The international financial industry in the warring States period was no more developed than it is today.

Qi Chuyan, Han Zhao, Wei Qin, the seven countries each have their own currencies, and the exchange rate is extremely irregular, and the exchange rate is mainly related to the price of grain and the purity of monetary metals.

For example, when a country waged a war and the currency overissued, the reserves of copper declined, and the coins were mixed with other substances, and the content of copper decreased, and the value naturally decreased.

Another algorithm is to determine the price of grain settled in foreign exchange. In the war years, grain was a hard currency. Assuming that the amount of Qi grain that can be purchased by a Qi Dao coin increases by 100% compared with the same period last year, the buying price of Qin businessmen will increase by 100% when they exchange Dao coin.

Due to different monetary standards, the circulation of money between countries was blocked, but this problem was later solved by a Qin countryman.

The solution is not to strengthen international financial cooperation, but to unify monetary standards.

The person who solves the problem is called Ying Zheng.

1、History does not repeat itself.

After 2000, business has become complicated, and standards ranging from division to unity, peace or violence have been played out.

Before the dispute over the kings of traditional fuel cars has been settled, the territory of the automobile empire has been torn open. The number of up-and-coming new energy vehicles increased from 17500 to 1.206 million from 2013 to 2020, an increase of 6,791.43%.

It is an indisputable fact that new energy vehicles are the trend. China has set the goal of reaching a peak of carbon dioxide by 2030 and carbon neutralization by 2060.

To ensure that the goal is achieved on schedule, it is an inevitable choice for fuel vehicles to withdraw from the historical stage; to promote new energy vehicles, we must do a good job in supporting infrastructure-to solve the problem of mileage anxiety, one of the biggest obstacles to the development of new energy vehicles.

But at present, in the small world of the supplementary energy path of new energy vehicles, the big and small "princes" are still inseparable.

2、When the tuyere strikes, the heroes rise together.

In 2020, China's exchange power station industry, which has been silent for nearly 14 years, will finally usher in a new round of vigorous development.

On July 27, BAIC reached a strategic cooperation with State Grid Electric vehicle Service Co., Ltd., and the two sides will continue to carry out in-depth cooperation in the field of power exchange.

On August 20, the power exchange version of Ian S went on the market, and GAC began to lay out the power exchange mode.

On September 16, Geely Technology Group demonstrated the intelligent exchange power station in Chongqing, and announced that the power exchange mode was the first to land in Chongqing Liangjiang New area, and 35 exchange power stations were built in Chongqing this year.

On October 5, NIO Inc. users changed power more than 1 million times, and 155 power stations were built across the country, opening up the power exchange networks of G2 Beijing-Shanghai Expressway and G4 Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway.

So far, there are more than 11400 active and existing enterprises related to the "new energy vehicle power exchange" business in China, and the number of enterprise registrations has also increased by 804.2% compared with the same period last year.

In 2020, the Chinese government also attached great importance to the power exchange mode.

In addition to the position expressed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology during the "two sessions," the executive meeting of the State Council also adopted the "Development Plan for the New Energy vehicle Industry," which mentioned: "strengthen the construction of infrastructure such as charging and hydrogenation. We will speed up the formation of expressways dominated by fast charging and public charging networks in urban and rural areas. "

With the blessing of the general environment of the industry, the "power replacement path" is expected to grow blowout this year.

3、One man's fault is other man's lesson

When it comes to power exchange mode, everyone knows that it is a good business with long-term value.

In the last article, "the charging pile is such a good business, why is no one doing it?" In the comments, there are many readers who are optimistic about the "change of electricity".

Replenishing energy for a long time is one of the reasons why consumers criticize new energy vehicles. In the BaaS system matched by the "exchange party", this battery pack becomes a large "shared portable battery". When there is no power, you only need to drive into the replacement power station, replace it with a recharged battery pack, and immediately "resurrect with full blood."

Public video shows that the efficiency of NIO Inc. to change the power station is about 4: 5 minutes per car, while in the video released by Geely, the speed of changing electricity per car is only 1: 2 minutes.

But investing in a valuable business does not necessarily become a friend of time.Whether the path of the power exchange mode can eventually become the "mainstream" still needs to pay attention to the harmony of the time, the earth and the people.

As early as 2007, Better Place, an Israeli company, proposed a new energy supplement model for new energy vehicles. The company's core logic is that battery prices will not fall significantly, so the replacement model is best suited to the popularity of new energy vehicles.

The following year: 20122013The company bought assets in markets such as the United States, Israel and Denmark and rapidly expanded its network of power stations.

But the sales of the vehicles that supported the change of electricity at that time were pitifully small.Renault Fluence ZE is the only brand that responds to the switching mode, and it doesn't sell well. Statistically speaking, the Fluence ZE ended up selling just over 1400 cars, less than 1 per cent of the planned sales.

There is no object to serve, so the exchange power station is in vain.

And a bigger blow followed. Around 2010, the cost of power batteries for new energy vehicles fell sharply, followed by a devaluation of the company's battery assets and a sharp decline in the company's book value.

In 2013, the insolvent Better Place quietly left the city.

4、A heavier asset than a charging pile.

The exchange of power stations is an asset-heavy industry, with fierce competition and a high capital threshold, so the whole game will be lost if the bet is wrong.

Take the exchange station of the State Grid as an example, the construction cost of the standard replacement station is about 5 million yuan, and 11600 stations have been completed by April. Based on this calculationThe State Grid has invested more than 50 billion yuan in changing power stations.

The unit price for the construction of charging piles is only about 35000 yuan, while the total number of self-built charging piles built by the State Grid is calculated according to a total of 100000, and the investment is only about 3.5 billion yuan.

Despite the large number of charging piles, looking back at the development process of the charging pile industry, it can be described as ups and downs.

Growth rate of charging piles from 2014 to 2016Respectively reached an astonishing22%、743%、233%。

Enterprises have stepped up horse racing to encircle the land and expand the territory, ignoring some problems, such as different construction standards and uneven quality.

With the introduction of five national standards such as "Electric vehicle conduction charging system part I: general requirements", all the substandard charging pile interfaces built before have been invalidated, which has caused a huge financial burden to the company.

The number of charging pile companies in China peaked at 1000 in 2017, and there are only more than 100 left in 2019, about two years later.

5、The splittist "electricity exchange faction"

Just like the charging pile industry at that time.Today, the leaders of the "power change school" are in the early stages of development.Each adopted a wide variety of technical standards.The gap covers everything from the energy density, specification and shape of the battery package to the location of the battery Jack, the design of the vehicle chassis, and then to the battery management technology and the design of power exchange facilities.

For the power exchange facilities for B-end users, the standard gap is acceptable, because whether it is a bus or a taxi, it can often achieve unified management and centralized charging.

However, individual car owners at the C end should pay special attention to it in the process of consumption. If the coverage of the power exchange facilities of the corresponding model is small, and the nearby power station does not fit with the model, the use of the car will face a lot of inconvenience.

The C-end market is so important. The size of China's passenger car market in 2020 is nearly five times that of commercial vehicles, with sales of 477000 commercial vehicles and 2.088 million passenger vehicles in September, according to the China Automobile Association.

But the current sales of C-end new energy vehicles are still greatly affected by the policy. According to data from the National Information Center in 2019, consumers who bought new energy vehicles voluntarily under non-policy influence accounted for only 9.48 percent of total private passenger car sales that year.

The market has begun to formulate industry standards to pave the way for the unification of industry standards and promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry.

On September 17, the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance issued a notice on the preparation of the specification standard for quick replacement of standard battery boxes and the recruitment of participating units.

Coincidentally, at the enterprise level, a total of 20 auto companies, such as FAW, SAIC, Dongfeng, BAIC, NIO Inc., and Ningde era, have signed the Joint statement on the Construction of New Energy vehicles "vehicle-electricity Separation Model Ecosphere". It is clear that the relevant standards for power exchange will be studied and revised.

It is inferred that the specification standard for quick replacement of standard battery boxes will not be launched until 2021.

But what's worrying is thatThe launch of "Quick replacement Standard Battery Box Specification Standard" may be fraught with difficulties.Everyone wants to be the "leader of the alliance", for fear of becoming a "princes' alliance" that breaks up in discord.

6、The standard is different, the winner takes all.

A unified standard means that the best technological path must be chosen.

Similar to the problems faced by the charging pile industry in 2015The unification of industry standards will eliminate the existing assets of some companies that do not meet the standards.Whose technical standards will be eliminated and whose will be used are related to the vital interests of the enterprise.

From blind expansion to collapse, the rise and fall of Better Place has sounded the alarm for us-the coverage of users determines the profitability of the enterprise, which will be the key to the survival of the power exchange mode and an insurmountable moat.In the process of industry standardization, the toughest fists often win.

Nowadays, under the completely competitive market pattern of new energy vehicles, it seems that the great drama of the separation of heroes is still taking place, and it is less than the final draw.

The combination of BAIC Group and National Grid Electric vehicle Service Co., Ltd. covers a wide range of markets in China.

It is known that State Grid has built 11600 exchange power stations by April 2010. according to statistics, BAIC New Energy vehicle sales ranked third in the global new energy vehicle sales ranking TOP10 in 2019.

However, if only in terms of the number of C-end users, I am afraid that NIO Inc., the new force of car building, also has a say.

Data show that by March 2020, NIO Inc. had landed 123 power stations nationwide (increased to 155 by May), covering 51 cities, with more than 17000 electric vehicles, and the penetration rate of users was 48.7%. The cumulative sweep code has changed more than 370000 units.

In terms of future territory, GAC's power-changing version of Ean S also has great C-end potential. The plug-in board Ian S ranked fourth in sales in September 2020, indicating the popularity of the model.

Just like the vassal separatists before 2000, Qin was a powerful state machine, Qi was once the richest country with developed commerce, and Chu had a vast territory and abundant resources.

7、Summary

A unified standard is both a result and a cause.

The unification of technical standards has provided amazing power for the war machine of Yizheng.

Among the unearthed cultural relics, Qin crossbows and arrows were almost produced in accordance with unified technical standards, and any crossbow produced by Qin can be successfully launched on any crossbow machine, thus giving full play to its great combat effectiveness and battlefield deterrence.

From order to disorder, standards from division to unity, is the only way to improve organizational efficiency, profitability and explore market potential. And no matter who wins in this standardized competition, it will be followed by a local chicken feather in the form of industry reshuffle.

If the reshuffle is completed, apart from the winners, the players who spent a lot of money on the wrong track and the investors who joined the Guo army in 1949 will be written in history books like Qi Dao coin and Chu ghost face coin.

If it is not successful, perhaps the whole "power change faction" will be silent from then on, repeating the mistake of changing electricity on mobile phones in those days.

In any case, it is a game with high risk and high return.