the US in October were “encouraging,” this did not reduce the need for further economic stimulus measures. “I think if we wait for a vaccine to solve all of our problems, then America's economic recovery may be at risk,” he said.
Despite being affected earlier this weekPfizerBoosted by favorable news about the vaccine, the global capital market is in a frenzy, butUBSGroup Chairman Wei Boang warned that even with a vaccine, it would take time for the global economy to return to pre-crisis levels.
He said it could take quite a while for the vaccine to be mass-produced and distributed around the world. “It will take at least a year for US GDP to return to pre-crisis levels. The unemployment rate and pre-crisis growth will take another year or two to recover, so the recovery we are facing will be quite some time.”
Individual stocks in focus
applesThe company held an online press conference to announce the first new laptops and desktops using Apple's self-developed chips. This marks Apple's relationship withIntelThe 15-year cooperation on processors has come to an end, and it is also a major shift in the semiconductor industry.
Apple has previously produced iPhone and iPad tablet processors using self-developed chips. Apple says the new processor can extend the battery life of laptops. Analysts believe that the manufacturing capabilities of Apple's chip partners are more advanced than Intel's.
Online car-hailing companyLyftA number of investment banks have raised their target prices. UBS raised the Lyft target price from $38 to $45. Piper Sandler raised the Lyft target price from $31 to $39. Wade Bush raised the Lyft target price from $37 to $48. Goldman Sachs raised the Lyft target price from $35 to $44.
EU headquarters in Brussels on November 10 reported that the European CommissionAmazonsThe preliminary results of the anti-monopoly investigation, which took more than a year, were reported. Research shows that Amazon is profiting from selling its own products by using data from third party sellers on the platform. The European Commission also announced that it will launch a second round of anti-monopoly investigation on Amazon, targeting its Gold Shopping Cart (Buy Box) and Prime membership features.
Pfizer and BioNTech have signed an agreement to supply 200 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine to the European Union.
IBMversusAMDIt was jointly announced that a joint development agreement has been reached, and the two sides will cooperate on cryptographic computing with cloud platforms and artificial intelligence.