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中概股一周精选:跟谁学领跌在线教育,电商快递股受益双十一

China Securities Weekly Picks: With Whom to Learn Online Education, E-commerce Express Delivery Stocks Benefit Double Eleven

富途资讯 ·  Oct 25, 2020 20:55  · Exclusive

A review of the performance of the US-listed stock market in one week

1. The overall performance of the China-listed stock index

Weighting indices such as US-listed stocks have risen 307.93 per cent since January 1, 2015, significantly outperforming the S & P 500 with a relative return of 239.62 per cent.

Note: Chinese stocks and other weighted index components include 59 companies that have constructed a portfolio of equally weighted Chinese stocks, screening Chinese stocks with a market capitalization of more than 1 billion US dollars (excluding state-owned enterprises listed in many places) and adjusting them every six months.

The index of US-listed stocks is up 27.32 per cent so far this year and is down 1.94 per cent this week.

Hot China is likely to be more divided this week, especially in the online education sector. Among them, HAILIANG EDUCATION G and New Oriental Education & Technology Group rose 5.46% and 3.41% respectively this week, while TAL Education Group, youdao and who learned from them plummeted 11.81%, 13.26% and 37.25%, respectively. In addition, e-commerce, logistics, financial technology and other sectors performed relatively well.

The top three gainers this week were Baozun Inc (+ 13.88 per cent) in e-commerce, BEST INC (+ 10.77 per cent) in logistics and LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. (+ 9.99 per cent) in financial technology. Specifically, e-commerce giants BABA and Pinduoduo rose 0.85% and 3.44% respectively, while JD.com fell slightly by 0.22% this week.

2. Chinese stocks rose by TOP10

(1) the Singles' Day Shopping Carnival started ahead of schedule, and a number of stocks in the e-commerce and express sectors rose.

This year's Singles Day Shopping Carnival has been launched, according to data from various parties, such as Tmall's live transaction volume in the first 10 minutes of October 20 exceeded that of last year, the peak number of multi-day orders exceeded 100 million, and the real-time monitoring data of the Postal Safety Supervision Information system of the State Post Office showed that 60 billion pieces of express delivery were born in 2020, and the e-commerce and express delivery sectors will obviously benefit from this. The market also gave positive feedback, with Baozun Inc and BEST INC rising 13.88 per cent and 10.77 per cent respectively, ranking among the top two gainers in the weighted index of US-listed stocks this week.

(2) the risks in the financial technology industry have been cleared, and the head financial technology enterprises have obviously benefited.

The financial technology industry has ushered in a number of positive things recently. In the past three months, it has received two positive statements from the competent authorities. Ant Group's IPO has also begun to show a driving effect, and the share prices of a number of lending platforms have continued to rise. Specifically, LexinFintech Holdings Ltd. is up 9.99 per cent this week, OneConnect Financial Technology is up 6.68 per cent and 360Finance is up 3.91 per cent.

3. China-listed stocks fell TOP10.

(1) affected by Credit Suisse's downgrade and market rumors, who has recorded the biggest decline since its listing?

Alex Xie, an analyst at Credit Suisse, turned bearish on who to learn from, downgraded its rating to below the market from neutral and slashed its target price to $71 from $95, expecting third-quarter profit margins to be affected by fierce competition and a record low conversion rate in summer promotions as the company mistakenly focused on summer projects at normal prices. In addition, it is also rumored that the actual income in the third quarter is less than 2 billion, the market is expected to be 2.12 billion, the sales expenses in the third quarter is 2 billion, and the market is expected to be 1.2 billion.

Affected by credit suisse's downgrade and market rumors, it plunged 37% this week, the biggest drop since its listing, and led a number of Chinese education stocks to fall.

(2) under the impact of multiple bad news, eggshell apartments plummeted 29.52% this week, and the stock price hit an all-time low.

On Oct. 20, NYSE:DNK announced that Gu Guodong, its chief operating officer (COO), had resigned recently, just 16 months after he joined the eggshell.

Throughout the eggshell listing, on the one hand, the company has not come out of the loss quagmire. Since 2017, the cumulative net profit loss of eggshell apartment has exceeded 6.3 billion yuan. On the other hand, the company is riddled with negative news. From online layoffs in disguised form to routine landlords, to CEO investigations, to the closure of online companies, to running away, and to the departure of senior executives, bad news often occurs.

Under a number of negative impacts, eggshell apartments have been snubbed by investors in the secondary market. Since the beginning of the year, eggshell apartment shares have fallen from a high of $13.9 to as low as $2.19, a drop of more than 80%, with the latest closing price of $2.22 per share.

II. Trends of key companies

1. BABA has made a lot of big moves recently: increasing his shareholding in Gao Xin Retail, launching Singles Day holiday, and subscribing for A shares of Ant Group.

Increase its stake in Gao Xin retail: on October 19, BABA announced that it would increase its 51 per cent stake in Gao Xin retail 6808.HK, which operates a hypermarket in the mainland, for HK $28 billion through Taobao China, and would increase its stake to 72 per cent upon completion. In this regard, Fu Rui issued a research report, optimistic about this move, and maintained the "buy" rating of BABA, with a target price of HK $363.

Start the Singles Day Shopping Festival: on October 20, Tmall officially released the new game of "Tmall double 11 Global Carnival season". The biggest change of Singles Day this year is that not only on November 11, consumers can buy in two waves, November 1-3 is the first wave, November 11 is the second wave. For consumers, Singles' Day is 3 days more than in previous years, and the goods can be received 10 days in advance by paying the final payment for the pre-sold goods on November 1. In addition, Tmall released the first battle report of "double 11": the 10-minute live broadcast turnover exceeded that of the whole day last year.

Subscribe for A shares of Ant Group: on October 21, after Science and Technology Innovation Board IPO was registered, Ant Group updated its letter of intent and issue announcement on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. BABA has agreed to subscribe for 730 million A shares of Ant Group.

two。 JD.com fights Singles Day: announces a "double billion plan" consisting of 10 billion subsidies and 10 billion consumer coupons.

On the evening of October 19, JD.com announced that JD.com 's Singles' Day event will start on October 21 and last from October 21 to November 11 for 22 days. In addition, JD.com also announced the "10 billion plan" composed of 10 billion subsidies and 10 billion consumption coupons, which will not only provide commodity subsidies to users, but also provide local government consumption vouchers and various kinds of coupons. In response, Barclays, an investment bank, is optimistic about the performance of the electric fan giant, raising JD.com 's target price from $83 to $89 and BABA's target price from $320 to $360.

3. Pinduoduo's innovative measures: a new method of "10 billion subsidy", online vaccine booking service, and successful daily orders of over 100 million.

Recently, Pinduoduo "10 billion subsidy" online big-brand makeup area, on the basis of existing concessions, further increase subsidies, especially some big-name products once again refreshed into the lowest price of the whole network.

Since October 21, Pinduoduo has launched influenza vaccination booking services in more than 30 cities across the country, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Changsha, Nanjing and Xi'an, most of which are "spot vaccines" in demand on the market. the price is as low as 159 yuan.

In addition, before and after National Day holiday, benefiting from the acceleration of overall social consumption, the multi-day peak of orders successfully exceeded 100 million. A large part of the incremental demand is related to agricultural products. Driven by this, Pinduoduo has become the largest online platform for agricultural products in the country.

4. Baidu, Inc. 's secondary listing: plans to list in Hong Kong before the end of the year

As early as late July this year, it was rumored that senior executives, including Robin Li, met with some investment banks in batches and officially launched the plan to return to Hong Kong for a second listing. It is reported that Baidu, Inc. plans to complete the secondary listing in Hong Kong by the end of this year.

5. New Oriental Education & Technology Group's secondary listing: plans to seek a hearing through the HKEx this week

It follows news that New Oriental Education & Technology Group plans to seek a hearing through the HKEx this week and disclose the prospectus after the hearing on the HKEx's website as soon as this weekend. In addition, Nomura Securities recently released a research report, keeping its "buy" rating on New Oriental Education & Technology Group stock unchanged and setting its target price at $200. At present, Wall Street analysts have a consensus rating of New Oriental Education & Technology Group's stock as "strongly recommended to buy", with an average target price of $182.71.

III. Summary and summary

Full-weighted indices such as US-listed stocks are down 1.94% this week, while the S & P 500 is down just 0.53% this week. By contrast, weighted indices such as US-listed stocks outperform the S & P 500 by 1.41%. Although among the 59 constituent stocks, the number of rising or flat stocks (33) exceeds the number of stocks that fell (26), it is affected by the plunge of more than 10% in the online education sector, especially after learning from whom it has fallen 37% this week. China-listed stocks and other weighting indexes as a whole still outperform the market.

However, considering that US-listed stocks bring together many high-quality Internet companies from China, such as BABA, JD.com, Pinduoduo, Baidu, Inc., etc., as well as emerging industry leaders, such as NIO Inc., Li Auto Inc., XPeng, etc., weighting indices such as US-listed stocks will obviously benefit from the industrial upgrading and consumption growth of the Chinese economy, and will still be optimistic about their long-term performance.

Edit / Jeffy

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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