Guizhou Moutai also chose to release its three-quarter report today. The data show that the net profit of Guizhou Moutai in the first three quarters was 33.827 billion yuan, an increase of 11.07% over the same period last year. Under the influence of the epidemic, it still earned 123 million yuan a day, of which the net profit in the third quarter was 11.225 billion yuan, with a net profit of 122 million yuan a day.

From the perspective of the overall data, in the eyes of people in the industry, it is also in line with the growth expectations of Guizhou Moutai for the whole year, and the year of infrastructure means obviously, and the changes in the series of wines have been greatly "consolidated". In addition, the direct sales of Guizhou Moutai, which is concerned by the market, also kept the data stable in the third quarter, accounting for more than 12% of revenue, which increased slightly on the basis of semi-annual report data.After the steady growth expected this year, a brokerage analyst who has been tracking Maotai for a long time told E Company: "you can look forward to a good start in the first quarter of next year." "

Overall meet the expectations for the whole year

On the afternoon of October 25, Guizhou Moutai Liquor Co., Ltd. released a report on the third quarter of 2020. According to the report, the total revenue of Guizhou Moutai in the first three quarters of 2020 reached 69.574 billion yuan, an increase of 9.55 percent over the same period last year. The operating income was 67.215 billion yuan, up 10.31 percent over the same period last year; and the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 33.827 billion yuan, up 11.07 percent from the same period last year.

For the above data, a long-term follow Maotai brokerage analyst told e company reporter: "from the cumulative growth rate is in line with expectations, and Guizhou Moutai to achieve the annual growth target is no problem." "2020 is recognized by Guizhou Moutai as the" year of infrastructure ". Along with it, Guizhou Moutai lowered its target for this year at the beginning of the year, setting the target for total revenue growth of 10% for the whole year, which is slower than the high growth since 2016. Judging from the overall situation of Guizhou Moutai in the first three quarters, it is basically in line with the target of 10% growth for the whole year.

In addition, from a quarterly point of view, the revenue of Guizhou Moutai in the third quarter was 23.262 billion yuan, an increase of 8.46% over the same period last year, and the net profit was 11.225 billion yuan, an increase of 6.86% over the same period last year. On a month-on-month basis, Kweichow Moutai's revenue and net profit growth in the third quarter was lower than that in the second quarter, with single-digit growth again. However, the growth rate of Kweichow Moutai's performance in the third quarter has been relatively low during the liquor boom since 2017. The total revenue and net profit of Kweichow Moutai increased by less than 5% in the third quarter of 2018 compared with the same period last year. Kweichow Moutai's stock price fell at that time.

As for the situation in the third quarter, the above-mentioned brokerage industry analysts also said: "the third quarter may not quite meet the expectations of investors, but if investors judge the overall situation of the company only by their short-term expectations, it is meaningless. The company is talking about cumulative growth, which has already set an anchor of 10% at the beginning of this year. From the data of the second and third quarters, this growth rate is also recognized in many aspects. And the third quarter was also a large single-digit growth. "

It is worth noting that at the end of the reporting period, the net cash flow generated by operating activities in Guizhou Moutai was 25.111 billion yuan, an increase of 99% compared with 12.621 billion yuan in half a year. The cash flow statement shows that the increase in cash flow from Guizhou Moutai's business activities is mainly due to a significant increase in the inflow of goods and services. In the first three quarters of 2020, Guizhou Moutai received 71.349 billion yuan in cash for selling goods and services, and 46.446 billion yuan for half a year. Compared with the semi-annual report data, Guizhou Moutai three-quarter report received an increase of 29 billion yuan in terms of cash received in the sale of goods and services.

Direct sales channels account for more than 12% of revenue.

The situation of direct sales of Maotai liquor has been concerned by investors. In the first half of this year, the revenue of Guizhou Moutai direct sales channel accounted for more than 10% of revenue for the first time. In the previous three quarters as a whole, direct sales of Maotai liquor still performed well.

According to the data of the three quarterly reports, according to the sales channels, the direct sales revenue of Guizhou Moutai in the first three quarters was 8.433 billion yuan, and the wholesale revenue was 58.713 billion yuan. From a quarterly point of view, the direct revenue in the three quarters was 1.938 billion yuan, 3.215 billion yuan and 3.28 billion yuan respectively.

The above-mentioned brokerage industry analyst told E Company: "A lot of e-commerce and KA channels were signed in the first and second quarters, and the company's shipments in the direct sales channels in the third quarter are actually less than those in the second quarter. In this case, the company's direct sales revenue remains stable." "overall, the ratio of direct sales revenue to operating income in Guizhou Moutai in the first three quarters was 12.12%, up from 11.7% in half a year.

In addition, in terms of product sales, the sales of Guizhou Moutai liquor and series liquor in the first three quarters were 60.145 billion yuan and 7 billion yuan respectively. In the first three quarters of 2019, the sales of Maotai Liquor and Series Liquor were 53.832 billion yuan and 7.038 billion yuan respectively. Overall, in the first three quarters of 2020, the sales revenue of Guizhou Moutai liquor increased by 11.73% compared with the same period last year, while the series liquor was basically the same as last year, or even declined slightly.

For the case of the series of wines, the above-mentioned brokerage industry analysts told the reporter of the e company: "the series of wines are not sold well, but the company takes the initiative to adjust." In the past two years, the growth rate of the Maotai series is relatively fast, and the sales of the series reached the 10 billion mark last year, but there are also some problems left over. This year, the Maotai series did not increase the volume, but the price went up again, which is actually consolidating the market of the series. In the semi-annual report, Guizhou Moutai also explained that it mainly comes from the adjustment of sales channels and changes in product structure.

At the dealer level, we can also see the adjustment of Guizhou Moutai to the series of wines. The quarterly report shows that the number of domestic dealers during the reporting period was 2049, with an increase of 14 and a decrease of 342 during the reporting period. These adjustments mainly come from the series of wines. Guizhou Moutai said that in order to further optimize the marketing network layout and enhance the overall strength of dealers, the company adjusted some dealers of Maotai-flavor series of liquors. During the reporting period, 14 dealers of Maotai-flavor series were increased and 301 dealers of Maotai-flavor series were reduced.

A good start to next year is expected.

In addition, at the shareholder level, it is worth noting that Guizhou State-owned assets Operation Company made a small reduction in Guizhou Moutai in the third quarter.

At the time of the semi-annual report, Guizhou State-owned Capital Operation Co., Ltd. held 4% of the shares. According to the data disclosed in the three quarterly reports, the proportion of shares held by Guizhou State-owned Operation Company was 2.67%. In other words, Guizhou State-owned Operation Company reduced its stake in Guizhou Moutai by 1.33% in the third quarter, reducing the number of shares by about 16.75 million shares. If the central price of the recent share price of Guizhou Moutai is roughly calculated at 1700 yuan per share, Guizhou State-owned Operation Company will reduce its holdings and cash out about 28.5 billion yuan.

In addition, Land Stock Connect Capital of Hong Kong Central Clearing, which is a seat in Shanghai Stock Connect, also reduced its holdings in Guizhou Moutai shares in the third quarter. At the end of the period, its shareholding ratio dropped to 8.01% from 8.45% at half a year, and the number of shares held at the end of the period was 100.64 million shares. According to the latest data, the holding of Kweichow Moutai has increased slightly since October. As of the latest data released on October 22nd, the holding of Kweichow Moutai is about 101.59 million shares, an increase of nearly 1 million shares as a whole.

Guizhou Moutai has become the representative of A-share white horse shares and "making money". Under its influence, the market is used to calling the leaders of various industries "Maotai", including medicine grass, home appliance grass, mud grass, electric grass, pig grass and so on. However, in the period of intensive release of three quarterly reports, the "Maotai people" of A shares have weakened one after another and even plummeted, which has also aroused market concern.

On Friday, October 23, gigabit, known as "game Maotai" and Fuling mustard dish known as "pickle Maotai", fell to the limit. In the early stage, there are Panax notoginseng mutual entertainment, Ziguang Guowei and other thick eyebrows and big-eyed white horse stocks fell. Market analysis this has something to do with the fact that the recent three-quarter data of some white horse stocks are lower than expected.

The stock price trend after the release of Maotai three-quarter report has naturally attracted the attention of the market. After Guizhou Moutai rose to a high around 1800 yuan in early July, its share price has been fluctuating around 1700 yuan recently.

The above-mentioned industry analyst told the reporter of Company e: "Guizhou Moutai as a whole is in line with full-year expectations, and the third quarter is also a large single-digit growth, even if there may be lower-than-expected sentiment among investors, the impact should be quickly digested in the short term. From the market point of view, the supply of Moutai falls short of demand, and the strength of actual demand remains unchanged. If the data of Guizhou Moutai in the fourth quarter still maintains the smooth operation of the overall annual data, we can look forward to a good start in the first quarter of next year.」