Original title: Vaccine news cheers investors up! When investing in US stocks in 2021, what kind of sectors will be selected?
On November 10 (Tuesday), market analyst Elliot Smith wrote,PfizerThe release of good news on the vaccine side has made investors more optimistic about financial markets in 2021. Barclays believes that because Biden won the election and good news about the vaccine, the two major tail risks faced by the market have been greatly reduced, which bodes well for further inflationary transactions.UBSAdvising investors on the future
Focus on cyclical sectors and avoid sectors that benefit from big technology and home isolation.
Pfizer releases positive vaccine news, S&P hits record high
On November 9 (Monday), US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and German biotech company BioNTech announced that their coronavirus vaccine is more than 90% effective in preventing people who have been infected before, and praised the progress as “a great day for science and humanity.” After this news came out, there was a rebound in global financial markets.
The index once rose to a record high of 3645.99 points, and finally closed up 1.17% to 3545.53 points. On November 10, European tech stocks fell and bank stocks soared, which strengthened analysts' views that the market focus was beginning to shift from growth stocks to value stocks.
On November 9, UBS Asset Management President Suni Harford said in an interview that 2021 will always be a critical year due to the global recovery of the epidemic and uncertainty about the prospects for US fiscal stimulus, but after the latest vaccine news came out, this changed everything.
Harford said, “From a long-term perspective, the market has been rising. Because of the resurgence of the epidemic, some people question how high the market can go, but the market has already considered the prospects for the next two to three years. There is good news about the vaccine, and it may actually be launched in 2021. I think this will speed up the anti-epidemic process and make people have different views on the 2021 market and become more optimistic.”
The technical side of US stocks remains good after a sharp rise. Experts recommend focusing on the cyclical sector
Harford's sentiment coincides with the views of UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele.
According to Haefele, the market reaction so far highlights UBS's recent view: investors need to diversify their investments in the next phase, choose cyclical sectors, and avoid sectors that benefit from big technology and home isolation.
Haefele added: “We have said that the next round of growth in US stocks will be driven by two factors: the end of political uncertainty in the US and the sustainable increase in vaccine-backed liquidity.”
Emmanuel Cau, head of European stock market strategy at Barclays, said that Biden is expected to win the US election, and the good news on the vaccine side has greatly reduced the two major tail risks facing the market, which is a good sign for re-inflated trading.
He hinted that the Republican Party may retain its seat in the Senate, which means that the potential fiscal stimulus package may not be that huge, but the Biden administration will maintain a business-friendly policy while reducing confrontational trade policies, and leading to a more relaxed position on the Fed.
Emmanuel Cau also pointed out that since summer, the market has been more bullish. After the rise in US stocks, the technical side was not that good, but it was still relatively OK. The elimination of two major sources of uncertainty may prompt investors to move from relatively safe havens — bonds, cash, and growth assets — to riskier assets.
UBS's Harford did not suggest a possible re-inflationary deal, adding that Biden's presidential election means to the US, the US dollar, and the rest of the world remains to be seen. In an interview, she said that the market predicts slow and gradual growth in the global economy.
Tara Raveendran, head of life science research at Shore Capital, said that the vaccine produced by Pfizer and BioNTech was as effective as 90%, far exceeding analysts' expectations of 60%-70%, while the efficacy of the seasonal influenza vaccine was about 40%-60%. He stressed that since the recent statement is just news, more details are needed on several factors, including the durability of vaccine protection, long-term safety, effectiveness in various subgroups, including the elderly and vulnerable, and its effectiveness in preventing “mild and moderate” cases.