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《庆余年》重启,能解腾讯三驾马车粮荒?

Can the restart of “Celebrate the Years After” solve the food shortage in Tencent's troika?

科技新知 ·  Oct 22, 2020 16:08

Source: new knowledge of science and technology

Author: Zhang Zhao

Li Wenliang, an ophthalmologist at Wuhan Central Hospital, posted a message to Weibo Corp on January 7: # which show do you most want to have a sequel # Qingyu.Now "Qingyu year 2" official announced the project, many people came to this Weibo Corp to comment: the remaining year has come.

On October 19, 2020, Tencent Film, Xinli Media and China Literature Film and Television jointly held an annual press conference, at which the news of "Qingyu year 2" was announced, which immediately triggered a heated discussion among netizens. Weibo Corp on the "Qingyu year 2" related topics once rushed to the top of the list, topic reading reached 800 million times, you can see the netizens' expectations of "Qingyu year 2".

The film and TV series, adapted from a dirty novel of the same name, has been very popular since its release at the end of 2019. In order to highlight the importance, Tencent Film announced that it will develop films and TV dramas in the mode of "five years and three seasons". To some extent, the success of "Qingyu years" has reversed the "IP failure theory". For China Literature, Qingyu year has also become a model on the road of copyright realization.

The year 01 has come.

"Qingyu year" is very popular. In the list of "effective broadcast of positive films of member content on various platforms in the first quarter of 2020" published by Yunhe data, Qingyunian ranked second and third on Tencent and iQIYI, Inc. platforms respectively, with 4.215 billion effective broadcasts on the two platforms. At its peak, the effective broadcast market share of "Qingyu years" reached 51.01%.

On the evening of December 2, 2019, a number of netizens said that Tencent's video could not play "Qingyu year" and the words "failed to load the video, please try again later" was displayed when clicking to play. Tencent video official Weibo Corp issued an apology statement, saying that "members broadcast expansion, has returned to normal." To bring inconvenience to all the viewing officers, the goose is here to make amends. Please follow Gosling into Fan House and continue the open life of Lord Fan. "

The appearance of this prompt generally means that the server of the video website crashes, and when there are too many online users on the platform, the server will not be able to bear it.In other words, "Qingyu years" almost rely on its own strength, so that Tencent video platform failure.

In addition to the popularity of the magnitude, Qingyu years also achieved good results in wind reviews, and Douban, which has always been picky about online dramas, also gave a high score of 8.0.

How hot the first season is, how exciting the second season is.

Long before the finale of the first season of Qingyu year, there has been a lot of discussion about the second season. When will the second season be filmed on Zhihu Inc.? The number of page views of the question has reached 4 million, and there has also been a lot of discussion under Weibo Corp's related topics.

In addition to being concerned about the start-up time of the second season, what is most controversial among fans is whether it will be able to scrape together the original crew in the second season. The news that the project was officially launched in Qingyu year 2 can cause such a sensation, which has something to do with the official propaganda point of "the return of the original crew".

In the field of film and television variety, fans attach great importance to "the same class".In the movie version of "Love apartment", "Tomb robbing Notes" and even in the variety show "extreme Challenge", fans have expressed their dissatisfaction on social platforms because they are unable to scrape together their original team.

There are many reasons for this phenomenon, for the audience, good works can immerse them, and then bring the actors completely into the role, and changing actors means that the audience needs to adapt to the role. In addition, the original class to a certain extent means that the quality of the work will not decline significantly.

After "Qingyu years 2" announced the return of the original class, the controversy followed was the discussion about the absence of the heroine Li Qin in the first season, although there was no clear news to confirm this, and Li Qin himself did not reply. But many people said to this: "if there is no drumstick girl (the nickname of the heroine in the first season), abandon the show." "

In addition to the storm of "absence of the heroine", "Qingyu years 2" also needs to solve the problem of illegal broadcasting.

Earlier, at around 11:00 on December 19, 2019, a complete collection of resources leaked in Qingyu year, which triggered a netizen carnival and staged a scene of begging for resources on various platforms. After the pirated broadcast, although the video platform and "Qingyu years" officials tried their best to remedy it, the source of the series has long been flooded with major pirated websites. According to data from the copyright Monitoring Center in 12426, "Qingyu years" has nearly 40, 000 infringement chains, and pirated broadcasts are expected to reach 500 million times. in the face of the large amount of pirated resources on the Internet, this remedy seems out of reach.

Up to now, there is no final conclusion about the source of the film source.But in any case, this pirated broadcast has damaged the interests of the behind-the-scenes production chain of "Qingyu year". If it cannot be eliminated, "Qingyu year 2" may still encounter pirated broadcast.

02 from barbarism to reason

The popularity of "Qingyu years" has reversed the "theory of IP failure" to a certain extent.

The year 2015 is regarded as the first year of IP. Seeing the popularity of "Ancient Sword Strange Tan" (2014), "Thousand bones of Flowers" (2015) and "Old Nine doors" (2016), capital has invested in the road of film and television adaptation of IP, and online works have become a bellwether in the industry. But since 2016, Capital has found that the big IP is slowly failing. Take "City of Fantasy" and "Kyushu Sky City" released in 2016, not only the ratings are not as expected, but also the word of mouth is not satisfactory, "City of Fantasy" Douban score only 3.5 points.

By 2018, more and more "Big IP+ flow Stars" shows on the market have received a mediocre response, falling far short of expectations both in terms of word-of-mouth and broadcast data. To make matters worse, although the industry is tight-lipped, the film and television industry has indeed ushered in a cold winter of capital. The most intuitive phenomenon is that the number of crew in Hengdian dropped from the usual 40 or 50 to about 10 in 2018. Many media blame the crux of the problem on the "Cui Yongyuan incident", but the "Cui Yongyuan incident" only plays a catalytic role at best, and the deeper reason is that the capital is no longer optimistic about the film and television market.

Going back to the IP adaptation, despite the poor environment at that time, there was still the popularity of the "extended Jubilee Strategy" without the blessing of the big IP. This makes the formula of "big IP+ flow star = popular style" questioned again, and "IP failure theory" has become the default view of the market.

In 2019, the summer series "Chen Ling", "full-time Master" and "12 hours of Chang'an" were very popular, and the release of "once upon a time there was a Lingjian Mountain", "Qingyu years" and "Crane Huating" at the end of the year also awakened the market's attention to the adaptation of IP. "Qingyu year" became a popular style of that year.Since then, the argument of IP failure began to be reversed, and the "big IP+ flow star" has gradually become a "big IP+ strength team".

It can be said that IP adaptation grew savagely from 2014 to 2016, gradually cooled down from 2017 to 2018, and then tended to be rational from 2019 to now, all of which are the experience of practitioners in the market.

As for the "IP failure theory", former China Literature CEO Wu Wenhui explained, "copyright operation is a relatively new field and direction for the whole Chinese market, and the downstream industry is not mature enough to be eager for success. "

But in any case, since "Qingyu year", the IP adaptation works on the market have indeed improved.

In the first half of 2020, there were more than 85 new IP works online, and the number of IP works increased by about 25 compared with the same period last year. In the word-of-mouth of IP adapted works, a total of 48 IP works passed the passing line in the first half of 2020, with a passing rate of 59%, an improvement compared with the passing rate of about 42% in the same period last year. It is also reflected in popular works, with five shows with a score of 8 in Douban in the first half of the year, compared with only four IP series with a score of 8 in 2019.

In the second half of the year, with the popularity of "Silent Truth" and "Hidden Corner", the author Zijin Chen's mystery novel trilogy has all been filmed, and the IP adaptation market is still hot, from which we can see that there is no lack of market for excellent IP.

What needs to be vigilant is that although the "IP failure theory" has been reversed, it does not mean that the "big IP+ strength team = popular style" formula is established. For example, the conspiracy, which was broadcast at the same time, was adapted from Zi Jinchen's work "crimes with High Intelligence", but compared with the popular "Silent Truth" and "Secret Corner", "conspiracy" did not make dazzling achievements.

It can be seen that although the adaptation of IP has not failed, it is not realistic to find out a set of popular style formula suitable for the industry.

03 the troika is short of food

At the three annual press conferences on October 19, China Literature CEO Cheng Wu said, "the three companies (Tencent Pictures, Xinli Media and China Literature Film and Television) have become the 'troika' for Tencent and China Literature to deeply layout their film and television business and strengthen the coupling of digital content business. "

If you want the carriage to run fast, there is no shortage of food and food. the success of "celebrating the rest of the year" is food, but it is full of uncertainty if you want to replicate it.

During the broadcast of "Qingyu years", with the help of the popularity of the series and the linkage of IP, the number of online readers of the original works in China Literature's starting point reading APP increased by 50 times, the online reading income of single books increased by 50 times, recommended tickets reached 3.52 million, and gathered more than 2 million fans, and these original fans were also fed back to the video platform.

In addition, the success of "Qingyu years" brings more possibilities to China Literature. China Literature's share price rose nearly 50 per cent during the broadcast of "celebrating the remaining years". China Merchants (International) issued a research report and pointed out that "Qingyu year" has been adapted into a watershed in IP development. Optimistic about China Literature's leading position in IP development and the great potential of the IP adaptation market, maintain China Literature's "buy" rating.

So far, China Literature's market capitalization is HK $65.619 billion, down from HK $92.9 billion on the day of its listing in Hong Kong in 2017. On April 27th this year, China Literature announced the collective departure of the core team, including founder Wu Wenhui, with Cheng Wu as China Literature CEO. In the face of market doubts about China Literature's "IP+ film and television" model, Cheng Wu needs to tell a new story.

Whether in the period of Wu Wenhui or Cheng Wu, China Literature paid more and more attention to the copyright business.

China Literature's revenue from copyright operations has been on the rise since 2014. China Literature's operating copyright and other income accounted for 55.5 per cent of total revenue in 2019. Under the background of the weak growth of online reading business, China Literature's dependence on copyright operation business is gradually increasing.

However, in the first half of 2020, the financial report showed that the operating copyright and other income was 760 million yuan, down 41.5% from the same period last year. It can be seen that there were no small problems in China Literature's copyright business in the first half of the year.

The controversial Xinli Media has also received more attention. After being acquired by China Literature for 15.5 billion yuan on August 13, 2018, Xinli Media has not completed its performance bet for two years in a row. In the first half of the year, China Literature's total income reached 3.26 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7 percent over the same period last year. However, due to Xinli Media's revenue in the first half of 2020 fell short of expectations, affected by the impairment of goodwill, China Literature made a net loss of 3.31 billion yuan.

In this regard, China Literature explained in the 2020 semi-annual report that the film and television industry was affected by the macro environment, and the film and television industry suffered a great impact under the epidemic, and the overall cycle of Xinli Media's film and television projects became longer and the uncertainty increased.

There has always been a debate about China Literature's acquisition of Xinli Media, but for China Literature, who has rich IP resources, it is an important direction for China Literature in recent years to systematically adapt his head IP into TV dramas and movies by integrating the film and television production capabilities of Xinli Media, so as to realize the long-term development of IP adaptation of network literature.

At this press conference, the three families announced the establishment of 56 works in one breath, and its purpose is self-evident.In the troika, for Xinli Media and China Literature, Xinli Media needs to save its reputation of "praise but not popularity" through more works and ease the pressure on performance. China Literature needs to create more "Qingyu years" to prove the feasibility of "IP+ film and television" to the capital. As for Tencent Film, after taking over the China Literature system in April this year, we need to think about how to better integrate China Literature and Tencent ecologically.

Therefore, for China Literature Film and Television, Xinli Media, and Tencent Pictures, they all need to continue to produce excellent works with good reputation and hot harvest like "Qing Yu years" to show their fists to the capital.However, the industry does not have a set of general popular style formula, and it is not known whether the three can create the glory of "celebrating the rest of the year".

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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