Abstract

The election situation in the United States has experienced a reversal on election day, which is rooted in the fact that postal ballots are opened later than on-the-spot voting, and the current election situation is good for Biden (264 votes have been confirmed).

The establishment of the system will send Biden to ease the economic and trade conflicts between China and the United States, and carry out cooperation between China and the United States on climate and other global issues. At the same time, the Biden administration will bring the United States back to the orthodox political framework and the global political and economic order. To some extent, these help to ease policy uncertainty in the US and around the world and increase global risk appetite.

• Internal affairs: first deal with the epidemic, and then carry out infrastructure, financial supervision and tax increases in sequence.

1) epidemic relief policy (near the end of 2020)It is expected to pass a financial rescue plan by the end of 2020 to cooperate with the prevention and control of the epidemic. The final size may be 1-2 trillion, boosting the economy and market confidence.

2) epidemic prevention and control (end of January 2021)After taking office, the Biden administration will increase epidemic prevention and control, including mandatory requirements such as social distance, or have a certain impact on the US economy.

3) Climate and infrastructure policy (first half of 2021)Biden will make good on campaign promises to promote infrastructure stimulus packages for new energy, smart cities, roads and water conservancy projects, which could reach $1 trillion to $2 trillion in the next few years starting in 2021.

4) strengthen financial supervision (near mid-2021)Promoting the strengthening of the Dode-Frank Act and the Volcker rules will have a negative impact on financial stocks.

5) tax increase (second half of 2021)Tax increases will have to wait for the economy to recover, and discussions are likely to begin in the second half of 2021.

• Diplomacy: China and the United States may return to normal first, and then the United States will once again actively participate in the global political and economic governance system.

1) Sino-US Trade Agreement and tariffs (first half of 2021)The tariff on China will probably be abolished, but it will not be abolished easily or voluntarily, and it will become a bargaining chip for Biden to negotiate with China in order to require China to continue to implement the first phase of the agreement and increase the degree of opening up to the outside world.

2) Sino-US Science and Technology friction (first half of 2021)Biden may not overturn the science and technology sanctions against China, but may be more flexible in implementing them, such as approving the export of some high-tech products to China.

3) Sino-US Cooperation on Climate and Environmental Protection (second half of 2021)The United States will return to the Paris Climate Agreement or raise environmental requirements for China. At the same time, China and the United States make efforts to protect the environment, which is good for new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power and other related industries.

4) New version of TPP (second half of 2021)The United States may join forces with its allies and trading partners to revise international trade rules and build a "Biden version of TPP". China may face a higher threshold for international entry, but there is no need to worry too much in the short term.

5) military diplomacy (near the end of 2021)Or re-establish diplomatic ties with Iran and Venezuela, or be conducive to oil supply.

From the perspective of domestic and foreign priorities, the election of Biden will be short-term positive for overseas risky assets and may create short-term pressure on US debt, which may reverse the pressure on US debt when it enters the expected stage of tax increase.

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1. The current election situation is good for Biden, and continues to be firmly optimistic about Biden's election.

The election situation in the United States went through a reversal on the day of the election.The US election officially began on November 3, with Trump initially leading Biden by a wide margin in swing states, winning Florida (29 votes) and Texas (38 votes). And with a big lead in big swing states such as Wisconsin (10 votes), Michigan (16 votes) and Pennsylvania (20 votes), the actual election results seem to be a far cry from previous opinion polls, with the first reversal on election day. But

Then Biden began to catch up quickly in swing states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. As of 10:00 Beijing time, Wisconsin and Michigan had turned blue. Biden's lag in Pennsylvania has also caught up from about 15% to 3.1%, and is expected to continue to overtake Trump in Pennsylvania, with the US election experiencing a second reversal.

The root cause of the two reversals is that postal ballots are issued later than on-site ballots.According to the laws of swing states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the percentage of votes won in the election must not be counted in advance before the election, and the vote on the spot should be counted first on the day of the election, and then by mail. According to previous opinion polls and early voting data, Democratic supporters accounted for the majority of mailed ballots, and the election situation in the United States also experienced a reversal on election day because of the chronological order of the two voting methods.

The current election situation is more favorable for Biden (figure 1, 2), and we continue to be firmly optimistic that Biden will be elected.Biden currently leads Trump by 214 votes with 264 votes, six votes short of victory. Biden is still in the lead in Nevada (6 votes), and Pennsylvania (20 votes) may turn blue, making the election better for Biden. Trump's team is pinning its hopes on applying for a recount in Wisconsin (10 votes) and asking the court to invalidate votes counted after Election Day. Judging from the current state elections, Biden has a good chance of being elected:

1) Nevada (6 votes) Biden currently leads Trump by 0.6%, with about 15% of the votes not counted, but mainly from the gambling city of Las Vegas, preferring the Democratic Party. The state will update the data again on Thursday morning local time, but the law allows counties to report final figures on the 12th at the latest.

2) Wisconsin (10 votes) votes have been basically counted, with Biden leading by 0.7%, but according to state law, a recount can be applied for when the lead is less than 1%. The Trump campaign has said it will apply for a recount.

3) Michigan (16 votes) ballots have been basically counted, Biden has a 2.2% lead, and the Trump team has filed a lawsuit in Michigan to stop counting votes.

4) Pennsylvania (20 votes) Biden currently lags behind Trump by 4.3% and recovers 10.1% from 3: 00 p.m. yesterday (Beijing time). The counting rate has also risen from 64% to 88%. The final figure will be released on Friday local time. The Trump team has filed a lawsuit in Pennsylvania to stop counting votes.

5) North Carolina (15 votes) Biden is 1.4% behind Trump and has 94% of the votes counted. North Carolina polling station officials said the election data would not be updated again within a week, and the final figure was announced on November 12 local time.

6) Georgia (16 votes) Biden is currently 1.1% behind Trump, 1.5% from 3: 00 p.m. yesterday (Beijing time), and the vote count has risen from 93% to 97%. The remaining votes were mainly concentrated in Atlanta, leaning towards the Democratic Party, and the final results were released Friday afternoon local time.

Trump wants to make a comeback through recount and litigation.In the face of the current unfavorable election situation, the Trump team has said it will apply for a recount in Wisconsin and try to reverse the current trend of counting in favor of Biden through legal proceedings. The Trump team filed lawsuits in Pennsylvania and Michigan, claiming they could not really visit the counting points to observe the counting process. The Trump team is also filing a lawsuit in Georgia to stop counting votes, according to the Associated Press.

Trump's actions have increased the uncertainty of the election, but the overall situation is more favorable for Biden.. On the one hand, whether the litigation can be successful or not is uncertain. The Trump team had previously filed a lawsuit in Pennsylvania seeking to observe the invoicing process, but was rejected by the court and did not listen to the defense. In addition, as the counting of votes continues, although the final result is uncertain, its lead is expected to expand if it is advantageous to deal with Biden according to the logic that mailing votes are more inclined to the Democratic Party.

two。 Biden's election-reducing policy uncertainty and increasing risk appetite

From the perspective of domestic and foreign priorities, the election of Biden will be short-term positive for overseas risky assets and may create short-term pressure on US debt, which may reverse the pressure on US debt when it enters the expected stage of tax increase.

The US election is drawing to a close, and the uncertainties caused by the election will gradually be eliminated, and the market risk will go down, which will be good for risky assets.Before the election, due to the uncertainty of the election, the market style is somewhat conservative to deal with the possible results of the election and the "October surprise" or "November surprise". In particular, Trump may take various extreme measures to save the election, but as the election dust settles, these uncertainties have been eliminated and the market risk will gradually decline.

According to historical data, there have been seven general elections in the United States since 1992, excluding the 2000 election and the 2008 election (the former due to the winner dispute, the latter due to the financial crisis). In the three months after the election, the S & P 500 index rose by an average of 6.83% (figure 3), the VIX panic index fell by 3.78% (figure 4), and the 10-year Treasury yield rose by an average of 12 points (figure 5). COMEX gold futures fell 3.12% on average (figure 6).

Biden will try to rebuild America's democratic order and global influence, helping to ease policy uncertainty in the United States and around the world and increase risk appetite.Unlike Trump's "unpredictable" governing style, Biden believes in liberalism and multilateralism, promotes economic globalization, has many years of political experience, and is mainly engaged in foreign affairs, so whether in domestic or foreign affairs, Biden will follow certain rules, and policy continuity and predictability will be stronger, helping to ease policy uncertainty in the United States and around the world, and increase market risk appetite.

3. Internal affairs: dealing with the epidemic first or carrying out infrastructure construction, strong financial supervision and tax increases in order.

After Biden's election, the market will pay more attention to Biden's campaign platform and policy propositions (figure 7). In terms of internal affairs, the Democratic Party may respond to the epidemic first, and then carry out infrastructure stimulus, strong financial regulation and tax increase reform in an orderly manner. Among them, the introduction of epidemic response and infrastructure stimulus is less difficult, and the short-term impact is significant; while strong financial regulation and tax increase reform still need to wait for appropriate opportunities, and need to be approved by Congress, investors do not need to worry too much in the short term.

3.1. A new round of epidemic relief bill may be introduced around the end of the year.

A new round of epidemic relief bills may be introduced around the end of the year, with a final size of 1-2 trillion yuan, boosting the economy and market confidence (figure 8).. Since the collapse of negotiations between Democrats and Republicans on a new round of fiscal stimulus bill at the end of July 2020, the two parties have been wrangling and passing the buck over the aid bill, and a new round of epidemic assistance bill is a long way off. The main reason for the bickering between the two parties before the election is to use the fiscal stimulus bill as a bargaining chip in the election:

1) the Republican Party hopes to pass the fiscal stimulus bill as soon as possible to promote economic recovery and win more voters' support for the current government, while also opposing excessive subsidies for individual unemployment (because excessive subsidies will reduce people's employment motivation, it is difficult to reduce the unemployment rate) and aid to state and local governments (because Democratic states benefit more from it)

2) the Democratic Party intends to dismantle Taiwan and let the Republicans make a dilemma, either quickly launch a new round of fiscal stimulus bill according to the plan proposed by the Democratic Party, or shelve a new round of fiscal stimulus bill, and the Democratic Party is also confident of winning the presidential election. I don't want to lower the demand for the size of the stimulus bill.

However, after the election, a new round of fiscal stimulus bill will no longer be a bargaining chip in the general election, and the two parties are expected to return to the track of putting national interests first, or a new round of fiscal stimulus bill will be introduced in the near future. In addition, Trump will also support the passage of the stimulus package for the sake of his own smooth transition after the election.

3.2. Comprehensively strengthen epidemic prevention and control and establish national epidemic prevention and control standards

The COVID-19 epidemic is still raging in the United States, and comprehensively strengthening the prevention and control of the epidemic will be the first measure after Biden takes office, which is expected to be launched at the end of January 2021, which may have a certain impact on the economy in the short term.Biden has accused the Trump administration of taking unfavorable epidemic prevention measures or even "abandoning treatment" on many public occasions, such as campaign platforms, campaign rallies, and presidential debates, resulting in the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States. We believe that after Biden takes office, he will fulfill his previous campaign promises, immediately and comprehensively strengthen epidemic prevention and control measures, force social distance, encourage people to wear masks, strengthen novel coronavirus's rapid testing, and so on. It will continue the Trump administration's support for vaccine research and development, but will increase the transparency of the vaccine research and development process and will not put too much pressure on vaccine research and development companies to ensure the safety and reliability of the vaccine.

To establish a national epidemic prevention standard in balancing economic opening up and epidemic prevention and control, only by meeting the standards can we open up the economy.. Biden's comprehensive strengthening of epidemic prevention and control measures does not mean "shutting down the economy," but strives to balance the relationship between the two and establish national epidemic prevention and control standards. For example, shopping masks, restaurants, bars, schools and other announcement places need to wear masks, increase glass barriers and other prevention and control measures. Only by meeting epidemic prevention standards can the economy be opened up.

3.3. Promote the "climate and infrastructure plan" and raise the expectation of economic recovery

In the first half of 2021, Biden may make good on his campaign promise to promote infrastructure stimulus packages for new energy, smart cities, roads and water conservancy projects, which may reach $1 trillion to $2 trillion in the next few years from 2021 (figure 7).. The Democratic Party advocates actively tackling climate change and protecting the environment, with the goal of achieving "net zero emissions" by 2050. to this end, the Democratic Party has also put forward a "climate and infrastructure plan" of up to 2 trillion yuan in its election platform to support the green economy, new energy, smart cities, and so on. In addition to supporting the green economy, the infrastructure stimulus will also support traditional infrastructure projects, such as increased investment in roads, railways, bridges, broadband and water conservancy projects.

The infrastructure stimulus package will raise expectations of economic recovery, but it needs to be passed by both houses of Congress.On the one hand, the "climate and infrastructure plan" can promote the emergence and growth of emerging economic sectors such as the green economy, and on the other hand, by strengthening support for traditional infrastructure, it can effectively stimulate domestic demand, enhance the endogenous driving force of the economy, and raise the expectations of economic recovery. But such a huge infrastructure stimulus needs to be approved by both houses of Congress, and there may be a game process between the president and Congress, Democrats and Republicans, and the real landing of the infrastructure stimulus plan is much more difficult than comprehensive epidemic prevention measures.

3.4. Strengthen Financial Supervision and re-strengthen the Volcker Rule

Biden will strengthen financial regulation and re-strengthen the Volcker rule, which is expected to be around mid-2021.On June 25, 2020, the Federal Reserve approved a change to the Volcker rule, which was seen as a flattering measure by the Trump administration to Wall Street before the election, which Democrats opposed. We believe that after taking office, Biden will make good on his campaign promises to re-strengthen financial regulation and support the Dode Frank Act and the Volcker rules. But on the other hand, we believe that Biden will not strengthen financial supervision immediately after taking office, but need to wait for the appropriate opportunity for discussion and revision, and we still need to keep our attention in the future.

3.5. It is difficult to introduce tax increase reform in the short term, and there is a high probability that it will be discussed in the second half of 2021.

It is difficult to introduce the tax increase reform in the short term. The premise of the tax increase reform is that there are significant signs of US economic recovery and there is great controversy among all parties. We expect to start the discussion in the second half of 2021. Investors do not have to worry too much in the short term.。

In the short term, the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States is still raging, the economic recovery is slow, and there is even a risk of further downside, which may continue until mid-2021, when the Biden administration will not choose to raise taxes.

In addition, tax-raising reform needs to be passed by both houses of Congress. If the tax increase reform is delayed until the end of 2022 or 2023, the uncertainty will increase further, as Congress faces mid-term elections in 2022, when all members of the House of Representatives and about 1/3 members of the Senate will be re-elected.

If the tax increase reform is passed, businesses and high-income groups will be affected, affecting corporate profits and capital spending, bad for the economy, but good for the fiscal balance of the United States, long-term or good for the dollar.

4. Diplomacy: short-term relaxation of Sino-US relations, the United States will return to the global governance system

Sino-US relations have eased in the short term, but being tough with China is still the tone of Biden, but it is different from Trump in the way of being tough with China, and it is more favorable in the short term. The biggest advantage for China is more development time and relatively certain external environment, and the biggest disadvantage is that the entry threshold of the international market may be raised. The United States will also actively return to the global governance system, changing from "withdrawal" during the Trump administration to "joining the group".

4.1. Tariffs on China will probably be abolished, but they will not be abolished easily or voluntarily.

After Biden takes office, tariffs on China in the first half of 2021 will most likely be abolished.First, Biden repeatedly criticized Trump for imposing tariffs on China and said that he would abolish tariffs after becoming president, which is also clearly stated in his campaign platform; second, the Democratic Party represents American technology giants and capital powers. more inclined to contain China in the form of an international alliance to crack down on so-called industrial subsidies and state capitalism Third, a number of evidence shows that the imposition of tariffs on China has also increased the burden on the American people.

If the tariff is eliminated, the products covered by the second batch of US $200 billion list will benefit most (figure 9).As we discussed in detail in our report "if Biden comes to power to eliminate tariffs," the second tranche of US $200 billion will benefit most from tariff elimination, because the 200 billion list of goods will be more affected by the trade war with fewer exemptions, and exports will recover more slowly in 2020, so they will benefit most from tariff elimination.

The commodities are mainly related to low-tech export products such as minerals, chemical industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, textiles and clothing. Most of the first tranche of $50 billion has been exempted from tariffs, while the third tranche of $300 billion itself is less affected by tariffs, so the benefits are relatively small compared with the second tranche.

Tariffs on China will not be abolished easily and voluntarily, and will be used as a bargaining chip for Biden to negotiate with China.At present, the United States has imposed a tax on about $370 billion of Chinese goods (excluding some exempted goods), and tariffs have become the main bargaining chip in US negotiations with China during the Trump era. Naturally, Biden will not easily give up this important bargaining chip after taking office. Biden may use this as a bargaining chip to demand that China continue to implement the first phase of the agreement, increase the degree of opening up to the outside world (especially the financial and service industries), strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights, reduce import tariffs in some industries, and appreciate the RMB.

4.2. It may not overturn the policy of science and technology sanctions against China, but will implement sanctions flexibly.

Not taking a stand is also a statement. Biden may have acquiesced in the Trump administration's science and technology sanctions on China, and will still exert technological pressure on China, and the technology blockade measures will not be lifted immediately.

Scientific and technological competition between China and the United States has become inevitable, and Biden also promised to build a technological advantage over China by vigorously developing domestic science and technology, and accused China of stealing US intellectual property rights and trade secrets. In addition, in the last two months of the election, any mistake or failure of a competitor will be the target of the other side's strenuous attack, but Biden has been silent about the Trump administration's sanctions on Huawei, TikTok, Wechat and other Chinese companies, and the Biden campaign itself has asked its members to uninstall TikTok, which may mean that Biden may have acquiesced in Trump administration technology sanctions against China.

According to a Reuters / Ipsos poll released on Aug. 31, 40 percent of Americans supported Trump's restraining order on TikTok, 30 percent opposed Trump's action, and another 30 percent said they didn't know how to choose. The poll data may also confirm Biden's acquiescence to the Trump administration.

After Biden takes office, the pace of scientific and technological pressure on China may slow in the first half of 2021, the way of pressure may be more covert, or sanctions will be imposed flexibly.Compared with Trump's aggressive and straightforward technology sanctions, Biden will act more in accordance with Democratic tradition and liberal rules, and the pace of pressure on China is expected to slow and in a more covert manner. In addition, the Democratic Party is also the representative of high-tech enterprises in the United States. under the pressure of many high-tech enterprises in the United States, while acquiesced in sanctions against China, the Democratic Party may relax its implementation marginally, such as approving the export of high-tech products to China by some enterprises, such as chips.

4.3. China and the United States may strengthen cooperation in the field of environmental protection

The United States is expected to return to the Paris Climate Agreement in the second half of 2021 or raise environmental requirements for China. At the same time, China and the United States make efforts to protect the environment, which is good for new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power and other related industries.

Biden advocated strengthening cooperation with China in environmental protection and other fields to benefit new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and other related industries. Unlike the Trump administration's "disengagement" policy toward China, Biden advocates continued cooperation with China in some areas, such as environmental protection.

But on the other hand, the United States should also return to the Paris Climate Agreement or put forward higher environmental protection standards for China, such as higher environmental protection requirements for "Belt and Road Initiative", which has virtually increased the cost of China's economic development. In addition to the field of environmental protection, Biden also advocated strengthening cooperation with China in the establishment of a global epidemic prevention and control mechanism, the North Korean issue, the Iranian nuclear issue, and counter-terrorism issues.

4.4. With allies to revise international trade rules and build a "Biden version of TPP", China may face a higher threshold for international entry.

After stabilizing internal affairs, Biden may begin to unite with US allies and trading partners in the second half of 2021 to promote the revision of international trade rules and build a "Biden version of TPP". China may face higher barriers to international entry.Biden said in his campaign platform that "if the United States does not work with allies and partners to set global trade rules, then China will set rules for us" (If the United States does not work with its allies andpartners to shape theterms of global trade, China will shape them for us.), calling for working with allies to "mobilize more than half of the world's economies to confront China."

The essence and core of TPP is higher standards and barriers to international entry, which not only includes international trade, but also puts forward higher requirements for labor environment, intellectual property rights, state-owned enterprises and other fields.These requirements may be difficult to achieve in the short term, so China will be squeezed out of the international market."Biden version TPP" does not simply refer to the return of the United States to TPP, its realization path can be in many forms, but its essence and core are higher standards and international entry barriers, which restrict China's development in terms of international rules. "Biden version TPP" is just a pronoun.：

1) through rejoining CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, strengthened TPP)

2) We can also strengthen cooperation with European Union, Japan and other allies to promote WTO reform.

3) A "separate door" can also be set up to renew a new trade agreement with allies and trading partners, and the scope may not only include the Asia-Pacific region, but also other regions such as Europe.

We believe that after the Democratic Party wins the election, the possible launch of the "Biden version of TPP" is mainly based on the following four evidence:

(1) Biden was Vice President when the United States participated in the TPP negotiations, and also expressed support for and endorsement of the agreement.

(2) Biden said in his campaign platform that "if the United States does not work with allies and partners to make global trade rules, then China will make rules for us" (If the United States does not work with its alliesandpartners to shape the terms of global trade, China will shape them for us.), together with its allies, will "mobilize more than half of the world's economies to confront China."

(3) Biden made it clear in his campaign platform that the US trade agreement would cover the enforcement provisions of workers' rights and would work to eradicate poverty, child labor and slave labor (We will ensure that America's diplomatic and tradeagreements include enforcement provisions for workers' rights, and we willfight to end the evils of poverty-wage, child, andslave labor).

(4) in his campaign platform to address climate change and environmental protection, Biden said that the United States and the world must achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible and no later than 2050 (The UnitedStates-and the world-must achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions as soonaspossible, and no later than 2050).

Based on the above four evidence, we can reasonably speculate that Biden will participate in the formulation and revision of global trade rules after his election ("otherwise China will make rules for us"). Coupled with his requirements on workers' rights and environmental protection in his election platform, we can reasonably speculate that the revised global trade rules must be of a higher standard, including workers' rights, environmental protection and so on. And this is the core of TPP-higher standards and barriers to international entry.

In the short term, the Biden version of TPP poses two main threats to China.：

• One is that the United States may "play without China", that is, to exclude China, just like Obama reached an TPP agreement with other countries in 2016.

• Second, the standard requirements of the "Biden version of TPP" are too high, and it may be very difficult for China to meet the requirements on a series of issues, such as workers' rights, environmental protection, intellectual property protection, state-owned enterprises, and so on. The threshold for market access has been raised, and we may be "kept out."

But there is no need to worry too much about the Biden version of TPP in the short term.The negotiation of reaching a new trade agreement or rejoining the CPTPP will be a long process, and the relevant international rules should be followed, the negotiation agenda will also be open, and the market will have enough time to react to it, so there is no need to worry too much about the "Biden version of TPP" in the short term.

In addition, the Biden version of TPP will have a trade-off between "more trading partners joining" and "easier negotiations". The addition of more allies and trading partners will make the alliance more effective and more able to "contain China", but on the other hand, it also means that there will be more stakeholders in the negotiations, and the negotiations will become more complex and lengthy.

In the long run, meeting the high standards of the "Biden version of TPP" is in line with the direction of China's deepening reform and opening up.. Protecting workers' rights, protecting the environment, protecting intellectual property rights and state-owned enterprises will also be important topics for China to deepen reform and opening up, and important progress will be made, which will not only help to promote the formation of a new open economic system at a higher level, but also help China to further improve the efficiency of market-oriented allocation of factors and better promote domestic and international circulation.

4.5. It is difficult to fight a financial war against China, and financial ties between China and the United States may be strengthened.

In his campaign platform, Biden said that China may manipulate its exchange rate and hold down its currency, resulting in a crackdown on US manufacturing. He also said that the use of financial sanctions could easily threaten the importance of the US financial system and the status of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

Accordingly, we believe that the possibility of a full-scale financial war between China and the United States is extremely low. In addition, with China's deepening opening up in the financial sector, the Biden administration is also expected to increase its layout in the Chinese market.

4.6. Or will re-establish diplomatic ties with Iran and Venezuela to facilitate oil supply.

Biden prefers to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue diplomatically and return to the Iran nuclear agreement, which is expected to make progress near the end of 2021.. The Iran nuclear deal was reached in 2015, when Biden, as vice president of the United States, said he wanted to provide a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, and the United States and Iran would be able to reach an agreement if Iran gave up developing nuclear weapons. After the Trump administration withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and the assassination of Iran's number two, Sulejmani, in early 2020, Biden denounced the Trump administration, saying he still wanted to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue diplomatically.

Biden may maintain the policy of sanctions against Venezuela, but will impose sanctions flexibly.According to Reuters on October 22, Leo Bodo Martinez, strategist for Hispanic votes in the Biden campaign, said Biden should retain sanctions against Petroleos de Venezuela in the short term. but in the future, as allies and trading partners provide more advice and information, this strategy is likely to change sharply. Biden has no intention of overturning the sanctions policy, but wants to impose them flexibly.

5. Hints of subsequent election events

1. From mid-November to December 4, 2020, the states verified the election results

December 8, 2020 is the deadline for the settlement of any election dispute.

3. On December 14, 2020, the Electoral College voted

4. On January 6, 2021, Congress counted the votes.

On January 20, 2021, the new president was sworn in.

6. Risk hint

Trump's "extreme followers" did not recognize the election results and there were riots; Trump reversed the market through litigation.